ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 94, 2024101012, , BEST, 0, 140N, 189W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, SPAWNINVEST, al752024 to al942024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942024.dat

[Pasmorade]

AL, 94, 2024101012, , BEST, 0, 140N, 189W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, SPAWNINVEST, al752024 to al942024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942024.dat

That tropical wave near Cabo Verde? That's the last thing I'd expect to be an invest...

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginal for limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[zzzh]

EPS has some signal on 94L as it passes ~60W. Little development is expected before that.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Recent satellite wind data show that a broad low pressure area with
winds of 30 to 35 mph has formed in association with a tropical
wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, the
system's shower and thunderstorm activity is currently poorly
organized. Some additional development could occur while it moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
and the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Friday. By Saturday,
upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable, and further
development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development,
localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent

[galaxy401]

Seems like we could be tracking this system for awhile. Maybe it'll be upgraded 2 weeks after this thread is created.

[cycloneye]

Is not common to see a invest close to Cape Verde Islands on October 10th.

[MarioProtVI]

Seems like we could be tracking this system for awhile. Maybe it'll be upgraded 2 weeks after this thread is created.

Or today, seeing as it’s 40/40 now and has a shot to become a short lived Nadine

[HurricaneRyan]

D.W. seems to be ready to give Nadine another vacation.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently displaced to the east of the low-level center of an area
of low pressure located over the southwestern portion of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Some additional development is possible, and a
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form while
the system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Cabo Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today.
On Saturday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive, and further development appears unlikely after that time.
Regardless of development, localized areas of heavy rain and gusty
winds are likely today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/dmorris9661/status/1844699849347743888

[Subtrop]

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance near
the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94).

Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
Updated: Very recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
winds to tropical storm force are occurring over portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands in association with an area of low pressure
centered near the southwestern portion of the archipelago.
However, the satellite data showed that the circulation is
elongated, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Some additional development is possible, and
a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo Verde
Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today. On Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, winds to tropical storm force and areas of heavy rain
are likely to continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through tonight. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Teban54]

Hmm, a special outlook for 50/50?

[AJC3]

Hmm, a special outlook for 50/50?

It's because of ongoing TS force winds being experienced, and irrespective of development probs.

Visible satellite is pretty impressive - that's an unusually vigorous circulation rolling through the CVI.

[zhukm29]

Looks like ASCAT hit as well. Looks a lot more organized to me.

[kevin]

Looks like ASCAT hit as well. Looks a lot more organized to me.

https://i.ibb.co/ts4pmTD/WMBds124.png

Looks pretty good, winds support a TD/TS both on ASCAT and ground measurements. I'm curious that the NHC will say about the organization at 11am based on the ASCAT hit.

[tropicwatch]

Curious how the NHC says possible short-lived system but the spaghetti models want to carry 94L close to the Lesser Antilles. The EURO also hints at development close to the Lesser Antilles too.

[Teban54]

Curious how the NHC says possible short-lived system but the spaghetti models want to carry 94L close to the Lesser Antilles. The EURO also hints at development close to the Lesser Antilles too.

Probably because even if 94L becomes a TC right now, it's expected to dissipate in the Central Atlantic and only possibly reform further west as it gets closer to land. The NHC considers each "iteration" of a storm's life separately, even if there's a chance of reformation being anticipated the first time it dissipates.

For example, the following was said for remnants of Harvey in the Caribbean:

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs or if tropical
cyclone watches or warnings are required for land areas.

[cycloneye]

[AJC3]

Hmm, a special outlook for 50/50?

It's because of ongoing TS force winds being experienced, and irrespective of development probs.

Visible satellite is pretty impressive - that's an unusually vigorous circulation rolling through the CVI.

Also, given the ASCAT presentation that was posted above, we'll probably see those numbers go up some at 2PM.