WPAC: INVEST 91W

[Hayabusa]

91W INVEST 241011 1200 14.6N 131.9E WPAC 15 0

[Pasmorade]

Huh. Neat.

[Hayabusa]

Now low... but models aren't excited

ABPW10 PGTW 120000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120000Z-120600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3N
130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY ORGANIZING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF CONVECTION 91W, SHOWING A
FLARING CONVECTION, WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (15-20KTS), OFFSET WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31C) CURRENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RELATIVELY WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

There is an HFAS run for 91W, despite being low chance in the advisory, and the hyping HFAS is also not excited