ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

Looks like an EWRC has started. Not sure whether Milton will fully recover before landfall due to the increase in the shear in the next 24 hours. We might never see a clear eye in Milton again before landfall. As expected by the NHC, it will most likely significantly expand the wind field.

[USTropics]

Starting to look visibly worse now on IR.

There is definitely an EWRC imminent imo, eye diameter has essentially gone to ~1-2 miles on mesoscale. The hurricane models last night were showing the wind field expansion occurring around 8AM this morning, so not too far off. Trough interaction around 2PM ET time today will really start to kick in and get that process going in earnest. We've likely seen the last of Milton as a category 5 if this is true, but the surge extent again could extend beyond normal spatial bounds:

[jlauderdal]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Are you evacuating to sofla?

[eastcoastFL]

Milton is still hugging that right side of the cone.

[chris_fit]

Windfield looks like it has really expanded to the east, especially hurricane winds. Looks like over 100m now? Western side looks to be the weaker side.

[USTropics]

Anyone have any ideas as to why the NOAA plane is in an orbit way off to the west of the eye?

So they did the same thing with Helene earlier this year and I was curious why:
https://i.imgur.com/Ds2vrHC.png

Turns out they were releasing one of their new drones into Helene:
https://i.imgur.com/jIsGBgp.png

Check out this article for more details - https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane-helene-breaking-records-in-hurricane-data-collection/

They've done this before as well when there was an instrument issue. So going with they're preparing something (like releasing a drone again) or having an instrument issue atm.

See, I had heard about this, and it crossed my mind when I asked, but my understanding was that they were dropping these in the eye. Very cool either way. I have thought for a long time that a swarm of small cheap UAS could give new insight into storms. Imagine if instead of sporadic recon flights we had a thousands strong swarm of vehicles similar to this one following the storm and providing non-stop, real time data. Lots and lots of practicality issues there, I'm sure, but its something that pops into my head often.

You're absolutely right, normally they would just release these in the eye, but I'm thinking they want to get additional data on the progression of this trough interaction coming up and the environment to Milton's west. Milton is on the edge of the knife, so to speak, of whether dry air entrainment and wind shear will kick in and significantly degrade the system right before landfall, or if trough interaction and current intensity will allow Milton to maintain category 3/4 strength up to landfall:

[eastcoastFL]

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Are you evacuating to sofla?

I booked a room in Ft. Lauderdale but I’m still kinda TBD. Rain is my worry and there’s no rain on the south side. But if he keeps wobbling right the core could end up over us so tough call right now.

[TheBigO]

Not gonna be a fun 48 hours. Stay safe my Tampa metro friends to the west. Hope you got all of your prep completed and got out of town if you needed to. Less wind in my parts than expected earlier in the week, but all this rain hitting our already full ponds and lakes is going to end up causing a real mess.

[pmang6]

So they did the same thing with Helene earlier this year and I was curious why:
https://i.imgur.com/Ds2vrHC.png

Turns out they were releasing one of their new drones into Helene:
https://i.imgur.com/jIsGBgp.png

Check out this article for more details - https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane-helene-breaking-records-in-hurricane-data-collection/

They've done this before as well when there was an instrument issue. So going with they're preparing something (like releasing a drone again) or having an instrument issue atm.

See, I had heard about this, and it crossed my mind when I asked, but my understanding was that they were dropping these in the eye. Very cool either way. I have thought for a long time that a swarm of small cheap UAS could give new insight into storms. Imagine if instead of sporadic recon flights we had a thousands strong swarm of vehicles similar to this one following the storm and providing non-stop, real time data. Lots and lots of practicality issues there, I'm sure, but its something that pops into my head often.

You're absolutely right, normally they would just release these in the eye, but I'm thinking they want to get additional data on the progression of this trough interaction coming up and the environment to Milton's west. Milton is on the edge of the knife, so to speak, of whether dry air entrainment and wind shear will kick in and significantly degrade the system right before landfall, or if trough interaction and current intensity will allow Milton to maintain category 3/4 strength up to landfall:

https://i.imgur.com/UZOCdOA.png

Right, get a low level recon as well as a broader picture of the environment with just one crew and one plane (well, one big plane with people in it and one little guy.) Makes sense to me. Can't wait so see how this technology evolves over the coming years. Could really be a force multiplier for the HHs.

[tolakram]

So I was OK, but now getting a bit nervous. I'm in Parrish/Bradenton Area. I have a newer home 15 miles inland (but fairly close to the Manatee River) with metal shutters up. I was really hoping to see Milton at at 145 or below this morning. Ughhh. Please let that EWRC do it's thing.

If you are in an evac zone, get out now. The risk of unprecedented surge is high and that will include river flooding. Don't know how close is "fairly close" but that's not reassuring. Newer house with storm shutters should be fine as far as the wind is concerned. I rode the north eye wall of Ian as a Cat 4 for over 6 hours in a house built in 2001 boarded with plywood. We got some water intrusion but not bad all things considered. You need to be most concerned for the water. If you are in any risk of flooding, find somewhere else to go now. No one will be able to help once the winds get over TS and you will be on your own until the storm passes.

I'm in Zone C. Homes <150 feet away are Zone D. Our neighborhood is a good 15-20ft above the river. I'm about 1/2 mile from the river. Not concerned about surge coming in from the gulf. The river gauges barely budged up here with Helene. We are also fine with Debby, though many areas surrounded my neighborhood flooded, but that was from rain water and damn releases which should be way less this time around. Worried about the wind, but you provided some reassurance. 2013 Home here.

Looks like you are making a pretty dumb decision Chris, be sure to check in after the storm, hopefully it goes south. I worry about those who think they know what will happen and use a hurricane that moved hundreds of miles offshore as an example. Good luck.

[aspen]

Looks like an EWRC has started. Not sure whether Milton will fully recover before landfall due to the increase in the shear in the next 24 hours. We might never see a clear eye in Milton again before landfall. As expected by the NHC, it will most likely significantly expand the wind field.

Shear is gonna be picking up at some point today (fingers crossed). The combination of that with trough interaction and the EWRC should prevent any sort of recovery. Unfortunately, Milton’s refusal to start weakening overnight means a Cat 4 landfall is on the table, as now explicitly forecast by the NHC.

[alan1961]

Area of ionospheric heating is starting to come over Milton and there is a massive hot tower now firing on the west eyewall.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Gcane you mentioned the possibility of a quake around the yucatan due to the ionospherics..is this the one i wonder?

[pmang6]

Last VDM has 913mb, Dvorak weakening flag is on, and the eye has begun to cool/cloud over on IR. C'mon dry air, hop in, the water's nice!

[eastcoastFL]

915mb

Not what I hoped to see this morning as Milton comes into radar range.

[eastcoastFL]

Based on the shear map he’s been under 40kts of shear for a while and it’s not making much of a difference so far.

[pmang6]

Dvorak rapid dissipation flag now on, for whatever that's worth.

[kevin]

Slight wobble N in the last 10 minutes on IR floater, even though it's difficult to say with the eye disappearing. Still south-east of the forecast though.

[chris_fit]

I think at this point, this is one of the least atheistically pleasing cat 5 I've ever seen.

[eastcoastFL]

Dvorak rapid dissipation flag now on, for whatever that's worth.

What does that mean?

[Mike33534]

Already a whirlwind of a morning, woke up 430, refreshed nhc etc.. not much changed looked at radar, trending east of line, i thought to myself, all good, time to go back to bed. refreshed models thread, read the panic about the models trending back north again - checked 5am update, not much happened or changed. New GFS comes out, now back south again. Wish i had just fallen back asleep and not woken up, would have had regular sleep - worry for nothing, still looks to be going south sarasota/venice/port charlotte as it continues east of the forecast plots.