ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Not sure if I told you guys my heart hurts for Ana Maria, among the other Islands around Sarasota down to Venice.
But Ana Maria has always been my favorite because it almost sits as if in the middle of the Ocean between the Gulf and Tampa Bay.
Unfortunately I feel that many buildings are going to be wiped off their foundation because of where it sits, especially if the eye of Milton tracks over the Island they will get a surge from both directions. Being that is such a low lying island the storm surge is going to go through the Island without a problem.
I feel bad for one of my cousins and my aunt who live in the Island right on the water. They already had damage to two of their houses that sit on the ground, one of the houses located right on Bean Point he had it for sale on the market before Helene, he had 3' of water in it. Check out how beautiful that house was. I had the pleasure to stay there a couple of times a few years ago.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/865- ... 3687_zpid/

[Mike33534]

The day Helene made landfall GFS like a week later i think it was, had this storm coming into tampa bay, but of course it was a week early heh now to see if it checks out

[johngaltfla]

Not sure if I told you guys my heart hurts for Ana Maria, among the other Islands around Sarasota down to Venice.
But Ana Maria has always been my favorite because it almost sits as if in the middle of the Ocean between the Gulf and Tampa Bay.
Unfortunately I feel that many buildings are going to be wiped off their foundation because of where it sits, especially if the eye of Milton tracks over the Island they will get a surge from both directions. Being that is such a low lying island the storm surge is going to go through the Island without a problem.
I feel bad for one of my cousins and my aunt who live in the Island right on the water. They already had damage to two of their houses that sit on the ground, one of the houses located right on Bean Point he had it for sale on the market before Helene, he had 3' of water in it. Check out how beautiful that house was. I had the pleasure to stay there a couple of times a few years ago.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/865- ... 3687_zpid/

Some of our people have been out there after Helene. There were homes east of Gulf Drive with 5 feet of sand in their living room. The infrastructure is a mess. I have been fishing many a time on that fishing pier so losing it is going to be heartbreaking. One of my customers has a house off Palma Sola Bay and he just took his dog, clothes, papers and bugged out. He knows it's a goner if the surge forecasts are correct. This is going to be a tough time for us long time natives and residents.

[Poonwalker]

Milton is using his twin to defend his north side

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

Milton better slow down and start heading more east or the ICON & Euro are going to be correct of a direct hit into Tampa Bay.

[kevin]

Almost looks like a NW movement of the center on IR. But IR is most likely deceiving at this point due to the ongoing EWRC. Anxiously waiting for the next recon pass to give us a better idea of the center fix.

[ROCK]

:uarrow: Milton better slow down and start heading more east or the ICON & Euro are going to be correct of a direct hit into Tampa Bay.

18Z ICON yesterday had it right up the bay. Hard to go against the model of the year so far. JMO.

[weathernet]

Everyone not in the path of this hurricane please pray for us....our local media is really downplaying this thing I am ready staying at home non evac not on the coast hope we make it ok.
Tim

[Michele B]

Interesting

AF300's latest VDM didn't mention a double eyewall.

Let's see what Miss Piggy has to say

G, how’s our tornado outlook for the southern half of Florida?

10:00 now, confirmed fairly large, strong tornado going through Big Cypress Indian Res. - riding right up the Snake Rd, north of Alligator alley.

[kevin]

If there is still time for you to safely escape please do so. I can't force you, but there's a reason that there are mandatory evacuations. Don't die because some local media thinks they know better.

[Weatherboy1]

Just FYI - Riding this out in central SRQ. In a very strong high-rise building high enough (3rd) floor to avoid surge and well stocked with everything needed to be self sufficient for some time. Will see how it goes. Obviously not that bad yet. Am somewhat encouraged by recent satellite trends which suggest shear is starting to knock Milton back a bit as expected. But also expecting 3/4 borderline winds.

[Michele B]

He’s not just right of the track line he’s all the way on the right edge of he cone. What I’m afraid of is that he may start that bend to the east sooner than expected.

Tampa means "Peace River."

[johngaltfla]

Just FYI - Riding this out in central SRQ. In a very strong high-rise building high enough (3rd) floor to avoid surge and well stocked with everything needed to be self sufficient for some time. Will see how it goes. Obviously not that bad yet. Am somewhat encouraged by recent satellite trends which suggest shear is starting to knock Milton back a bit as expected. But also expecting 3/4 borderline winds.

Not too far from you out by Palmer Ranch. Buckle up this is going to get noisy...

[kevin]

Three tornado warnings went up in the last 15 minutes.

[SVT1118]

So do we have a better idea yet where this is going? Girlfriend's parents live in St Pete Beach. They booked a flight on monday to evacuate tuesday, but all flights got cancelled. They are headed up by Seminole and a few miles inland to stay with a family member. They didn't have a car because it was totaled during Helene. I'm getting very worried for them.

[Kazmit]

So if Milton does go south of Florida, the prevailing winds will be from the east before landfall. Won't this send much of the water in Tampa Bay into the west side of it, aka St. Pete? Or is it more likely to just drain out of the bay?

[Mike33534]

These wobbles are going to be rough today.. dude looks going north in last frame heh

[jlauderdal]

Three tornado warnings went up in the last 15 minutes.

Impressive hook echo north of alligator alley, looks like a midwest signature

[Pipelines182]

So do we have a better idea yet where this is going? Girlfriend's parents live in St Pete Beach. They booked a flight on monday to evacuate tuesday, but all flights got cancelled. They are headed up by Seminole and a few miles inland to stay with a family member. They didn't have a car because it was totaled during Helene. I'm getting very worried for them.

Still looks just south of Tampa. The crazy thing is, Helene might have done more damage to St Pete than Milton does if trends hold. Landfall south of Tampa would cause almost no surge at all in St Pete.