ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like an eyewall meld to me either the ne side of the inner eye merging with the outer eyewall so maybe both a meld and replacement

[cheezyWXguy]

Cloud filled larger eye is becoming apparent on satellite

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Overall structure right is pretty reminiscent of Irma on approach, which was also being heavily sheered.

[Soluna16]

Fresh new calculations on the Headings bases off of the latest extra pressure found by the AF recon.

9 hr average heading: 33 degrees
6 hr average heading: 32 degrees
3 hr average heading: 24 degrees

So the last 3 hours we can confirm a NNW heading as shown on radar.

24 degrees is NNE not NNW

[Poonwalker]

Still waiting for recon to confirm, but IR seems to indicate that Milton's has shifted 0.2 - 0.3 degrees NW due to the EWRC. Anyone with a good radar link who can confirm?

13:12z
https://i.imgur.com/VZfOqv2.jpeg

14:02z
https://i.imgur.com/BhMHugo.jpeg

I can confirm that it has been moving on a more NNE heading the last couple of hours based on radar.

The timing of the NE then ENE turn near landfall is going to be critical. Typical of these Tampa bound storms

[sponger]

Fresh new calculations on the Headings bases off of the latest extra pressure found by the AF recon.

9 hr average heading: 33 degrees
6 hr average heading: 32 degrees
3 hr average heading: 24 degrees

So the last 3 hours we can confirm a NNW heading as shown on radar.

Welcome to Space Cowboy!

The bay is in play, unfortunately.

[sponger]

Fresh new calculations on the Headings bases off of the latest extra pressure found by the AF recon.

9 hr average heading: 33 degrees
6 hr average heading: 32 degrees
3 hr average heading: 24 degrees

So the last 3 hours we can confirm a NNW heading as shown on radar.

24 degrees is NNE not NNW

No worries NDG, we knew what you meant! Can you imagine? All heck would break loose here.

[psyclone]

The upshear convection north of the center means the tampa bay and Orlando area are likely to take a brutal pummeling from wind and rain. In the near term that mega band closing in on the west coast is going to be very spicy. Good luck to all my Florida friends on this one...where's my cold front...

[Mike33534]

They actually shifted the track south heh

[Mouton]

On the sat there has been a consistant blob slightly ahead of the storm for the past day or so. It seems to lead the way, actually being steered by the environment ahead of the storm. Currently it is approaching an area south of TBay. It has been bending slightly more east then north for some time. So, my sense is to follow that for an indication of where Milt goes.

Of good note, on sat it appears a good deal of dry air is beginning to work into the SW of the system. Hopefully it drags it down to a 3.

[kevin]

IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

[Poonwalker]

That leading band is coming ashore. Some nasty stuff in there. Wind has really picked up here in Seminole/Largo.

[Hurricaneman]

IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

Looks like both a meld and replacement

[wzrgirl1]

PDS Issued

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1844019144909627585

We had a very large tornado touch down in Weston. It is about 3 miles from me. I am in west pembroke pines about 3 miles from the everglades. We have had 3 radar indicated tornadoes already. Ugh.

[Orlando]

Fresh new calculations on the Headings bases off of the latest extra pressure found by the AF recon.

9 hr average heading: 33 degrees
6 hr average heading: 32 degrees
3 hr average heading: 24 degrees

So the last 3 hours we can confirm a NNW heading as shown on radar.

24 degrees is NNE not NNW

No worries NDG, we knew what you meant! Can you imagine? All heck would break loose here.

NDG has given so much to these boards lately. I'm very sure NDG must be totally exhausted from all the hard work that has been put into the research. Thank you, NDG, for keeping us up to date, especially in the Models thread!

[cheezyWXguy]

IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

Radar makes it clear this was likely not a meld, but a surprisingly quickly executed ewrc. New eye is much larger. The smaller inner eyewall is giving up right now and will gradually get absorbed into the outer ne eyewall

[NDG]

Average heading during the past 4 hours.

[CronkPSU]

is it still over the loop current?

[Abdullah]

Milton position tracking and extrapolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including extrapolations, marked in grey)

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
05:00 PM — 26.6N, 83.5W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
08:00 PM — 27.0N, 83.0W (+0.4N, -0.5W)
11:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.5W (+0.3N, -0.5W) (Landfall at Siesta Key, 6 miles south of Sarasota)
02:00 AM — 27.5N, 82.1W (+0.2N, -0.4W)
02:00 AM — 27.8N, 81.6W (+0.3N, -0.5W)
08:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.1W (+0.2N, -0.5W)

The projection is for Milton to slow down considerably and start angling to the West over the next 24 hours, and at 11 PM tonight it will landfall at the southern portion of Siesta Key, which is 6 miles to the south of Sarasota and 50 miles to the south of Tampa.

[Snowman67]

The eye definitely looks more prominent the last few frames.