Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

Its getting frustrating with the lack of rain , but cant complain about cooler temps, im so over the 90’s, its disgusting and just makes being outside completely miserable along with the mosquitoes

[CaptinCrunch]

Its getting frustrating with the lack of rain , but cant complain about cooler temps, im so over the 90’s, its disgusting and just makes being outside completely miserable along with the mosquitoes

We should be close to the low 90s today before the next push of cooler air move in over night.

[Ntxw]

Some cool days but looking like warmth will return next week.

Some cold air should build in W-Canada may help cool it off again closer to Halloween period.

[rwfromkansas]

The freeze in Kansas tonight is basically on average, so that’s good.

But need rain.

[Stratton23]

I wouldnt mind a cold halloween and the GFS has the right setup for it, but this front tommorow will feel amazing

[Brent]

Yeah this is the first time I've felt actually chilly

Would be nice if there was some rain

[Stratton23]

Long range but thats some pretty significant cold air ( for october standards) building and getting unleashed into the central and western US during the week of halloween on the 18z GFS,

[Ntxw]

Long range but thats some pretty significant cold air ( for october standards) building and getting unleashed into the central and western US during the week of halloween on the 18z GFS,

I think it's believe-able this time despite a little far out. There is ENS support, sufficient cold air, better Pacific the piece on this run is good Atlantic blocking to deliver.

TPV spinning in Hudson Bay is a good cold air building machine.

[fendie]

As Brent said, he felt it. That’s the best moment every year for us Texans. Hottest day of the year is behind us and that first season changing cold front won’t be long behind. Moisture will return and boundaries will lead to some liquid gold. Now we look upstream for blocking and snow cover. Beyond that it’s just a dance with timing. Besides that first blue N’oreaster I’m ready to move to the winter like we always do down here.

[Stratton23]

From what ive heard, snowpack is running well above normal in eastern europe and Siberia, thats what you want to see for sure

[jasons2k]

Front finally moving into SE Texas.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Long range but thats some pretty significant cold air ( for october standards) building and getting unleashed into the central and western US during the week of halloween on the 18z GFS,

I think it's believe-able this time despite a little far out. There is ENS support, sufficient cold air, better Pacific the piece on this run is good Atlantic blocking to deliver.

TPV spinning in Hudson Bay is a good cold air building machine.

I know people have mentioned the qbo over the years and sunspots. Imo, I think with the qbo being positive or westerly and higher sunspots, that should promote more blocking episodes this winter. The west pacific still being warm isn't ideal for us, but if the blocking can be strong enough, that should supersede everything else. Maybe ice and sleet, but I'm not complaining!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Long range but thats some pretty significant cold air ( for october standards) building and getting unleashed into the central and western US during the week of halloween on the 18z GFS,

I think it's believe-able this time despite a little far out. There is ENS support, sufficient cold air, better Pacific the piece on this run is good Atlantic blocking to deliver.

TPV spinning in Hudson Bay is a good cold air building machine.

I know people have mentioned the qbo over the years and sunspots. Imo, I think with the qbo being positive or westerly and higher sunspots, that should promote more blocking episodes this winter. The west pacific still being warm isn't ideal for us, but if the blocking can be strong enough, that should supersede everything else. Maybe ice and sleet, but I'm not complaining!!

Hoping much of that warm water rolls eastward with the current.

[CaptinCrunch]

It will feel nice the next 4-5 days, but I see 90 on the horizon by next Tuesday

Our source region for cold is continues to gain ground on snow pack and polar Ice build up as we move further into Fall.

[starsfan65]

It will feel nice the next 4-5 days, but I see 90 on the horizon by next Tuesday

I thought we were done with the 90's.

[CaptinCrunch]

It will feel nice the next 4-5 days, but I see 90 on the horizon by next Tuesday

I thought we were done with the 90's.

Until we can get continued cool fronts pushing down we are going to warm up. I don't see anything crazy, just a few days into that 90 degree mark.

.LONG TERM... /Issued 327 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Thursday night will once again be fairly cool across the region.
A 10-15 degree spread in temperatures is expected by Friday
morning as mid-level clouds are expected west of I-35. This
should limit overnight radiational cooling keeping temperatures in
the lower to mid 50s. East of the I-35 corridor, better
radiational cooling should allow for temperatures to dip into the
lower to mid 40s.

Heading into the weekend, a well amplified trough will emerge out
of the Pacific Northwest diving southeastward toward the Four
Corners. Enough deepening should occur for this area of low
pressure to become cut-off from the main steering flow. With this
low remaining west of our region, deep southerly winds will
develop across North and Central Texas allowing for better
moisture to spread into our region. Although overall rain chances
continue to look less probable, the higher relative humidity
values should help mitigate the fire threat through the weekend.

If you`re enjoying today`s cooler temperatures, soak it in as the
temperature trend looks fairly disappointing. Temperatures this
weekend will be in mid 70s to mid 80s. As we progress into next
week, strong ridging will emerge out of the western Gulf of
Mexico. This will shut off all precipitation chances and drive
temperatures into the mid 80s to lower 90s by the middle of next
week. This could lead to another round of potentially record-
breaking hot temperatures Wednesday through Friday of next week.

[South Texas Storms]

It feels amazing outside today! Spending a lot of time outdoors the next few days before the warmth returns next week.

[Brent]

It will feel nice the next 4-5 days, but I see 90 on the horizon by next Tuesday

I thought we were done with the 90's.

Are we ever done?

But seriously I'm afraid of wasting this cold this early anyway(Tulsa was one degree off the record low this morning cold in October has destroyed our winters recently) so I'm fine with a warmup for now. Still need rain badly though

[gpsnowman]

It feels amazing outside today! Spending a lot of time outdoors the next few days before the warmth returns next week.

Preach it STS. Did some yardwork today and washed both cars. Feels wonderful. I've been waiting for a day like this for a while. A couple more nice days before the inevitable warmup. Close to 90 like CapnCrunch mentioned. Hopefully the talk of a Halloween cool down isn't a fall fakeout.

[Stratton23]

Now this is how texas fall weather should be like! Feels so pleasant ! Not looking forward to the disgusting warmth returning