ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pasmorade]

If Milton was once well southwest of the track and has rebounded into the northern edge, wouldn't that mean that it would shoot further north than forecast?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Tornado warning for where we live (West Boca), with radar and video-confirmed tornado on mile marker 30 on Alligator Alley. On one of the tornado tracker apps, I can see four active spots west of us, towards the Everglades. What is my next-door neighbor doing? Mowing his yard.

There's always that one guy

[bythetrack]

Follow the clouds.

[lovingseason2013]

Just an hour or so ago, msot comments here were about how Milton was deviating south or east of forecast. And now we have people concerned it's wobbling to the north.

People are going to drive themselves crazy with the wobble watching. Not to diminish anyone’s anxiety or the implications of the track shifting by any means.

I'm not even watching the wobbles right now. I'm watching these supercells south of Lake Okeechobee and that's what giving me anxiety. If these go off as predicted north of the lake where there is far more population this could be massively life threatening. Very worried for the Sebring and Highlands County areas for tornadoes later today.

My friend is evacuating to West Palm and is on a direct path to meet up with the tornado on the ground heading to South Bay, but said sky looks clear so he is driving on Ill update with a report from him if he doesn't get caught in it, see if he sees anything.

[eastcoastFL]

Just finished my shutters in Port St. Lucie. Better safe than sorry! Could see hurricane strength GUSTS here later...

Good luck and stay safe.

[ROCK]

NOAA about to make a pass into the center...

[USTropics]

Just an hour or so ago, msot comments here were about how Milton was deviating south or east of forecast. And now we have people concerned it's wobbling to the north.

People are going to drive themselves crazy with the wobble watching. Not to diminish anyone’s anxiety or the implications of the track shifting by any means.

I'm not even watching the wobbles right now. I'm watching these supercells south of Lake Okeechobee and that's what giving me anxiety. If these go off as predicted north of the lake where there is far more population this could be massively life threatening. Very worried for the Sebring and Highlands County areas for tornadoes later today.

Some images from traffic cams:

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1844019934902575591

[jdjaguar]

Another violent wedge tornado on the ground heading north if this stays on the ground it is heading for the city of Clewiston. I don't know what Florida has in the way of basements this is NOT good...

florida sits on an aquifer. no basements that I know of...maybe in the panhandle

[decgirl66]

I had to take a last minute drive to St Augustine this morning from Titusville. I got on the road about 6:15 and made it within an hour and 20 minutes not a lot of traffic which is a good sign meaning everyone has already left hopefully. My mother's senior living facility was evacuated and I had to come here to stay with her at my brother's house since he is working. The other plans for her and the person that was going to stay here with her did not work out so here I am! He has a very sturdy home far enough away from the coast and not in an EVAC zone so I think we're all good Plus he has an all house of generator. Praying so hard for the West Coast and everyone there.

[aspen]

We should get 2 center passes within the next half an hour. Hopefully they show a more pronounced weakening trend, in line with satellite degradation.

[jasons2k]

Just an hour or so ago, msot comments here were about how Milton was deviating south or east of forecast. And now we have people concerned it's wobbling to the north.

Feel free to search my post history. I’ve been consistent for a long time with the reasons laid out. This isn’t surprising for a lot of folks and the Euro showed the north bend.

[StPeteMike]

According to the NHC and satellite, it’s already close to the location the NHC has him at 2 pm. The 2 pm location is where it begins its more east turn, but he looks to be trekking more north than east. East turn would have to happen in the next 30 minutes or it will start ending up north of the line.

[Bluehawk]

People are going to drive themselves crazy with the wobble watching. Not to diminish anyone’s anxiety or the implications of the track shifting by any means.

I'm not even watching the wobbles right now. I'm watching these supercells south of Lake Okeechobee and that's what giving me anxiety. If these go off as predicted north of the lake where there is far more population this could be massively life threatening. Very worried for the Sebring and Highlands County areas for tornadoes later today.

My friend is evacuating to West Palm and is on a direct path to meet up with the tornado on the ground heading to South Bay, but said sky looks clear so he is driving on Ill update with a report from him if he doesn't get caught in it, see if he sees anything.

We were just wondering who is on the Alligator Alley at this time to take videos of tornadoes, and then we realized people are probably still evacuating at the last moment. Praying they make it to safety.

[underthwx]

Charlotte County: Charlotte County Emergency Management has issued mandatory evacuation orders for residents in Red Zone-A and Orange Zone-B. The evacuation also includes residents in any zone living in mobile and manufactured homes.

Citrus County: Mandatory Evacuation started at 8 a.m. Tuesday for anyone in Citrus County residing in campers, tents, mobile homes, manufactured homes, or any structure not capable of withstanding sustained winds of up to 110MPH.

Collier County: Mandatory

Hernando County: Mandatory Evacuations have been issued for all areas west of US 19, which includes evacuation zones A, B, and C. All residents living in coastal and low-lying areas, as well as manufactured homes county wide, are included.

Hillsborough County: Hillsborough County has issued a mandatory evacuation order for Evacuation Zones A and B, and for all mobile homes and manufactured housing throughout the county.

Lee County: Lee County has issued mandatory evacuation orders for Zones A and B. If you live in these zones, finalize your emergency plans and leave as soon as you can to get to safety. You should be in a safe place by Tuesday, Oct. 8, in the evening.

Levy County: A mandatory evacuation is in effect for Levy county for the following: All mobile homes, manufactured homes, recreational vehicle parks, coastal communities, low lying areas to include everything west of US 19 for all of Levy county

Manatee County: Evacuations of all persons in Level A, B, and C — and all residents or visitors in RVs or Mobile Homes — ahead of Hurricane Milton.

Marion County: Sheriff’s Office Emergency Management officials have issued a mandatory evacuation order for those living in mobile homes, RVs, modular-type homes, and site-built homes constructed before 1994 within Marion County.

Pasco County: A mandatory evacuation was issued for Zone C in Pasco County. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane force winds are expected to impact Pasco County later this week. The evacuation order applies to those who: live in Evacuation Zone A, B or C; live in a manufactured home, mobile home or RV anywhere in Pasco; live in a low-lying area or an area prone to flooding; live in a structure that historically has experienced flooding during heavy rainfall; are in an area ordered evacuated by local authorities due to life-safety hazards

Pinellas County: Pinellas County has issued a mandatory evacuation order for everyone in Zone A, B and C, and all mobile homes. Earlier the County announced evacuations for special needs residents and residential health care facilities in these zones.

Sarasota County: Sarasota County has extended its mandatory evacuation order to Level C. It now applies to anyone in Levels A, B, C, plus manufactured communities or a mobile or boat home.

St. Johns County: Starting Tuesday, all persons living in licensed facilities, assisted living facilities, nursing home facilities, and Ambulatory Surgery Centers in the following portions and elements of St. Johns County have been ordered to evacuate: All of Evacuation Zone A and B, as well as parts of F south of State Road 206. Starting 8 a.m. Wednesday, all persons living in assisted living facilities in the following portions and elements of St. Johns County must evacuate: All of Evacuation Zone A and B, as well as parts of F south of State Road 206; and all living in or on a boat, mobile home, recreational vehicle, camper or other similar conveyance.

Volisia County: A mandatory evacuation order has been enacted started 8 a.m. Wednesday for all areas east of the intracoastal waterway, those residing in manufactured and mobile homes, low-lying and flood-prone areas, and campsites and RV recreational parks.

Some of these were already in effect....hiwever...as of an hour ago...new locations are being added....please be sure to stay up to date on these new evacuation orders the best that you can....or better yet.....just leave until the cyclone passes...

[NDG]

You guys looking at the radar you have to keep in mind that most likely center is already tilted pretty good to the right because of the shear, so in actuality it very likely is to the SW or WSW of where the center appears on radar.

[kevin]

First center pass by AF305, 928.8 mb with 28 kt winds -> 926 mb. As expected the NW quadrant is very weak with 94 kt FL.

[kevin]

AF305 measured 115 kt FL in the SE quadrant. NOAA3 first pass, 932.7 mb with 38 kt winds -> 929 mb.

[kevin]

AF305 center fix: 25.7N, 84.43W
NOAA3 center fix: 25.7N, 84.45W

[mpic]

Some good news... the roads don't look to bad right now so if you haven't evacuated and are wanting to now...there is an opportunity to do so if you act quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/qJ0CezF.png

Does not surprise me much. About 12 hours before Alicia hit, my step daughter called from Hobby airport to say she has run away from home and needed us to come and get her.
There wasn't a soul on the road. The wind and rain was blowing sideways so it wasn't a pleasant drive. It IS still possible to get out but time is definitely running out.