ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Word of advise, GFS, Euro and ICON nailed both Francene and Helene's track within 24 hours of landfall. I would not be question them.

BTW, Milton took a nice NNE wobble in between the last two AF recon passes.

That was my thought. I know we so badly want it to come a little South but betting against such impressive proven technology is foolhardy. It can fail but rarely does this close out.

[FLLurker32]

Word of advise, GFS, Euro and ICON nailed both Francene and Helene's track within 24 hours of landfall. I would not be question them.

BTW, Milton took a nice NNE wobble in between the last two AF recon passes.

I’m not so sure that’s a wobble. I switched to 60 frames and you can see the clear progression into a more NNE direction. We’ll see how long it keeps that going.

[Hurricane2022]

[caneman]

Word of advise, GFS, Euro and ICON nailed both Francene and Helene's track within 24 hours of landfall. I would not be question them.

BTW, Milton took a nice NNE wobble in between the last two AF recon passes.

That was my thought. I know we so badly want it to come a little South but betting against such impressive proven technology is foolhardy. It can fail but rarely does this close out.

Since it's expected to transition near landfall, the windfield size could double.

[ElectricStorm]

Drop supports 908mb so 6z BT looks spot on

[ElectricStorm]

Also... Can't tell you the last time I saw a hatched area added for a TC tornado threat

[Bocadude85]

Word of advise, GFS, Euro and ICON nailed both Francene and Helene's track within 24 hours of landfall. I would not be question them.

BTW, Milton took a nice NNE wobble in between the last two AF recon passes.

I’m not so sure that’s a wobble. I switched to 60 frames and you can see the clear progression into a more NNE direction. We’ll see how long it keeps that going.

NNE? The center of Milton continues to follow the right side of the cone.. he did take a more NE wobble but that still wasn’t enough to put him on the west side of the cone.

[FLLurker32]

Word of advise, GFS, Euro and ICON nailed both Francene and Helene's track within 24 hours of landfall. I would not be question them.

BTW, Milton took a nice NNE wobble in between the last two AF recon passes.

I’m not so sure that’s a wobble. I switched to 60 frames and you can see the clear progression into a more NNE direction. We’ll see how long it keeps that going.

NNE? The center of Milton continues to follow the right side of the cone.. he did take a more NE wobble but that still wasn’t enough to put him on the west side of the cone.

It took 2 hours to make up how far behind it was on latitude. I wouldn’t consider a 2 hour progression North to be a wobble. We will know soon enough.

[Poonwalker]

Iam just stunned the models keep showing a landfall so
far north than the official forecast. Very troubling

[sponger]

Based on overnight runs I would expect the NHC to split the difference and adjust a tad North at 5 am.

[Bocadude85]

Iam just stunned the models keep showing a landfall so
far north than the official forecast. Very troubling

Yea lots of conflicting information…especially when Milton is currently hugging the eastern side of the cone. He is now within radar range of the sfwmd.

[kevin]

Note that just 16 hours ago, Milton was forecast to be a weakening 125 kt C4 at this point.

[SteveM]

Something is happening with the eye on IR, it looks like it's contracting but I could be misinterpreting what I'm seeing.

[Blown Away]

Definitely on the E side of the 10pm track… Maybe a slight ENE tug again… Not quite as impressive on satellite, praying it’s starting to begin transition…

[kevin]

Still tracking east of the forecast, but models (which seem to have initialized correctly) either stay put at TB or move north... I don't know what to do with this information. The next 24 hours are gonna be the nailbiter of the century in terms of hurricane tracking.

[xironman]

Also... Can't tell you the last time I saw a hatched area added for a TC tornado threat
https://i.imgur.com/SpN7Hwt.gif

Also rare to see a risk of strong tornados in a TC

South of the boundary, afternoon
RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area
suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In
addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is
forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping
hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential
for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band
will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for
a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to
the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could
occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear
will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist
through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to
the eastern coast of Florida.

[jdjaguar]

The cone was not nudged northward on the 11pm update..

look at the 2am update

The NHC does not release new tracks on intermediate advisories. All they do is update the position.

Speaking of which Milton is still running east of the 11pm track

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/

The NHC adjusts the cone at each advisory.
Which they did at the 1am intermediate advisory.
This adjustment in the graphic was a nudge north.

[Cat5James]

Deeper convection wrapping around the core on radar. Is Milton strengthening when it should be weakening

[GCANE]

Milton is about 25 miles east of forecast track.

No sign shear has any effect.

Eye is 8 nm wide.

Latest eyedrop indicates no forthcoming EWRC.

Well into the Loop Current now.

CAPE in SE section of GoM is slowly increasing.

Ionospheric heating has turned back up. Currently over the Mid East

[kevin]

153 kt FL wind and 910.1 mb extrapolated with 22 kt winds -> 908 mb. Dropsonde might be a bit higher than that based on the bias so far so I expect 910mb/140kt at 5am.