ATL: OSCAR - Models

[cycloneye]

Yikes Euro.

[jlauderdal]

Yikes Euro.

Roh roh, a long tracker in late oct.

[cycloneye]

And it ends here.

[Ubuntwo]

lol...ok.

https://i.postimg.cc/GpGW59n4/ggggg.png

https://i.postimg.cc/pT1JQYcz/bbbb.png

This is from 94L, believe it or not.

[TomballEd]

lol...ok.

https://i.postimg.cc/GpGW59n4/ggggg.png

https://i.postimg.cc/pT1JQYcz/bbbb.png

That is 94L. Whether it gets dropped as an invest and gets a new number, who knows.

About 20% of the Euro ensembles see this system the GEFS are enthusiastic about next week. All but one go into Central America, a few survive into the BoC.

That any ECENS see the GFS system isn't a good sign. The bad thing about Mitch, it stalled over very high OHC in the Caribbean. If this system does form and does stall for a while, it could be a significant storm. New GEFS has a few stronger members that get pulled into the Gulf (10% of members see another Florida storm). Not sleeping on this but I think 94L has a better chance of development, just beyond the 7 day range NHC forecasts.

[zzzh]

EPS has some decent signals once 94L crosses 60W

[gatorcane]

And it ends here.

https://i.imgur.com/IfCZa0e.png

Question is where would it go from there? I would think there would be some weakness to the north that would cause it to get pulled north if it makes it that far north in the NW Caribbean. Looking at the EC-AIFS which has picked up on this system making it into the NW Caribbean also, it is trending with more of a weakness to the north over the Southern US, other models show a cut-off low, last 5 runs below. This feature could cause it to turn north so something to keep an eye on:



GFS long-range (228-300hr):

[underthwx]

And it ends here.

https://i.imgur.com/IfCZa0e.png

Question is where would it go from there? I would think there would be some weakness to the north that would cause it to get pulled north if it makes it that far north in the NW Caribbean. Looking at the EC-AIFS which has picked up on this system making it into the NW Caribbean also, it is trending with more of a weakness to the north over the Southern US, other models show a cut-off low, last 5 runs below. This feature could cause it to turn north so something to keep an eye on:

https://i.postimg.cc/yYY98kW1/ec-aifs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh228-trend.gif

GFS long-range (228-300hr):
https://i.postimg.cc/x8tcr3Sw/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-fh228-300.gif

I agree with you....the way this season has gone thus far...
its entirely possible....have to watch this...

[blp]

Euro ENS

[Nimbus]

And it ends here.

https://i.imgur.com/IfCZa0e.png

With fairly strong ridging to its north.
Hopefully that will be a Tuesday's gone that puts an end to development from the wave train coming off Africa for the season.

[zzzh]

18Z EPS nearly dropped all development.

[blp]

18Z EPS nearly dropped all development.

Next 24 hrs yes but then starts to come back. 12z also lost it for a few hours. Only out to 144hr in 18z or else I would expect much more active later in the Caribbean.

[zzzh]

18Z EPS nearly dropped all development.

Next 24 hrs yes but then starts to come back. 12z also lost it for a few hours. Only out to 144hr in 18z or else I would expect much more active later in the Caribbean.

https://i.ibb.co/6Zc47J2/ecens-2024-10-12-18-Z-144-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

I was looking at this. It looks like there is something wrong with the weathermodel EPS plot lol

[blp]

GFS no longer drops this. We got all the major models on board this survives and heads into the Caribbean.

[Teban54]

GFS no longer drops this. We got all the major models on board this survives and heads into the Caribbean.

GFS really wants a repeat of the Eta-Iota one-two punch:

[cycloneye]

00z Euro.

[SFLcane]

Seems like the @NHC_Atlantic is running models again on 94L

[BobHarlem]

Interesting 12z icon run with 94L Not sure I recall a system that moved SW near/over Hispaniola to get to Jamaica.

[jlauderdal]

Interesting 12z icon run with 94L Not sure I recall a system that moved SW near/over Hispaniola to get to Jamaica.

I sent the SEFL deflector shield to cycloneye.

[Michele B]

Euro ENS

https://i.ibb.co/fv99LSm/42830013.gif

That is pretty insane to go all that way....in the middle of OCTOBER!!!