ATL: MILTON - Models

[Poonwalker]

Hafs for the win!

[Teban54]

Seeing the sub-900 hurricane models runs verify for Milton makes me think perhaps they were onto something for Helene initially.

There were several runs where HAFS runs for Helene had 890s and 900s, to the point where Andy Hazelton (part of the team that developed HAFS) said such intensities never came up in their model hindcasts. As bad as Helene eventually turned out to be, perhaps it could have been worse had it not ingested dry air near the Yucatan?

(On the other hand, HWRF and HMON didn't start showing sub-900 even for Milton until a bit after HAFS started doing so, IIRC.)

[Woofde]

The question for the model followers is which model(s) did the best with the landfall that had pressure of 954 mbs and also the track?

The HAFS models crushed it for this storm IMO. They consistently showed the explosive intensification. They also nailed the landfall evolution of the windfield and drying of the Southern half of the circulation.

[LARanger]

ICON had been impressive as heck all year, and still is, but it had a little hiccup here with the bay projection failing to verify, with the south-of-the-bay stuff working out. That said, it was right on the actual landfall point days ago and was fairly consistent with it as I recall, so there's that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hafs for the win!

Very impressive, it showed the weakening and the rapid intensification episodes quite well.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

ICON continues to show TS winds across Bermuda tomorrow:



HMON too:



Other models just a hair south but enough to keep the winds offshore. Should be a wavy weekend though.