ATL: MILTON - Models

[kevin]

06z Euro still north, perhaps even a tiny bit north of the bay. So ICON/Euro are sticking to a north solution and GFS goes south. I tend to put more faith into ICON & Euro, but at this point watching real-time imagery is more valuable imo than looking at the models.

[ronjon]

Latest 06z Euro shows southern Pinellas County, I am not sure about timing, it will really have to start slowing down later today to be so late.

https://i.imgur.com/SOd3jyQ.gif

The nhc in their 5 am discussion mentioned a second trough coming in that forces Milton to turn east. Perhaps the first trough lifts out and causes a slow down before second trough affects the motion?

[Steve]

NAVGEM continues to be alone in showing a tropical landfall on Bermuda. All the other models show full absorption by the front or, at most, a strung-out subtropical system.

https://i.imgur.com/vKVHu1G.png

If the NAVGEM shows it then I think it's safe to plan for a nice day on the beach. Facetious of course. Mostly.

Forgive me if there’s a better thread for this (and I’ll happily relocate it if so), why is NAVGEM looked down upon so much?

Wild swings and solutions at times and one of the worst verifications. There was one season way back that it did fairly well. But otherwise it’s mostly an ignore. It’s better than clipper so technically not what they call a bad model. But I don’t use it.

[NDG]

In case some are wondering what the latest HR Regional Models are showing for landfall.

[Kazmit]

What correlation is there between speed and track here? Milton seems to be moving faster than forecast right now. What do the faster models do?

[tolakram]

So here we are with another storm heading to the coast and the ICON does not match the NHC landfall location. Will it be most accurate again?

ICON

[tolakram]

Euro


GFS


UK

[johngaltfla]

So here we are with another storm heading to the coast and the ICON does not match the NHC landfall location. Will it be most accurate again?

ICON
https://i.imgur.com/XcIfURn.png

ICON and COAMPS have been pretty consistent with a Longboat Key to South Pinellas solution.

[Steve]

What correlation is there between speed and track here? Milton seems to be moving faster than forecast right now. What do the faster models do?

Idk. I haven’t looked at timing since Sunday or Monday. Should all be in the 12-18 hour landfall range now so it should be easy to check. I know EC was slower.

[CronkPSU]

Icon still right up tampa bay...

[BobHarlem]

0z icon, still over st pete, out Cape Canaveral

[cheezyWXguy]

0z icon, still over st pete, out Cape Canaveral

https://i.imgur.com/16hZBxS.gif

Man, it actually shows it deepening 9mb over the next 6 hours. Must expect some recovery after the ewrc

[NDG]

Close up look of latest 12z ICON, up Tampa Bay into downtown Tampa.

[ronjon]

12z ICON much faster with 9 pm landfall.

[CronkPSU]

GFS looks slower than the other models but same general landfall spot as the last run

[BobHarlem]

12z canadian in Bradenton, out Cape Canaveral.

[Poonwalker]

It’s actually slightly west of the 06z Hafs-a - 26N 84.5W. The Hafs are the models Iam watching. So far they have been stellar on this storm. The speed of the storm is also going to be critical here. If it keeps going fast it won’t turn at a longitude that spares Tampa in my opinion.

[Poonwalker]

Wow. Hafs-a shows a more pronounced turn NE and ENE which spares Tampa and lands just north of Sarasota. Hafs-b is a bit north into Bradenton. Both will spare Tampa Bay though. Hmon into Anna Maria island. HWRF into Bradenton. That’s about as close as it gets for Tampa residents that live in surge vulnerable areas. Have to pray there is no bad wobble.

[sponger]

That was a very significant jump South by the GFS, Unfortunately, Milton is not listening.

[kevin]

12z Euro has started, pretty good initialization of Milton at 12z.