ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

The eye is becoming clearer again on IR, which makes it easier to pinpoint the location. I currently have it at 25.32N, 84.69W. Recon confirmed 24.7N, 85.0W at 10:23z. That means that Milton's average movement over the last 2 hours was 24 degrees east of north aka NNE. Its heading will probably become more NE soon, but that's a significant wobble to the north and puts it almost exactly back on the forecast track.

It's looking very similar to what we were seeing yesterday at this time with the completion of the EWRC. Already deep convection is wrapping around the center.

[jasons2k]

If it gets this EWRC done, Tampa area is staring at a cat 4 landfall. May god have mercy on their souls!

*venice area

Successful eyewall replacement and a more intact storm will go further north in this case.

[jasons2k]

Tornado Alley in these bands as they come ashore today.

[Janie2006]

“The bottom line is that anyone located within
an evacuation zone under evacuation orders or who has been ordered
to evacuate otherwise should follow the guidance of local
authorities and leave if told to do so. It`s a decision that could
save your life.”

The NHC is necessarily a rather conservative organization. Whenever you see wording such as this you’d best heed the advice. Now isn’t the time for obstinacy or false bravado. If you’re in an evacuation zone…leave.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Shear will remain relatively low until 00z per the GFS, before rapidly increasing. There is room for another peak today, or at the least steady strength.

[Ubuntwo]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

Tony, I agree with your sentiment. But one correction - many hurricanes with pinhole eyes undergo ERC. Wilma famously went through several, expanding from the smallest eye on record to a colossal truck tire eye by the time it passed over southern florida.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Milton has definitely taken a toll and could be under another EWRC, but he is one stubborn storm. Stayed at cat 5 longer than what pretty much everyone though, and now it's looking like a cat 4 set for landfall pretty close to Tampa. Whether or not this triggers the worst-case surge scenario for Tampa, things def aren't looking better for the region.

There also seems to be a burst of hot towers in the previously weaker (convectively) side of the storm as well. He's insisting on fighting, unfortunately.

[Janie2006]

“The bottom line is that anyone located within
an evacuation zone under evacuation orders or who has been ordered
to evacuate otherwise should follow the guidance of local
authorities and leave if told to do so. It`s a decision that could
save your life.”

The NHC is necessarily a rather conservative organization. Whenever you see wording such as this you’d best heed the advice. Now isn’t the time for obstinacy or false bravado. If you’re in an evacuation zone…leave.

[johngaltfla]

Seems to be undergoing eyewall replacement and if successful would mean a stronger storm less influenced by the shear and a more northerly component. Final landfall will likely come down to some wobbles just before landfall, and I’m concerned a stronger northern side of the storm will act to “tug” Milton a couple times north as he approaches the coast.

Long story short: nobody around Tampa Bay should be sounding an all clear.

Which would validate a 35-40 degree heading and some of the models (which have been very good) which project a Lido Key to Anna Maria landfall.

[dukeblue219]

941mb extrapolated minimum on that NOAA pass, but with FL winds of 104kt at that point. Curious if they didn't enter the eye or if the center is very irregular at the moment.

[kevin]

Recon passed about 8 - 10 miles south of the eye, lowest pressure was 941.6 mb extrapolated with 107 kt winds.

[caneman]

If it gets this EWRC done, Tampa area is staring at a cat 4 landfall. May god have mercy on their souls!

*venice area

Nope. Tampa to Sarasota Manatee line

[johngaltfla]

New 6 hour average heading based off latest recon fix gives me 37 deg.

Consistent readings. Thanks NDG

[underthwx]

“The bottom line is that anyone located within
an evacuation zone under evacuation orders or who has been ordered
to evacuate otherwise should follow the guidance of local
authorities and leave if told to do so. It`s a decision that could
save your life.”

The NHC is necessarily a rather conservative organization. Whenever you see wording such as this you’d best heed the advice. Now isn’t the time for obstinacy or false bravado. If you’re in an evacuation zone…leave.

Well said....

[NDG]

Interesting that the NOAA recon didn't penetrate the eye on their latest pass.

[Centralflamama]

Staying nervous here in Polk - also keeping Anna Maria in prayers - Milton looking like it’s going to add insult to injury. Any idea what we can expect in Polk? Irma was pretty terrifying here and I’m afraid this might be a bit more intense?

[jasons2k]

Burst of lightning in the eyewall.

[tallywx]

I don’t ever post, heck, I hardly even lurk as much as I would like to but this season being what it has been lured me here.

Look everybody. Since yesterday I’ve seeing nonstop downcasting posts either saying “It’s peaked” or now it’s “The worst looking cat 4 I’ve ever seen”. Neither of these statements hold water. We definitely don’t need to be lulling lurkers like myself into a false sense of security.

NHC and local governments have made it profoundly clear how much respect this storm deserves. I’m just saying we should be more mindful of our wording at such a perilous time. My two cents? Milton has defied literally every expectation set for it. PLEASE stop making him say hold my beer and prove us wrong again. We don’t have much more time. His compact tight core and small size are a big part of why this happened IMO.

But lastly….I have never seen a ‘Cane EWRC a pinhole eye. Ever. So again…let’s stop giving Milton reasons to overachieve. Prays and best wishes everyone stay safe and PLEASE evacuate if you’re in the way.

Tony, I agree with your sentiment. But one correction - many hurricanes with pinhole eyes undergo ERC. Wilma famously went through several, expanding from the smallest eye on record to a colossal truck tire eye by the time it passed over southern florida.

I thought Wilma went truck tire because it wrecked its existing core over land and then built a large one once re-emerging over water. Different from EWRC.

[johngaltfla]

Clear wobble north on IR as the eye filled in. Average heading of the last few hours still takes it to Sarasota.

I swear if one of these developers dug up our Indian burial mound shield, I will be pissed.

[jfk08c]

Staying nervous here in Polk - also keeping Anna Maria in prayers - Milton looking like it’s going to add insult to injury. Any idea what we can expect in Polk? Irma was pretty terrifying here and I’m afraid this might be a bit more intense?

Should be relatively similar. I think we saw around 80mph peak gusts in Bartow. Most of the gust maps I've seen show something to that nature