ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[Bob R]

 https://x.com/tropicalupdate/status/1845617848909013052

[aspen]

This looks like the kind of track you’d get in peak season. October is the new September I guess lol.

[wzrgirl1]

Cycloneye do you still feel Nadine will not form from this invest?

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing minimal showers and
thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable
environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple
of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become
more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part
of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a
dry environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more
favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of
this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1845834021713936874




How is this not a depression?

[underthwx]

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1845834021713936874




How is this not a depression?

94L continues spinning out there....won't be surprised to see a depression...or tropical storm evolve from this feature....the question on everyone's mind...and rightfully so...is where wil 94L track to?....and in what form will it attain?.....this system looks like one that the NHC may upgrade to a depression or possibly a tropical storm...in a short time period from the way 94L appears now.....will have to wait and see...

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/WsOyToy.gif

i am sorry but giving this a 10% is disrespectful to the science of tropical cyclone meteorology. Makes me sad.

Believe it not, this is still very much an open trough.

[wxman57]

Could well briefly spin up into a TS, but it appears that it would run into a wall of shear if it approached the Gulf or Bahamas. Gulf is closed for business by a strong west to east jet.

[cycloneye]

Atlántico Tropical Central (AL94): Un área bien definida de baja
presión localizada aproximadamente a mitad de camino entre las Islas
de Cabo Verde y las Antillas Menores está produciendo actividad
limitada de aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas. Este sistema está
actualmente incrustado en un ambiente de aire seco, y es poco
probable que se desarrolle durante los próximos dos días. Sin
embargo, se pronostica que este sistema se moverá generalmente hacia
el oeste hacia aguas más cálidas, y las condiciones ambientales
podrían volverse más favorables para el desarrollo gradual para la
mitad a última parte de esta semana. Una depresión tropical podría
formarse a medida que el sistema comienza a moverse hacia el oeste-
noroeste y se acerca o se mueve cerca de las Islas de Sotavento a
fines de esta semana.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 48 horas...baja...10 por ciento.
* Probabilidad de formación hasta 7 días...medio...60 por ciento.

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/WsOyToy.gif

i am sorry but giving this a 10% is disrespectful to the science of tropical cyclone meteorology. Makes me sad.

Believe it not, this is still very much an open trough.

I do not believe this is an open trough

[floridasun]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1845834021713936874




How is this not a depression?

Quick blow ups of storms near the naked LLC don't get the job down. If the convection could persist. I'd still look further W, maybe 55 or 60W. ECENS have a strong signal for development. For now, most miss the Caribbean but a few come close or even cross P.R. or D.R.

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1845834021713936874




How is this not a depression?

There's very little convection and it's not persistent. Seems straight forward to me /shrug

[chaser1]

 https://x.com/zoom_earth/status/1845834021713936874




How is this not a depression?

Quick blow ups of storms near the naked LLC don't get the job down. If the convection could persist. I'd still look further W, maybe 55 or 60W. ECENS have a strong signal for development. For now, most miss the Caribbean but a few come close or even cross P.R. or D.R.

I'm thinking the same. Whether a slight reduction in relative shear and/or an increasingly moist environment might be the separation between a strong TD (or TS) and a vibrant Invest lacking much of a mid-level column and just weak enough to stretch the surface inflow from the south quite some distance as indicated by ASCAT. There's no question that a fairly tight shallow level vortex does appear on vis satellite but looking closely, it appears to being steered south of due west by the surface flow while the sporadic convective bursting and outflow seemingly suggestive of a more WNW influence. It looks to me as more an issue of dry air temporarily mitigating any kind of CDO to quite develop than an issue of vertical shear. Nothing from either the GFS or EURO 300-700 mb RH charts suggest much change in terms of relative humidity alone for at least 24 hr.'s and only perhaps slightly improved conditions on approach to the Leeward Islands. The only caveat might be the warmer SST that it looks to traverse around 50W in about 72 hr's which might well be NHC's thinking with it's 10/60 probability of development. I could see a possible scenario where this eventually could be a small compact Cat 1/2 hurricane north of P.R. that tracks westward to slightly S of due west to a point just south of Andros Island between 150 hr's - 165 hr's, with potential impact to the lower Keys or N. Cuba, and perhaps a SW motion toward the Yucatan Peninsula. All that is assuming a ton of variables such as EURO long range forecast mid-level height trends, long range GFS and other global 200mb wind, and a blend of long-range global model genesis and speed of motion. Bottom line is that this weird season continues on.

[Cachondo23]

Very rare track, moving SW to the NE of Hispaniola?

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located over the central
tropical Atlantic is producing occasional showers and
thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a dry air
environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A
tropical depression could form as the system begins moving
west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands
late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[chaser1]

Very rare track, moving SW to the NE of Hispaniola?

True. Some of the more squirrely storm tracks have occured in October though

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1846028848967598495

[Pasmorade]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1846028848967598495

What are the chances that the NHC recognize this as a tropical cyclone tomorrow?