ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4501 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:06 am

jasons2k wrote:
NDG wrote:I can certainly say, you in the Naples/Ft Myers area you are in the clear of a direct hit, Milton will have to head almost east now for you to have a repeat of Ian.
But still a high risk for some storm surge.

This surge will be a lot bigger than Ian and places as far away as Naples still face a surge threat.


Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4502 Postby TampaWxLurker » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:08 am

wxman57 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:
NDG wrote:I can certainly say, you in the Naples/Ft Myers area you are in the clear of a direct hit, Milton will have to head almost east now for you to have a repeat of Ian.
But still a high risk for some storm surge.

This surge will be a lot bigger than Ian and places as far away as Naples still face a surge threat.


Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.


Has your predicted landfall point changed?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4503 Postby Powellrm » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:09 am

Seems to be another strong showing for the ICON. What a run the ICON has had.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4504 Postby Abdullah » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:09 am

At 12:02 PM

AF305 mission 20 reported an extrapolated surface pressure of 937 mbar with 8 knots flight-level winds at 26.0N, 84.3W

Peak flight level winds were 120 knots and SFMR was 110 knots in the NE eyewall
Last edited by Abdullah on Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4505 Postby Laser30033003 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:10 am

TampaWxLurker wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:This surge will be a lot bigger than Ian and places as far away as Naples still face a surge threat.


Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.


Has your predicted landfall point changed?


Clearwater Beach
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4506 Postby drewschmaltz » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:10 am

Xyls wrote:Full on tornado outbreak going on in Florida and these tornadoes are just about to enter the actual best environment for them which is north of the lake. Lake Placid and Sylvan Shores in particular you are in big danger that cell that has been producing wedges is coming right at ya, and Serbing will be not long after. People need to find shelter somehow and not be in homes/mobile homes without basements.


I know this has already been addressed, but this is a very difficult situation. Mobile homes are one thing (there are evacuations in the middle of the state for that), but I'm unsure of what it looks like when millions of people in the middle of the state start seeking shelter. I'll just say what I'm doing... I have a closet with 2 exterior walls and 2 interior walls, good space, and no windows. I've set up bean bag chairs for the family, our IDs, and flashlights. Edit: Hurricane tornado warnings will go off (they always do in these situations). One of the differences is it will be loud outside already, so it won't be real obvious until it's real on top of us - so the plan is to go there, or near there, when any warnings sound.

I appreciate more than ever the efforts of members advocating for everyone in the cone to prepare as if it's going to hit them. I sure hope that's the case. Stay safe.
Last edited by drewschmaltz on Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4507 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:10 am

TampaWxLurker wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:This surge will be a lot bigger than Ian and places as far away as Naples still face a surge threat.


Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.


Has your predicted landfall point changed?


We have it close to Sarasota for landfall, but I'd like to see a heading more ENE to get there. I remember working Charley in 2004. It kept bending right of the track a few hours out. Certainly wouldn't rule out a Tampa Bay hit.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4508 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:10 am

Looking at the SFWMD Florida Radar that has NHC track on it
Milton seems dead on track ATM
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4509 Postby jjfl78 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:14 am

Hey all,

Long time lurker of these forums, and an avid Hurricane enthusiast. First hurricane I lived through was Hugo back in PR, and from that day never stopped tracking/researching these storms.

Currently situated in Palm Harbor FL, and hunkered down in my home outside of Evac Zones. Prepared for the worse and hoping for the best. Having said that, I did want to share with the community some of the dangers we will be facing here in North Pinellas. Both US-19 and Alt-19 are literally littered with projectiles. Alt-19 still has miles upon miles of debris on side of the road or in front of homes, while US-19 still has all of the traffic/hazard drums used for work sites going on for miles of the roadway. Our own community still has a ton of tree limbs/branches littered throughout.

Will try and share future updates as the storm draws closer.

To all CFL/West coast FL board members, I hope you are either out of harms way or hunkered down in a safe place. Remember, your life is always worth more than anything you can buy..

Stay safe all!
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4510 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:17 am

saved loop
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4511 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:18 am

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4512 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:18 am

wxman57 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:
NDG wrote:I can certainly say, you in the Naples/Ft Myers area you are in the clear of a direct hit, Milton will have to head almost east now for you to have a repeat of Ian.
But still a high risk for some storm surge.

This surge will be a lot bigger than Ian and places as far away as Naples still face a surge threat.


Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.


So glad to see the pronounced weakening this morning. Going with 105 to 115mph at landfall, and it has plenty of time to get down to that speed.. Just as mentioned over the last few days, shear was going to do a number on it. It's just not large enough to withstand the strong shear. Still obviously will be a very dangerous storm, but oh man, it could have been so much worse had this shear not been here.
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4513 Postby Travorum » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:18 am

Tail doppler radar captured the ERC pretty well. Most hurricane force wind, even at flight level, is to the east of the eye now.

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4514 Postby Mike33534 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:20 am

AtlanticWind wrote:Looking at the SFWMD Florida Radar that has NHC track on it
Milton seems dead on track ATM

Slightly north of it,
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4515 Postby FLLurker32 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:23 am

Cool winds in central FL. Reminds me of Irma when it clashed with the much cooler air.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4516 Postby Abdullah » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:24 am

The SW quadrant was reported to have 85 knot flight-level winds, corresponding to 80 knot surface winds. Weakening fast for sure
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4517 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:24 am

Mesoscale Discussion 2138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2138.html

Areas affected...Parts of central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 690...

Valid 091550Z - 091745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 690 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat north of Lake Okeechobee is increasing
as a cluster of discrete supercells move generally northward. A
strong tornado or two will be possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of discrete supercells continue to move
north/north-northwest near Lake Okeechobee. Surface temperatures
have risen into the low 80s F, with the most heating occurring in
east-central Florida. The area where temperatures in the 80s and
dewpoints in the upper 70s F will be where the tornado threat will
be maximized this afternoon. The storm just west of Lake Okeechobee
(Glades County) is currently producing a tornado per TDS evident on
KMLB radar dual-pol data. Given the easterly flow and the expected
strengthening of the low-level wind field with time (KMLB VAD data
has shown slow improvement in low-level shear), the tornado threat
north of Lake Okeechobee will continue to increase this afternoon.
The environment will support a strong tornado or two with these
storms.

..Wendt.. 10/09/2024
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4518 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:26 am

Here's a 200 frame (every 30 sec) mesoscale loop from the College of DuPage. Dry air is infiltrating the west and SW side now. Structure is deteriorating. Was really hoping that recon would have a report in the NE eyewall but it skipped right past the storm. Likely a Cat 3 now and weakening. May reach Cat 2 before landfall. Dry air intrusion and increasing wind shear are your friends, Floridians. Like with Francine and Helene, it may not carry sustained hurricane force wind inland very far, but gusts may top 100 mph well inland. Heaviest squalls will be on the north side due to dry air to the south.


https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4519 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:26 am

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#4520 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Oct 09, 2024 11:27 am

Abdullah wrote:The SW quadrant was reported to have 85 knot flight-level winds, corresponding to 80 knot surface winds. Weakening fast for sure


wow really? That is quite a bit weaker than I expected this soon. Won't be surprised if the NHC drops the windspeed lower at landfall by quite a bit on the next advisory or two.
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