ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/BryceShelton01/status/1843942836028465456

[Chemmers]

Looks like the -80c is trying to wrap around the core again and incredible amount off lighting

Please stay safe everyone

[Hurricane2022]

Awesome

Recon just reported an inner and outer eyewall

Inner Eye Diameter: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)

So I guess it is safe to say that Milton likely has started an final and gradual weakening phase?

[Blown Away]

Was not expecting them to nudge the track north with what appears to be clearly a more eastward component.

appears to now be moving closer to track

Don’t get me wrong at all, the NHC folks are absolutely amazing professionals and amaze me with their forecast accuracy!!

But they do get to reset the track line every 6 hours.

[wx98]

EWRC definitely imminent now given the last VDM and the current “closing” of the inner eye.

[chris_fit]

Awesome

Recon just reported an inner and outer eyewall

Inner Eye Diameter: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)

So I guess it is safe to say that Milton likely has started an final and gradual weakening phase?

So I was OK, but now getting a bit nervous. I'm in Parrish/Bradenton Area. I have a newer home 15 miles inland (but fairly close to the Manatee River) with metal shutters up. I was really hoping to see Milton at at 145 or below this morning. Ughhh. Please let that EWRC do it's thing.

[aspen]

Was not expecting to see that Milton is still a Cat 5 (or at the very least, a high-end 4).

Come on shear, do your magic.

[Blown Away]

Was not expecting to see that Milton is still a Cat 5 (or at the very least, a high-end 4).

Come on shear, do your magic.

Yeah, it does appear to be setting in.

[NAVAIDNICK]

Awesome

Recon just reported an inner and outer eyewall

Inner Eye Diameter: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles)
Outer Eye Diameter: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)

So I guess it is safe to say that Milton likely has started an final and gradual weakening phase?

So I was OK, but now getting a bit nervous. I'm in Parrish/Bradenton Area. I have a newer home 15 miles inland (but fairly close to the Manatee River) with metal shutters up. I was really hoping to see Milton at at 145 or below this morning. Ughhh. Please let that EWRC do it's thing.

If you are in an evac zone, get out now. The risk of unprecedented surge is high and that will include river flooding. Don't know how close is "fairly close" but that's not reassuring. Newer house with storm shutters should be fine as far as the wind is concerned. I rode the north eye wall of Ian as a Cat 4 for over 6 hours in a house built in 2001 boarded with plywood. We got some water intrusion but not bad all things considered. You need to be most concerned for the water. If you are in any risk of flooding, find somewhere else to go now. No one will be able to help once the winds get over TS and you will be on your own until the storm passes.

Edit: Sorry if that came off condescending. You likely already know everything I said, but it was as much for the lurkers as it was in response to your post. Stay safe, my friend.

[pmang6]

Anyone have any ideas as to why the NOAA plane is in an orbit way off to the west of the eye?

[kevin]

New forecast goes right over 25N, 85W so that's something to look at for Milton's short-term movement.

[TBwx1968]

Using a radar to track the eye against a superimposed graphic of the track, is dangerous and inaccurate from a radar 300 miles away. You are not seeing the surface center with a land based radar at this distance. Curvature of the earth plays tricks on the eyes in deception. Let us allow the professionals in the trillion dollar plane that are in the storm, with the super computers tell us the story, not over speculate an opinion from a public weather radar, a time zone away, on our $320.00 Dell laptop with low bandwidth.

[CronkPSU]

Was not expecting to see that Milton is still a Cat 5 (or at the very least, a high-end 4).

Come on shear, do your magic.

Yeah, it does appear to be setting in.

Could also be an EWRC, either is good, both are better

[eastcoastFL]

[chris_fit]

So I guess it is safe to say that Milton likely has started an final and gradual weakening phase?

So I was OK, but now getting a bit nervous. I'm in Parrish/Bradenton Area. I have a newer home 15 miles inland (but fairly close to the Manatee River) with metal shutters up. I was really hoping to see Milton at at 145 or below this morning. Ughhh. Please let that EWRC do it's thing.

If you are in an evac zone, get out now. The risk of unprecedented surge is high and that will include river flooding. Don't know how close is "fairly close" but that's not reassuring. Newer house with storm shutters should be fine as far as the wind is concerned. I rode the north eye wall of Ian as a Cat 4 for over 6 hours in a house built in 2001 boarded with plywood. We got some water intrusion but not bad all things considered. You need to be most concerned for the water. If you are in any risk of flooding, find somewhere else to go now. No one will be able to help once the winds get over TS and you will be on your own until the storm passes.

I'm in Zone C. Homes <150 feet away are Zone D. Our neighborhood is a good 15-20ft above the river. I'm about 1/2 mile from the river. Not concerned about surge coming in from the gulf. The river gauges barely budged up here with Helene. We are also fine with Debby, though many areas surrounded my neighborhood flooded, but that was from rain water and damn releases which should be way less this time around. Worried about the wind, but you provided some reassurance. 2013 Home here.

[chris_fit]

Hot Damn.

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 143 kts (164.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 148 kts (170.3 mph)

[USTropics]

Anyone have any ideas as to why the NOAA plane is in an orbit way off to the west of the eye?

So they did the same thing with Helene earlier this year and I was curious why:


Turns out they were releasing one of their new drones into Helene:


Check out this article for more details - https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane-helene-breaking-records-in-hurricane-data-collection/

They've done this before as well when there was an instrument issue. So going with they're preparing something (like releasing a drone again) or having an instrument issue atm.

[SteveM]

Starting to look visibly worse now on IR.

[pmang6]

Anyone have any ideas as to why the NOAA plane is in an orbit way off to the west of the eye?

So they did the same thing with Helene earlier this year and I was curious why:
https://i.imgur.com/Ds2vrHC.png

Turns out they were releasing one of their new drones into Helene:
https://i.imgur.com/jIsGBgp.png

Check out this article for more details - https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane-helene-breaking-records-in-hurricane-data-collection/

They've done this before as well when there was an instrument issue. So going with they're preparing something (like releasing a drone again) or having an instrument issue atm.

See, I had heard about this, and it crossed my mind when I asked, but my understanding was that they were dropping these in the eye. Very cool either way. I have thought for a long time that a swarm of small cheap UAS could give new insight into storms. Imagine if instead of sporadic recon flights we had a thousands strong swarm of vehicles similar to this one following the storm and providing non-stop, real time data. Lots and lots of practicality issues there, I'm sure, but its something that pops into my head often.

[NAVAIDNICK]

So I was OK, but now getting a bit nervous. I'm in Parrish/Bradenton Area. I have a newer home 15 miles inland (but fairly close to the Manatee River) with metal shutters up. I was really hoping to see Milton at at 145 or below this morning. Ughhh. Please let that EWRC do it's thing.

If you are in an evac zone, get out now. The risk of unprecedented surge is high and that will include river flooding. Don't know how close is "fairly close" but that's not reassuring. Newer house with storm shutters should be fine as far as the wind is concerned. I rode the north eye wall of Ian as a Cat 4 for over 6 hours in a house built in 2001 boarded with plywood. We got some water intrusion but not bad all things considered. You need to be most concerned for the water. If you are in any risk of flooding, find somewhere else to go now. No one will be able to help once the winds get over TS and you will be on your own until the storm passes.

I'm in Zone C. Homes <150 feet away are Zone D. Our neighborhood is a good 15-20ft above the river. I'm about 1/2 mile from the river. Not concerned about surge coming in from the gulf. The river gauges barely budged up here with Helene. We are also fine with Debby, though many areas surrounded my neighborhood flooded, but that was from rain water and damn releases which should be way less this time around. Worried about the wind, but you provided some reassurance. 2013 Home here.

Ok. Were it me, I would still leave because the authorities issued a mandatory evac for your zone, but I understand your logic. I have lots of neighbors that are less than .5 mile from me in Zone B that are staying. I've never been more scared in my life than I was with Ian, so it won't be fun, but even if Milton comes in as a low Cat 4, your house should be fine as far as the wind is concerned. I caveat that without knowing if there are many trees around you that could fall on the house. Whatever the case, stay safe my friend.