ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

That wind to the north makes me think it is already starting to go into extratropical transition, and it may be ET before it re-emerges in the Atlantic. I wonder if the baroclinic forcing will offset the shear and keep it at its current strength up to landfall?

Do you think the land friction will tighten the circulation?

https://i.imgur.com/kew746W.gif

Absolutely could, might even strengthen a tad but what it is now is mostly what will be seen at landfall

[TomballEd]

Unofficial eyeball read of Tampa radar, it hits just S of Tampa Bay. Surge won't be as bad, but very strong winds will hit the entire metro.

[johngaltfla]

so if this eye travels directly over the bay, is that better for Tampa and the bay, than if it went just north? or is it the same?

Not good for the eastern side of the bay (Gibsonton, Apollo Beach, Ruskin, etc.) better for Pinellas with an offshore wind.

[Frank P]

High I saw on Radar Omega was 142 mph in the NW eyewall a minute ago, some of this could be mixing down to the surface I would assume.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Damaging tornado in the newer developments built to the W of West Palm Beach. Videos on X

Link?

[TR772]

St Lucie.

https://www.facebook.com/10006448274269 ... lFaIYfmpMP

[StormPyrate]

not much surge in tampa bay yet
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ports ... e=allwater

[TomballEd]

If it wanted to stall out there for a few hours and sit and spin, I wouldn't mind. Let it lose its tidal wake, let it continue to weaken for a few more hours and then move inland as a weaker storm would be great.
We'll see if the slowdown is temporary or a long-term change, though.

Would not be so good for the East Coast.

 https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/1844122964251603357

[TampaWxLurker]

so if this eye travels directly over the bay, is that better for Tampa and the bay, than if it went just north? or is it the same?

At the direction it's moving in, if it split the bay at Egmont Key and headed northeast...it would probably push water up Hillsboro Bay into downtown and the east side in Gibsonton Riverview & Apollo Beach at the max worst case scenario. Alternatively it would probably suck all the water out of Old Tampa Bay on the west side of the Interbay Peninsula.

So, still bad, but the entire bay wouldn't flood if it strikes just north of the entrance to the Bay in Pinellas County.

[Abdullah]

Milton position tracking and extrapolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including extrapolations, marked in grey)

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
02:00 PM — 26.3N, 84.0W (+0.5N, -0.3W) ACTUAL
05:00 PM — 26.6N, 83.5W (+0.4N, -0.4W)
05:00 PM — 26.9N, 83.4W (+0.6N, -0.6W) ACTUAL
08:00 PM — 27.0N, 83.0W (+0.4N, -0.5W)
11:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.5W (+0.3N, -0.5W) (Landfall at Siesta Key, 6 miles south of Sarasota)
02:00 AM — 27.5N, 82.1W (+0.2N, -0.4W)
02:00 AM — 27.8N, 81.6W (+0.3N, -0.5W)
08:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.1W (+0.2N, -0.5W)

The projection is for Milton to slow down considerably and start angling to the West over the next 24 hours, and at 11 PM tonight it will landfall at the southern portion of Siesta Key, which is 6 miles to the south of Sarasota and 50 miles to the south of Tampa.

Had to look back at this post that was made at the time of the last advisory.
I mark in red the actual results.

Milton ended up 0.3 degrees North and 0.1 degrees East of where it was meant to be at the 5:00 PM advisory!

Although this is only 24 miles NNE of where it was projected, clearly the implications are large for interests in the Tampa Bay region.

I'll conduct this analysis again with the 5 PM advisory and discussion forecast.

[tolakram]

Really slowing down, I think.

latest saved loop

[Steve]

Vero getting an F2 or F3 in Lakewood Park neighborhood per RHY video live

Double tornado with anti cyclonic one in that Vero tornado. That’s nuts.

[caneman]

Were getting the business near IRB

[TomballEd]

Damaging tornado in the newer developments built to the W of West Palm Beach. Videos on X

Link?

One of several, tornado with huge correlation coefficients/debris balls near I-95 approaching Pt. St. Lucie and Vero Beach area.

 https://x.com/IMCFTraveller/status/1844120415658180829

[TR772]

https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1844123085592801338

wow

[tolakram]

[ElectricStorm]

Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado

[chaser1]

At this point, with the surge and tornado damage, how much will it really matter? The damage will be more than we can imagine. I can only think that if it was my house that got swept away or destroyed by surge, it wouldn't be any better that the winds didn't come and blow the pieces around that the surge left behind. Either way I'd lose everything.

Well it does matter to me and about 2.5 million neighbors of mine that have zero risk of our houses lost to storm surge, and miraculously have not been hit by the many tornadoes. Reason being that each person has their own particular possessions, cars, homes, and family and I won't fault them for feeling a sense of relief if the risk of severe wind damage becomes less foreboding or a threat.

I can understand that point. I was more talking about in surge areas. Be safe.

My appologies, I misunderstood. Your point is a valid one. For those being impacted by storm surge, the winds themselve are nearly inconsequential. I suppose the worst part is that you can't duck, hide, or get in the car and go. Once it moves in, there's nothing to do but sink or swim

[Steve]

Massive debris ball/CC drop heading towards Vero Beach. Don't think I've ever seen one that big from a TC spawned tornado

Historic outbreak with these beast tornados. Another coming up to Stuart.

[TR772]

The tornado near Ft Pierce is crazy.