#5400 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 10, 2024 3:59 pm
As far as the best track of Milton, here's my analysis looking through all the data available.
AL142024, MILTON, 26,
20241005, 0000, , LO, 21.1N, 95.2W, 30, 1008,
20241005, 0600, , LO, 21.6N, 95.4W, 35, 1006,
20241005, 1200, , TS, 22.1N, 95.5W, 35, 1005,
20241005, 1800, , TS, 22.5N, 95.6W, 40, 1004,
20241006, 0000, , TS, 22.7N, 95.4W, 40, 1002,
20241006, 0600, , TS, 22.6N, 95.2W, 45, 996,
20241006, 1200, , TS, 22.5N, 94.8W, 55, 990,
20241006, 1800, , HU, 22.5N, 94.1W, 70, 986,
20241007, 0000, , HU, 22.4N, 93.4W, 80, 980,
20241007, 0600, , HU, 22.2N, 92.9W, 95, 970,
20241007, 1200, , HU, 21.8N, 92.2W, 120, 945,
20241007, 1800, , HU, 21.7N, 91.3W, 150, 910,
20241007, 2200, P, HU, 21.8N, 90.7W, 155, 897,
20241008, 0000, , HU, 21.8N, 90.4W, 150, 902,
20241008, 0600, , HU, 22.0N, 89.5W, 130, 927,
20241008, 1200, , HU, 22.4N, 88.8W, 130, 929,
20241008, 1800, , HU, 22.6N, 88.1W, 140, 918,
20241009, 0000, , HU, 23.0N, 86.9W, 145, 902,
20241009, 0600, , HU, 23.8N, 85.9W, 140, 908,
20241009, 1200, , HU, 25.0N, 84.8W, 125, 922,
20241009, 1800, , HU, 26.3N, 83.9W, 105, 946,
20241010, 0000, , HU, 27.2N, 82.7W, 100, 954,
20241010, 0045, L, HU, 27.3N, 82.5W, 95, 956,
20241010, 0600, , HU, 28.2N, 81.3W, 70, 976,
20241010, 1200, , EX, 28.9N, 79.5W, 65, 980,
20241010, 1800, , EX, 29.5N, 77.5W, 60, 981,
* Genesis is unchanged. However, it likely was already a tropical storm at the time based on ASCAT passes of 31 kt and 35 kt, adjusted for the low resolution of the instrument. Pre-Recon intensities are increased accordingly.
* The rapid intensification is basically unchanged with slight smoothing especially on the pressure (as it was intensifying so fast, between-pass interpolation was necessary).
* The peak intensity of 155 kt was maintained, as while the SFMR went nuts, it only deserved slight weighting - the highest FL winds (about 161 kt) support 145 kt, but it was difficult to capture in such a tiny core. Additionally, the Dvorak reading of T7.5 supports 155 kt as well. The minimum pressure of 897 mb, also unchanged from the operational NHC analysis, was at 2200Z, a non-synoptic time, as it is likely the storm strengthened up to that reading (there was a 4 nm closed eyewall) and began to fill right after it (the eyewall cycle was underway as the next pass found a concentric eyewall).
* After the eyewall cycle, the pressure seemed to oscillate in the second peak, reaching a low of 902 mb at about 2300Z, concurrent with the AF plane being several millibars higher. I went with the P-3's pressure of 902 mb as the minimum at this time. A blend of aircraft readings support an intensity of 145kt at this time (lower than the SFMR which is unreliable in a cat 5, the Dvorak estimates or the P-W relationship).
* Rapid weakening occurred soon after, especially on the 9th. The pressure rose significantly and the winds decreased as a result due to increased shear, dry air and the early stages of extratropical transition. Recon still supported 100 kt around 0000Z on October 10, however, the pressure rose a bit after the last Recon and the radar velocities dropped slightly. Hence, I estimate the landfall intensity was 95 kt, accounting for such. The pressure of 956 mb is based on the Sarasota reading of 960 mb at the airport (being offset from the true center) and storm chasers' measurements (I saw 958, 957 and 960 from some).
* Extratropical transition is moved up to 1200Z, based on the structural changes that occurred, although an argument could be made that it occurred a little earlier.
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