ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Flwxguy86]

My experience from Clearwater, just off Main street and about 3 miles from the beach was this was the strongest hurricane I've been in since Fran in 1996, The winds stayed at around 75-80mph for HOURS! I don't have a way of knowing that for sure but after going through quite a few I'd put the winds at that range and there were definitely a lot of gusts to over 100mph. Obviously I didn't have a way to record that but the damage I saw matches those types of winds. Tree's down on powerlines, Smaller structures blocks away like people's wooden sheds etc. Definitely an experience. The amount of time the wind stayed consistently high surprised me even though I'd already seen on social media to watch out for the sting jet would likely be sitting over most of southern pinellas county, was surprised those winds made it to where they did in Clearwater, not sure if it ever got as windy here in my place in Oldsmar, Power only went out for a few hours in Oldsmar but is still out in a lot of clearwater. Surprisingly 3 miles east of my location an apartment complex completely flooded out from the rain ruining probably 15-20 cars. I got out of there first thing in the morning though so the damage could have been worse in the area than the area I saw.

[Craters]

As always, NHC did a great track forecast from the first advisory.

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1844279074564256232

Its almost magic what the NHC does.....I hope everyone affected are safe....and here's to blue skies!....

Yep. It seems that after almost every storm, Cycloneye or someone else rightfully points out how good the NHC's track was. Not always, but enough to bet on comfortably. Still, before landfall,there are the dozens of people on the board with the "What are they looking at??!," or "They should have adjusted it in the 11:00 update," or smilar comments. I guess questioning and what-if'ing the official track is part of the attraction and spirit of S2K, but, when push comes to shove, it sure is hard not to respect the OFCL track.

Of course, then there's the ICON...

[Teban54]

A few other meteorological records of Milton that I haven't seen people mentioning yet:

• Milton and Michael are the only Category 5 hurricanes in October and November outside of the Caribbean. As I mentioned during Kirk, there were only 6 other official October-November Cat 5s on record: Cuba 1924, Cuba 1932, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew. All of them attained Cat 5 intensity in the Caribbean, and all but Matthew did it in Western Caribbean.
  
  • Cuba 1924 did make landfall in Cuba as a Cat 5 and emerge into the Gulf thereafter, but it probably didn't exist within the Gulf at Cat 5 intensity.
  • If you believe Kirk was a Cat 5 or that it may be upgraded post-season, it and Milton and Michael would be the only three Oct-Nov Cat 5s outside of the Caribbean.
• How do you define Bay of Campeche? Milton's 897 mb peak was just to the north of it. It's the strongest hurricane that ever got close to BoC: no other Cat 5s had tracked within 2 degrees north of Merida at that intensity. The only Cat 4 to have done so was Inez (115 kt). The strongest hurricane that's unambiguously within BoC was Karl 2010 (Cat 3, 110 kt).

[zal0phus]

A few other meteorological records of Milton that I haven't seen people mentioning yet:

• Milton is the only Category 5 hurricane in October and November outside of the Caribbean. As I mentioned during Kirk, there were only 6 other official October-November Cat 5s on record: Cuba 1924, Cuba 1932, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew. All of them attained Cat 5 intensity in the Caribbean, and all but Matthew did it in Western Caribbean.
  
  • Cuba 1924 did make landfall in Cuba as a Cat 5 and emerge into the Gulf thereafter, but it probably didn't exist within the Gulf at Cat 5 intensity.
  • If you believe Kirk was a Cat 5 or that it may be upgraded post-season, it and Milton would be the only two Oct-Nov Cat 5s outside of the Caribbean.
• How do you define Bay of Campeche? Milton's 897 mb peak was just to the north of it. It's the strongest hurricane that ever got close to BoC: no other Cat 5s had tracked within 2 degrees north of Merida at that intensity. The only Cat 4 to have done so was Inez (115 kt). The strongest hurricane that's unambiguously within BoC was Karl 2010 (Cat 3, 110 kt).

Michael was a Cat 5 in October in the northern Gulf. Even so, Milton belongs to a narrow group.

[Teban54]

A few other meteorological records of Milton that I haven't seen people mentioning yet:

• Milton is the only Category 5 hurricane in October and November outside of the Caribbean. As I mentioned during Kirk, there were only 6 other official October-November Cat 5s on record: Cuba 1924, Cuba 1932, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew. All of them attained Cat 5 intensity in the Caribbean, and all but Matthew did it in Western Caribbean.
  
  • Cuba 1924 did make landfall in Cuba as a Cat 5 and emerge into the Gulf thereafter, but it probably didn't exist within the Gulf at Cat 5 intensity.
  • If you believe Kirk was a Cat 5 or that it may be upgraded post-season, it and Milton would be the only two Oct-Nov Cat 5s outside of the Caribbean.
• How do you define Bay of Campeche? Milton's 897 mb peak was just to the north of it. It's the strongest hurricane that ever got close to BoC: no other Cat 5s had tracked within 2 degrees north of Merida at that intensity. The only Cat 4 to have done so was Inez (115 kt). The strongest hurricane that's unambiguously within BoC was Karl 2010 (Cat 3, 110 kt).

Michael was a Cat 5 in October in the northern Gulf. Even so, Milton belongs to a narrow group.

Thanks, I realized that right when you posted it. I was filtering by HURDAT data, and accidentally skipped Michael either because its peak happened at a non-synoptic time, or because it only had one entry (easily missed). It's also quite eerie that Milton is the name that replaced Michael.

[zal0phus]

A few other meteorological records of Milton that I haven't seen people mentioning yet:

• Milton is the only Category 5 hurricane in October and November outside of the Caribbean. As I mentioned during Kirk, there were only 6 other official October-November Cat 5s on record: Cuba 1924, Cuba 1932, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew. All of them attained Cat 5 intensity in the Caribbean, and all but Matthew did it in Western Caribbean.
  
  • Cuba 1924 did make landfall in Cuba as a Cat 5 and emerge into the Gulf thereafter, but it probably didn't exist within the Gulf at Cat 5 intensity.
  • If you believe Kirk was a Cat 5 or that it may be upgraded post-season, it and Milton would be the only two Oct-Nov Cat 5s outside of the Caribbean.
• How do you define Bay of Campeche? Milton's 897 mb peak was just to the north of it. It's the strongest hurricane that ever got close to BoC: no other Cat 5s had tracked within 2 degrees north of Merida at that intensity. The only Cat 4 to have done so was Inez (115 kt). The strongest hurricane that's unambiguously within BoC was Karl 2010 (Cat 3, 110 kt).

Michael was a Cat 5 in October in the northern Gulf. Even so, Milton belongs to a narrow group.

Thanks, I realized that right when you posted it. I was filtering by HURDAT data, and accidentally skipped Michael either because its peak happened at a non-synoptic time, or because it only had one entry (easily missed). It's also quite eerie that Milton is the name that replaced Michael.

Yeah it did happen at a non-synoptic time I believe. I wish the Wikipedia map would make allowances for that

[kassi]

Is it true that most of the power is underground or just in new subdivisions?

I have no idea. I'm in extreme SETX and I feel like it would have been worse here. Heck, nearly 3 million lost power for cat 1 Beryl and that was just in the Houston area. I don't know how long the outages lasted, but for one relative it was well over a week. I can only assume they have underground power in Florida.

Splendora here...moved up from Dickinson a few monthe before Harvey.

Smart move. My family lost everything in Harvey but the clothes we were wearing and the things we grabbed quickly for our backpacks as we were rescued. House. Cars. Everything. I wish that for nobody.

[Ubuntwo]

As far as the best track of Milton, here's my analysis looking through all the data available.

AL142024, MILTON, 26,
20241005, 0000, , LO, 21.1N, 95.2W, 30, 1008,
20241005, 0600, , LO, 21.6N, 95.4W, 35, 1006,
20241005, 1200, , TS, 22.1N, 95.5W, 35, 1005,
20241005, 1800, , TS, 22.5N, 95.6W, 40, 1004,
20241006, 0000, , TS, 22.7N, 95.4W, 40, 1002,
20241006, 0600, , TS, 22.6N, 95.2W, 45, 996,
20241006, 1200, , TS, 22.5N, 94.8W, 55, 990,
20241006, 1800, , HU, 22.5N, 94.1W, 70, 986,
20241007, 0000, , HU, 22.4N, 93.4W, 80, 980,
20241007, 0600, , HU, 22.2N, 92.9W, 95, 970,
20241007, 1200, , HU, 21.8N, 92.2W, 120, 945,
20241007, 1800, , HU, 21.7N, 91.3W, 150, 910,
20241007, 2200, P, HU, 21.8N, 90.7W, 155, 897,
20241008, 0000, , HU, 21.8N, 90.4W, 150, 902,
20241008, 0600, , HU, 22.0N, 89.5W, 130, 927,
20241008, 1200, , HU, 22.4N, 88.8W, 130, 929,
20241008, 1800, , HU, 22.6N, 88.1W, 140, 918,
20241009, 0000, , HU, 23.0N, 86.9W, 145, 902,
20241009, 0600, , HU, 23.8N, 85.9W, 140, 908,
20241009, 1200, , HU, 25.0N, 84.8W, 125, 922,
20241009, 1800, , HU, 26.3N, 83.9W, 105, 946,
20241010, 0000, , HU, 27.2N, 82.7W, 100, 954,
20241010, 0045, L, HU, 27.3N, 82.5W, 95, 956,
20241010, 0600, , HU, 28.2N, 81.3W, 70, 976,
20241010, 1200, , EX, 28.9N, 79.5W, 65, 980,
20241010, 1800, , EX, 29.5N, 77.5W, 60, 981,

* Genesis is unchanged. However, it likely was already a tropical storm at the time based on ASCAT passes of 31 kt and 35 kt, adjusted for the low resolution of the instrument. Pre-Recon intensities are increased accordingly.
* The rapid intensification is basically unchanged with slight smoothing especially on the pressure (as it was intensifying so fast, between-pass interpolation was necessary).
* The peak intensity of 155 kt was maintained, as while the SFMR went nuts, it only deserved slight weighting - the highest FL winds (about 161 kt) support 145 kt, but it was difficult to capture in such a tiny core. Additionally, the Dvorak reading of T7.5 supports 155 kt as well. The minimum pressure of 897 mb, also unchanged from the operational NHC analysis, was at 2200Z, a non-synoptic time, as it is likely the storm strengthened up to that reading (there was a 4 nm closed eyewall) and began to fill right after it (the eyewall cycle was underway as the next pass found a concentric eyewall).
* After the eyewall cycle, the pressure seemed to oscillate in the second peak, reaching a low of 902 mb at about 2300Z, concurrent with the AF plane being several millibars higher. I went with the P-3's pressure of 902 mb as the minimum at this time. A blend of aircraft readings support an intensity of 145kt at this time (lower than the SFMR which is unreliable in a cat 5, the Dvorak estimates or the P-W relationship).
* Rapid weakening occurred soon after, especially on the 9th. The pressure rose significantly and the winds decreased as a result due to increased shear, dry air and the early stages of extratropical transition. Recon still supported 100 kt around 0000Z on October 10, however, the pressure rose a bit after the last Recon and the radar velocities dropped slightly. Hence, I estimate the landfall intensity was 95 kt, accounting for such. The pressure of 956 mb is based on the Sarasota reading of 960 mb at the airport (being offset from the true center) and storm chasers' measurements (I saw 958, 957 and 960 from some).
* Extratropical transition is moved up to 1200Z, based on the structural changes that occurred, although an argument could be made that it occurred a little earlier.

Excellent analysis as always Crazy. As for landfall, did you see the SAR pass at 23:43z? It showed maximum winds of 109kt on the west side, which neither landfall mission plane sampled. This is corroborated by peak radar velocities being observed in this portion of the storm, and chaser reports of a stronger backside. Filling to landfall and some weight for the recon data would support a 100kt landfall. These winds would have been exclusively over water & weakened before moving ashore, similar to Hurricane Ian. I believe maximum winds of about 90kt occurred over land.

 https://twitter.com/cjfieldswx/status/1844210132764459418

[USTropics]

As always, NHC did a great track forecast from the first advisory.

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1844279074564256232

Its almost magic what the NHC does.....I hope everyone affected are safe....and here's to blue skies!....

Yep. It seems that after almost every storm, Cycloneye or someone else rightfully points out how good the NHC's track was. Not always, but enough to bet on comfortably. Still, before landfall,there are the dozens of people on the board with the "What are they looking at??!," or "They should have adjusted it in the 11:00 update," or smilar comments. I guess questioning and what-if'ing the official track is part of the attraction and spirit of S2K, but, when push comes to shove, it sure is hard not to respect the OFCL track.

Of course, then there's the ICON...

As Milton is now extra tropical, wanted to take a numerical look at some of the verification scores.

In terms of track error, here are the verification scores for mean absolute positional error:


NHC/official forecast and TVCN again performed really well in the long range (96-120) hour track. While Helene was one the very rare times the TVCN and NHC track underperformed compared to the deterministic models, you can't really do much better on the long range forecast here. ECMWF and HWRF also did really good with the track (HWRF has been doing much better with track this year, small virtual tear to its retirement in November).

Short term forecast period (24-72 hours), the CTCX has great scores relative to the other models in part due to it being the only model that picked up on the early dive towards the Yucatan peninsula. Its ultimate track was too far north, but it continues to also perform well for strong hurricanes.

Now on to the intensity verification scores. As you can imagine, this was a very difficult storm for the models to forecast (and in general, intensity is much more difficult to forecast compared to track, which has more to do with synoptic scale features). There's a universal under forecasting of intensity by ALL the models through 96 hours essentially, then we start to see our intensity biases creep into the hurricane models for 96-120 hours. This was one of the storms where the HAFSA and HAFSB really shined in intensity verification:

[CrazyC83]

As far as the best track of Milton, here's my analysis looking through all the data available.

AL142024, MILTON, 26,
20241005, 0000, , LO, 21.1N, 95.2W, 30, 1008,
20241005, 0600, , LO, 21.6N, 95.4W, 35, 1006,
20241005, 1200, , TS, 22.1N, 95.5W, 35, 1005,
20241005, 1800, , TS, 22.5N, 95.6W, 40, 1004,
20241006, 0000, , TS, 22.7N, 95.4W, 40, 1002,
20241006, 0600, , TS, 22.6N, 95.2W, 45, 996,
20241006, 1200, , TS, 22.5N, 94.8W, 55, 990,
20241006, 1800, , HU, 22.5N, 94.1W, 70, 986,
20241007, 0000, , HU, 22.4N, 93.4W, 80, 980,
20241007, 0600, , HU, 22.2N, 92.9W, 95, 970,
20241007, 1200, , HU, 21.8N, 92.2W, 120, 945,
20241007, 1800, , HU, 21.7N, 91.3W, 150, 910,
20241007, 2200, P, HU, 21.8N, 90.7W, 155, 897,
20241008, 0000, , HU, 21.8N, 90.4W, 150, 902,
20241008, 0600, , HU, 22.0N, 89.5W, 130, 927,
20241008, 1200, , HU, 22.4N, 88.8W, 130, 929,
20241008, 1800, , HU, 22.6N, 88.1W, 140, 918,
20241009, 0000, , HU, 23.0N, 86.9W, 145, 902,
20241009, 0600, , HU, 23.8N, 85.9W, 140, 908,
20241009, 1200, , HU, 25.0N, 84.8W, 125, 922,
20241009, 1800, , HU, 26.3N, 83.9W, 105, 946,
20241010, 0000, , HU, 27.2N, 82.7W, 100, 954,
20241010, 0045, L, HU, 27.3N, 82.5W, 95, 956,
20241010, 0600, , HU, 28.2N, 81.3W, 70, 976,
20241010, 1200, , EX, 28.9N, 79.5W, 65, 980,
20241010, 1800, , EX, 29.5N, 77.5W, 60, 981,

* Genesis is unchanged. However, it likely was already a tropical storm at the time based on ASCAT passes of 31 kt and 35 kt, adjusted for the low resolution of the instrument. Pre-Recon intensities are increased accordingly.
* The rapid intensification is basically unchanged with slight smoothing especially on the pressure (as it was intensifying so fast, between-pass interpolation was necessary).
* The peak intensity of 155 kt was maintained, as while the SFMR went nuts, it only deserved slight weighting - the highest FL winds (about 161 kt) support 145 kt, but it was difficult to capture in such a tiny core. Additionally, the Dvorak reading of T7.5 supports 155 kt as well. The minimum pressure of 897 mb, also unchanged from the operational NHC analysis, was at 2200Z, a non-synoptic time, as it is likely the storm strengthened up to that reading (there was a 4 nm closed eyewall) and began to fill right after it (the eyewall cycle was underway as the next pass found a concentric eyewall).
* After the eyewall cycle, the pressure seemed to oscillate in the second peak, reaching a low of 902 mb at about 2300Z, concurrent with the AF plane being several millibars higher. I went with the P-3's pressure of 902 mb as the minimum at this time. A blend of aircraft readings support an intensity of 145kt at this time (lower than the SFMR which is unreliable in a cat 5, the Dvorak estimates or the P-W relationship).
* Rapid weakening occurred soon after, especially on the 9th. The pressure rose significantly and the winds decreased as a result due to increased shear, dry air and the early stages of extratropical transition. Recon still supported 100 kt around 0000Z on October 10, however, the pressure rose a bit after the last Recon and the radar velocities dropped slightly. Hence, I estimate the landfall intensity was 95 kt, accounting for such. The pressure of 956 mb is based on the Sarasota reading of 960 mb at the airport (being offset from the true center) and storm chasers' measurements (I saw 958, 957 and 960 from some).
* Extratropical transition is moved up to 1200Z, based on the structural changes that occurred, although an argument could be made that it occurred a little earlier.

Excellent analysis as always Crazy. As for landfall, did you see the SAR pass at 23:43z? It showed maximum winds of 109kt on the west side, which neither landfall mission plane sampled. This is corroborated by peak radar velocities being observed in this portion of the storm, and chaser reports of a stronger backside. Filling to landfall and some weight for the recon data would support a 100kt landfall. These winds would have been exclusively over water & weakened before moving ashore, similar to Hurricane Ian. I believe maximum winds of about 90kt occurred over land.

https://twitter.com/cjfieldswx/status/1844210132764459418

I did not see that pass. I was using the 118 kt FL at about 2200Z (using 80% rule there due to the shear similar to Wilma and Zeta - about 100 kt), the radar velocities afterward and the pressure rises.

I believe the KZC for 956 mb would also be about 95 kt? I was deliberating on the intensity looking at the data, but I felt the weighing was strong enough to lower it.

[Ubuntwo]

I did not see that pass. I was using the 118 kt FL at about 2200Z (using 80% rule there due to the shear similar to Wilma and Zeta - about 100 kt), the radar velocities afterward and the pressure rises.

I believe the KZC for 956 mb would also be about 95 kt? I was deliberating on the intensity looking at the data, but I felt the weighing was strong enough to lower it.

The SAR pass makes a case for recon undersampling due to no passes through the western side.

With radar, on approach to landfall, the core winds sampled were moving increasingly perpendicular to the radar site. As the north winds on the backside came in, radar velocities again spiked to 100-105kt between 11:20 PM and midnight (ET). This is related to sampling of the higher winds on the backside and these winds moving directly towards the radar site. If peak averaged velocities were 105kt on the western side three hours after landfall, standard decay would yield about 120kt for velocities in this part of the storm at landfall. Jet interaction may have slowed the decay of winds aloft, but this is consistent with the partial sampling by recon and the earlier SAR pass.

Interestingly, the last north side dropsonde found 150m avg winds of 106kt, suggesting that mixing in this part of the storm was better than one would expect for a jet interaction ie Zeta or Francine.

Either way, we can both agree there is a decent case to be made for a slight lowering of landfall intensity.

[hipshot]

This is probably the peak of power outages in the storm, now that it has moved off the coast:

https://i.imgur.com/KJVA9WJ.png

30% of Floridians without power (3.41M households out of 11.6M)

68% of Tampa Bay metro area residents without power (1.17M out of 1.71M)
76% of Sarasota metro area residents without power (425K out of 561K)
33% of Orlando metro area residents without power (374K out of 1.13M)
49% of Lee County residents without power (248K out of 504K)
62% of Daytona Beach metro area residents without power (244K out of 395K)
53% of Polk County residents without power (201K out of 379K)

It actually went up a little.
3,433,977

https://imgur.com/a/94Umw5H

Is it true that most of the power is underground or just in new subdivisions?

I have underground power where I live in Texas but...to get to the underground it comes above ground on poles, towers etc. If those
go down you still lose power.

[HurricaneBelle]

My experience from Clearwater, just off Main street and about 3 miles from the beach was this was the strongest hurricane I've been in since Fran in 1996, The winds stayed at around 75-80mph for HOURS! I don't have a way of knowing that for sure but after going through quite a few I'd put the winds at that range and there were definitely a lot of gusts to over 100mph. Obviously I didn't have a way to record that but the damage I saw matches those types of winds. Tree's down on powerlines, Smaller structures blocks away like people's wooden sheds etc. Definitely an experience. The amount of time the wind stayed consistently high surprised me even though I'd already seen on social media to watch out for the sting jet would likely be sitting over most of southern pinellas county, was surprised those winds made it to where they did in Clearwater, not sure if it ever got as windy here in my place in Oldsmar, Power only went out for a few hours in Oldsmar but is still out in a lot of clearwater. Surprisingly 3 miles east of my location an apartment complex completely flooded out from the rain ruining probably 15-20 cars. I got out of there first thing in the morning though so the damage could have been worse in the area than the area I saw.

Is that the apartment complex near Drew & 19? If so that one's been flooding for decades and the last place I'd have wanted to be in Milton.

[HurricaneBelle]

I have underground power where I live in Texas but...to get to the underground it comes above ground on poles, towers etc. If those
go down you still lose power.

That's what happened to me in Clearwater (my house that is per the Duke Energy map, I'm still in Tallahassee) - the lines in my neighborhood are underground and we never lost power during Debby and Helene while many around us did, but Milton knocked it out last night and it's still not back.

[kassi]

It actually went up a little.
3,433,977

https://imgur.com/a/94Umw5H

Is it true that most of the power is underground or just in new subdivisions?

I have underground power where I live in Texas but...to get to the underground it comes above ground on poles, towers etc. If those
go down you still lose power.

So what is the point?

[jabman98]

I'm in extreme SETX and I feel like it would have been worse here. Heck, nearly 3 million lost power for cat 1 Beryl and that was just in the Houston area. I don't know how long the outages lasted, but for one relative it was well over a week. I can only assume they have underground power in Florida.

Some of that was Centerpoint's failure to maintain areas around lines, like trimming trees, etc. Had they been doing that as they were supposed to do the power outages would not have been as bad. I talked to linemen in from Arkansas in my neighborhood after Beryl who were kind of taken aback by just how many trees there were on lines. They said it was way more complicated to work through than they'd expected. And this was after the derecho in May when we'd had a lot of trees/limbs down and were without power for a week.

Underground lines seem to be less vulnerable to hurricanes and trees on lines but maintaining the lines and clearances around lines would help.

[Nimbus]

My experience from Clearwater, just off Main street and about 3 miles from the beach was this was the strongest hurricane I've been in since Fran in 1996, The winds stayed at around 75-80mph for HOURS! I don't have a way of knowing that for sure but after going through quite a few I'd put the winds at that range and there were definitely a lot of gusts to over 100mph. Obviously I didn't have a way to record that but the damage I saw matches those types of winds. Tree's down on powerlines, Smaller structures blocks away like people's wooden sheds etc. Definitely an experience. The amount of time the wind stayed consistently high surprised me even though I'd already seen on social media to watch out for the sting jet would likely be sitting over most of southern pinellas county, was surprised those winds made it to where they did in Clearwater, not sure if it ever got as windy here in my place in Oldsmar, Power only went out for a few hours in Oldsmar but is still out in a lot of clearwater. Surprisingly 3 miles east of my location an apartment complex completely flooded out from the rain ruining probably 15-20 cars. I got out of there first thing in the morning though so the damage could have been worse in the area than the area I saw.

There were rain rates as high as 13 inches an hour in Dunedin, one of my friends there was flash flooded by 6 inches of water in his apartment that ruined the carpet his computer and everything. I'm on generator running fans to conserve gasoline. Duke hasn't given time estimates for restoration and the gas stations were out Tuesday. Texas folks know all about that routine.

[fllawyer]

Denis Philips sounding very concerned for Tampa Bay, saying that he is not seeing any easterly component to spare the Bay area, and that yes while it has weakened wind wise, its just right now a big machine pushing energy and water onto the coast.

i was worried he was a bit too confident the last two days about that big right hook...hope it still happens but thought he was putting too much faith in "these storms always wobble south and east"

Never lose faith in the ICON.

Posts like these didn’t age well for those clinging to certain models (like ICON and others) which continued to insist on more northerly landfall quite literally up until landfall. Interestingly, GFS sniffed this out earlier yesterday when it quickly shifted south (and was followed by other hurricane models).

It was really fascinating to see NHC peg close to the initial landfall location at the first advisory and then continue to insist on a hook right. It was even more fascinating/nailbiting to see that verify in real time at the last possible moment. Truly in awe of those folks.

Experienced the eye in Sarasota. Pretty incredible to see the calmness that followed insane winds that were easily gusting in the 80-100mph range.

Want to express appreciation to all those who contributed their knowledge in positing the last week or so.

[Nimbus]

i was worried he was a bit too confident the last two days about that big right hook...hope it still happens but thought he was putting too much faith in "these storms always wobble south and east"

Never lose faith in the ICON.

Posts like these didn’t age well for those clinging to certain models (like ICON and others) which continued to insist on more northerly landfall quite literally up until landfall. Interestingly, GFS sniffed this out earlier yesterday when it quickly shifted south (and was followed by other hurricane models).

It was really fascinating to see NHC peg close to the initial landfall location at the first advisory and then continue to insist on a hook right. It was even more fascinating/nailbiting to see that verify in real time at the last possible moment. Truly in awe of those folks.

Experienced the eye in Sarasota. Pretty incredible to see the calmness that followed insane winds that were easily gusting in the 80-100mph range.

Want to express appreciation to all those who contributed their knowledge in positing the last week or so.

That was the right hook in the Pizza Hut GFS run, they actually correctly forecast the track with a slow EWRC

[redingtonbeach]

King Euro. Path spot on early and wind tracking through the state was near flawless. Timing was a bit suspect, however, but understandable.