2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

This is the strangest season in recent memory lmao, On fire, in the mud, then on fire again (Thank you Northern ITCZ I guessss) this is definitely has to be a top 5 ACE producing 24 hours in October ...Im sure someone has the stats for specific ACE days!

Also, the monsoon trough breaking the waves and moving them more north than normal.

[AnnularCane]

We may not have 25 storms (I think? Not sure I should discount anything anymore ), but it's probably safe to say this season is not the dud some thought it was previously.

[Teban54]

One last look at our 3 simultaneous (operational) hurricanes in October, the first time on record.

Kirk's extratropical transition is already complete, and it's listed as post-tropical on the 12z best track before this image, but operationally it will remain a hurricane until the 11am EDT advisory. Leslie is weakening with pulsing convection, and will probably no longer be a hurricane later today.

But instead... We have an ERI 130 kt Cat 4 on its way to reaching its MPI and rivaling the most historic Atlantic storms ever recorded.

[Category5Kaiju]

The Gulf in recent years, at least in reference to the CONUS, has really reminded me of Tornado Alley in the way. Basically, it's a guarantee that there will be a powerful tornado somewhere in the region, but what exact area and town is destroyed is up to the weather gods. Since 2017 (with the notable exception of 2019), it's been basically a given that a certain year would feature a devastating major hurricane making landfall. Where exactly though, nobody knew until it happened.

[Teban54]

Another thing about the 2024 season is that all 4 major hurricanes reached Cat 4, with the "weakest", Helene, being 120 kt. If you're willing to assume both Helene and Kirk will get post-season intensity bumps, the minimum would be 125 kt, and there's a legitimate chance for three Cat 5s. Granted, an official upgrade for Kirk is still highly questionable, but still.

The only season with at least three Cat 5s (according to official records) was 2005, in which four Cat 5s formed. Hopefully 2024 has no intentions of challenging that.

The following seasons had at least as many official Cat 4+s as 2024 currently has:

• Five Cat 4+s: 1933, 1961, 1999, 2005, 2020
• Four Cat 4+s: 1926, 1932, 1964, 2004, 2008, 2010, 2017

[KWT]

Milton will comfortably get us to above average on its own even if the cat-5 status is fleeting. Still quite some way away from hyperactive status, I suspect we are going to need another couple of storms (probably canes tbh) this season for that to be a realistic prospect but the fact its even possible after such a long slow spell is crazy.

[WiscoWx02]

I remember you said very similar things in 2022 two weeks before Ian happened. Just saying.

I did and ate crow for it I'll admit. Not worried about that this year though. Eric Webb said it all...the writing is on the wall for this season to just not perform.

It's ironic and almost amusing that not only did the original comment age like milk, but it did so in almost the exact same fashion as the same comment from the same user did in 2022.

I will never, EVER, write off a season like I did this year and in 2022 ever again. Not only was it an uneducated assumption, but it was highly insensitive to those who have and are about to have their life rocked, potentially forever. I scoffed at Joe Bastardi’s prediction of hurricane hell 3 weeks ago, and it obviously turned out to be true. 2024 is a lesson that no matter how hostile the pattern looks, if something wants to get through a crack it will, and in doing so it widens that crack for more to follow it through.

With that said, I feel that my presence on this forum has only invoked negative interactions with myself and others, and while it’s okay for everyone to have different opinions, mine have been borderline disrespectful and hinging near conspiracy at times. Because of this I have decided I will be leaving and no longer posting here or anywhere else on Storm 2k. I’ll be watching, but not posting, I think I’ve lost my right to say anything here amongst some amazing enthusiasts and professional meteorologists. I wish everyone here well, thank you for talking some sense into me. Again…no matter how unfavorable a season may look, I think we all know how that can change on a dime regardless of the time of the season, with 2024 cementing that fact!

-WiscoWx02

[ElectricStorm]

I did and ate crow for it I'll admit. Not worried about that this year though. Eric Webb said it all...the writing is on the wall for this season to just not perform.

It's ironic and almost amusing that not only did the original comment age like milk, but it did so in almost the exact same fashion as the same comment from the same user did in 2022.

I will never, EVER, write off a season like I did this year and in 2022 ever again. Not only was it an uneducated assumption, but it was highly insensitive to those who have and are about to have their life rocked, potentially forever. I scoffed at Joe Bastardi’s prediction of hurricane hell 3 weeks ago, and it obviously turned out to be true. 2024 is a lesson that no matter how hostile the pattern looks, if something wants to get through a crack it will, and in doing so it widens that crack for more to follow it through.

With that said, I feel that my presence on this forum has only invoked negative interactions with myself and others, and while it’s okay for everyone to have different opinions, mine have been borderline disrespectful and hinging near conspiracy at times. Because of this I have decided I will be leaving and no longer posting here or anywhere else on Storm 2k. I’ll be watching, but not posting, I think I’ve lost my right to say anything here amongst some amazing enthusiasts and professional meteorologists. I wish everyone here well, thank you for talking some sense into me. Again…no matter how unfavorable a season may look, I think we all know how that can change on a dime regardless of the time of the season, with 2024 cementing that fact!

-WiscoWx02

You don't have to stop posting we all have opinions that turn out to be completely wrong later on, heck I've certainly had my fair share of those. Even yesterday I said I didn't believe the HAFS for Milton and here we are That's kind of the point of this board is to post thoughts/opinions

Anyways I'm not gonna try to change your mind lol but I don't think you've "lost your right" to be here or anything

[KWT]

I did and ate crow for it I'll admit. Not worried about that this year though. Eric Webb said it all...the writing is on the wall for this season to just not perform.

It's ironic and almost amusing that not only did the original comment age like milk, but it did so in almost the exact same fashion as the same comment from the same user did in 2022.

I will never, EVER, write off a season like I did this year and in 2022 ever again. Not only was it an uneducated assumption, but it was highly insensitive to those who have and are about to have their life rocked, potentially forever. I scoffed at Joe Bastardi’s prediction of hurricane hell 3 weeks ago, and it obviously turned out to be true. 2024 is a lesson that no matter how hostile the pattern looks, if something wants to get through a crack it will, and in doing so it widens that crack for more to follow it through.

With that said, I feel that my presence on this forum has only invoked negative interactions with myself and others, and while it’s okay for everyone to have different opinions, mine have been borderline disrespectful and hinging near conspiracy at times. Because of this I have decided I will be leaving and no longer posting here or anywhere else on Storm 2k. I’ll be watching, but not posting, I think I’ve lost my right to say anything here amongst some amazing enthusiasts and professional meteorologists. I wish everyone here well, thank you for talking some sense into me. Again…no matter how unfavorable a season may look, I think we all know how that can change on a dime regardless of the time of the season, with 2024 cementing that fact!

-WiscoWx02

I think the big lessons is to look at *why* a season is unfavourable.

This year had some very high waves which then struggled for moisture in a broadly more stable than normal pattern.

No wonder that when the waves exited a little further south and we finally get troposphere cooling to go along with record warm water at the time that it would go pop as instability increases. Especially in La Nina which often pop late anyways.

Anyone who legitimately though it'd remain dead imo was far too focused on how a normal season would likely evolve from a quiet period vs what actually were the deck of cards we had, which were la nina and absurdly warm waters will beyond most peaks.

We've basically just shifted the Aug/Sept peak back about 3-4 weeks is all.

I said on the 20th September that between then and the end of October we'd get 8/4/3. In some respects this period looks l8ke even outdoing that!

[SconnieCane]

Ok, everybody got your 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season bingo cards ready? The ones you made back in early June, based on the pre/early-seasonal indicators and models? Good.

Multiple high-impact landfalls/likely name retirements? Check.

Three or more cyclones active at hurricane intensity at the same time? Check.

Multiple Cat. 5s? Check.

An explosive RI episode on par with the most impressive on record in the basin/perhaps globally? Check.

No named storm formations between August 12 and September 9? Wait, WHAT?!

[CrazyC83]

This year has felt like a hyperactive version of a North Indian cyclone season.

[WaveBreaking]

The juxtaposition between a now-post-tropical Kirk, a solid category 1 Leslie, and the 900-millibar nuke that is Milton is very surreal to watch. I almost completely forgot about the other two storms

[weeniepatrol]

About to surpass West Pacific ACE, within 6 hours

[Travorum]

About to surpass West Pacific ACE, within 6 hours

https://i.imgur.com/iQzKG8j.png

And there we have it

[tiger_deF]

One of these years, we’re going to have a real below average season. Not “the basin wasn’t swarming with cyclones” average, but where the title cane is a struggling category one in the open Atlantic. Pretty much every season since 2015 has been average to hyperactive, so it will definitely feel unusual.

And you know that even if the whole season is dead through peak, 2024 comparisons will be made the entire time

[Teban54]

One of these years, we’re going to have a real below average season. Not “the basin wasn’t swarming with cyclones” average, but where the title cane is a struggling category one in the open Atlantic. Pretty much every season since 2015 has been average to hyperactive, so it will definitely be unusual.

And you know that even if the whole season is dead through peak, 2024 comparisons will be made the entire time

I can see the 2024 reference in future seasons going both ways:

"Season has been quiet in August? 2024 was similarly quiet even during September, but still bombed out in the end. Don't cancel the season just yet."

"Season has been active in August? 2024 was even more active in June and still had a dead peak season, and you can never count on late season to produce. Cancel the season!"

[Category5Kaiju]

One of these years, we’re going to have a real below average season. Not “the basin wasn’t swarming with cyclones” average, but where the title cane is a struggling category one in the open Atlantic. Pretty much every season since 2015 has been average to hyperactive, so it will definitely feel unusual.

And you know that even if the whole season is dead through peak, 2024 comparisons will be made the entire time

"Unusual" would be quite the understatement.

You know it's been an exhausting, horrific stretch of Atlantic seasons when you go on Youtube and find out that every single year since 2016, there has been at least one Atlantic storm that was extensively covered on the news (yes, this includes Idalia in 2023 even though it was ultimately not retired).

To see a below-average season, especially one that is like 2006, 2009, or 2014 (where there are no significant, memorable systems and where activity is less than 14 NSs), after this string of misery would be quite the gift but also feel completely out of the ordinary. Sometimes, given how warm the Atlantic Ocean has been, I even wonder if we will ever see a "truly below-average" season. 2023 showed that we can still see powerful, life-changing storms even during a robust El Nino. So....who knows?

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1843847708026794313

The 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season has now generated 127 ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), officially meeting NOAA's definition of an above-normal season

[weeniepatrol]

Looks like the predictions of a late September peak/switch flip and a very late MDR season are verifying. We might actually hit 15 NS and 100+ ACE at this rate; after the late August to early September slowdown, it was looking possible this season wouldn’t break 10 NS and 100 ACE.

https://i.imgur.com/HpwdFeB.png

All metrics above-average or soon to be. ACE will be above-average again tomorrow.

One heck of a comeback after the late August-early September shutdown. Looks like we’ll probably end up with 14-17 NS, 9-11 H, 4-5 MH, and 110-135 ACE, depending on how the season post-Milton goes.

Life comes at you fast. Try 135 ACE 6 hours ago



INCREDIBLE comeback. We are gunning for the October ACE record and I think we'll get it. It's only the 9th. about 55 units have been generated in the last 9 days. October ACE record is ~70 IIRC.

Edit: Deelan Jariwala corrected me; it's ~87 units apparently (goddamn!)

[kevin]

No clue where to put this so I'll put it here. Thought this was a fun little list, the most intense Atlantic hurricane for each letter of the alphabet (so only hurricanes since we've started using official names instead of numbers so no storms like "Labor Day"). The picks are chosen by pressure, but if there is another storm with a higher pressure, but also stronger winds it's added in italics behind it.

A = Allen (1980, 899 mb, 190 mph)
B = Beulah (1967, 921 mb, 160 mph) / Beryl (2024, 934 mb, 165 mph)
C = Camille (1969, 900 mb, 175 mph)
D = Dean (2007, 905 mb, 175 mph) / Dorian (2019, 910 mb, 185 mph)
E = Esther (1961, 919 mb, 160 mph)
F = Felix (2007, 929 mb, 175 mph)
G = Gilbert (1988, 888 mb, 185 mph)
H = Hattie (1961, 914 mb, 165 mph)
I = Ivan (2004, 910 mb, 165 mph) / Irma (2017, 914 mb, 180 mph)
J = Janet (1955, 914 mb, 175 mph)
K = Katrina (2005, 902 mb, 175 mph)
L = Lorenzo (2019, 925 mb, 160 mph) / Lee (2023, 926 mb, 165 mph)
M = Milton (2024, 897 mb, 180 mph)
N = Nicole (2016, 950 mb, 140 mph)
O = Opal (1995, 916 mb, 150 mph)
P = Paloma (2008, 944 mb, 145 mph)
R = Rita (2005, 895 mb, 180 mph)
S = Sam (2021, 927 mb, 155 mph)
T = Teddy (2020, 945 mb, 140 mph)
V = Vince (2005, 988 mb, 75 mph)
W = Wilma (2005, 882 mb, 185 mph)

There's a newcomer in this list.