2024 WPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

GFS wilding out with the MJO fixing to go strong over the WPAC.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 12Z continues showing sub 900 pressures

[mrbagyo]

I think we now have the incipient disturbance of our monster model typhoon

[Hayabusa]

00Z Euro, EPS, and an 885 mb member...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haven't seen the ECMWF this bullish this far out in a hot minute

[doomhaMwx]

00Z Euro, EPS, and an 885 mb member...
https://i.imgur.com/v0T0cBI.gif
https://i.imgur.com/brb9XfM.png

That 885 mb member peaks at 874 mb 252 hours out. Crazy.

[cycloneye]

Future 95W taking shape.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has some serious WPAC ACE.

[Hayabusa]

Models for a while now have a TC forming northeast of Luzon pretty soon, also they now seem to like developing 91W...
12z

[Hayabusa]

Euro 12z op developing...

Eps 12z, but hinting something developing even before the latest op run

[Hayabusa]

Looks like the basin will truly wake up again either next week or coming 3rd week

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Last time I saw this, there was barely a resurgence. But I'm hoping for some *harmless* action.

Signs do point out lots of activity coming. Let's see...

Unfortunately, cool-neutral to La Niña conditions in the late season don't usually bode well for us in the Philippines (2016, 2020, 2021). So far, we have largely been spared of intense hits a la Rai in most of the islands. Only one was Krathon.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1846701061253243084

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS and the ECMWF in strikingly good agreement on two powerful typhoons --- one turning west to the PH and the other recurving. Could get a sizable typhoon days, C3 days and ACE boost.

[Ed_2001]

Since Trami fell short of original model predictions due to its huge size and shear, Kong-Rey might become the biggest ACE generator of this (expectedly but once again underwhelming) typhoon season. Current ACE is only 128.6 which is a bit over 50% of average to date. Despite the inactivity we've definitely seen very impactful storms this year. However, 2020-24 will go down as among the least active 5 year periods in terms of ACE since records started in 1950.

According to wikipedia the two previous 5 year nadirs that I noticed were 1973 - 77 (989.8 units, or around 198 units a year) and 2007 - 11 (987.1/197.4 a year). Currently for 2020 - 24 we're at (922.7/184.5). This year would need to generate at least 64.4 more units of ACE (as of 18z 10/25) to avoid breaking a record. Not impossible, but will be difficult. According to Colorado State University's real time ACE tracker, WPAC still has around 53 units of ACE left to generate on average.

Long term activity trends from climate change aside (which still has a lot of uncertainty and competing factors), I do have a feeling that the next few years will be more active again.

[dexterlabio]

^ -PDO -ENSO combo really holding back the Pacific

[Ed_2001]

^ -PDO -ENSO combo really holding back the Pacific

The fact that 4 out of the last 5 seasons were -ENSO and the one strong +ENSO year significantly underproduced in number (even though the quality of storms that year were definitely pretty typical for a strong +ENSO), and I don't think the PDO rose to positive even once during this period.

[dexterlabio]

^ -PDO -ENSO combo really holding back the Pacific

The fact that 4 out of the last 5 seasons were -ENSO and the one strong +ENSO year significantly underproduced in number (even though the quality of storms that year were definitely pretty typical for a strong +ENSO), and I don't think the PDO rose to positive even once during this period.

^Yup, last year despite a pretty potent El Niño it was offset by -PDO to put a cap on the WPAC season. At first I doubted the -PDO influence on TC activity in this basin but looking back, 1972 and 2009 were also pretty strong El Niño years with -PDO...these years featured some classic El Niño howlers but the total number of storms and ACE were underwhelming for an El Niño year.

It would make sense that -PDO -ENSO combo would result to record low Pacific typhoon season. Nonetheless, even in the least active season, you can still get that one (or two) anomaly of an intense TC, like Megi in 2010.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A season with so many letdowns yet so much catastrophe for Asia --- especially the Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam, and China. Miss seeing those with lots of long-tracking fish in the sea that live up to model hype and put no one in harm's way. Can't wait for this season to end... so badly.

[Ed_2001]

Since Trami fell short of original model predictions due to its huge size and shear, Kong-Rey might become the biggest ACE generator of this (expectedly but once again underwhelming) typhoon season.

I'm unsure about this now that Kong-Rey looks to plow into Taiwan instead of staying for several days offshore.

A season with so many letdowns yet so much catastrophe for Asia --- especially the Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam, and China. Miss seeing those with lots of long-tracking fish in the sea that live up to model hype and put no one in harm's way. Can't wait for this season to end... so badly.

Theme of 2024. Pathetic ACE, but most of the relatively short-lived majors and major to be are big land threats, plus a ton of flooding in general.

Pretty classical La Niña with a touch of AGW signal imo. No storm fully tapped into the MDR region and Philippines sea (yet) but Yagi was among the strongest in the SCS, Ampil was peaking as a C4 almost at Tokyo's latitude and Maria was a well-formed STS going due west into Northern Honshu instead of being an rapidly transitioning system speeding northeast at that latitude.

Has been said before but really dud years like 1973 1998 2010 2020 had at least one storm that fully utilized the Philippine sea. This year has been like 1999 so far but slightly more active.

[Hayabusa]

Yagi or possible Kong-rey could be the strongest this season but seems pretty underwhelming if a typhoon didn't reach at least 155kts in a hot earth with a looming la nina or still neutral...
We still have November and December left but...