ATL: NADINE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2024101718, , BEST, 0, 159N, 820W, 20, 1007, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952024.dat

[MarioProtVI]

Finally, invested. SHIPS actually has very favorable conditions FWIW, so a decent TS Nadine seems likely if it consolidates in time.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48
SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 6 2 1 4
SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0
700-500 MB RH 83 85 82 80 79 78 78
200 MB DIV 80 118 103 107 102 110 95

This goes up to landfall so anything else is arbitrary, but it does have some form of it surviving into the EPac, which would be funny if this becomes Nadine and crosses over to the EPac and that basin doesn’t manage to get another storm after.

[Nimbus]

12Z globals are tracking it across the Yucatan then west into Mexico without development at ~72 hours.
Does have that look to it with the convection persisting and low shear.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Satellite images show a broad area of low pressure over the western
Caribbean Sea is gradually becoming better defined, and nearby buoy
observations indicate surface pressures are falling. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional
development over the next couple of days. A short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the system moves inland over
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[fci]

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or two, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Pasmorade]

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure that is gradually becoming better defined to the north of
eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
additional development over the next day or so, and a short-lived
tropical depression or storm could form before the system moves
inland over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Widespread showers and thunderstorms have become a little better
organized today across the northwestern Caribbean Sea in association
with a broad area of low pressure that is gradually becoming better
defined to the north of eastern Honduras. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some additional development over the next day
or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form
before the system moves inland over Central America on Saturday.
Interests in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or
warnings may be required later today. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Central America
and southern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

This is probably a tropical cyclone....

[TomballEd]

Is this the one the GFS and its ensembles were interested in last week, or is this a different disturbance.

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/J33ciMA.gif

This is probably a tropical cyclone....

Yes....looks like it will affect Cancun directly?....lots of rain unfortunately for our friends in the region...I always worry about landslides with the higher elevations...same scenario in the Phillipines....with some of my family that live there....I always worry about excessive rainfall in areas prone to landslides....even tho my family takes it in stride....I worry anyways...

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1847370749201568159

[Jr0d]

The lack of activity on this board tells me a lot of us are fatigued from this season. Even though it is not a threat to the US, earlier in the season this would have got a lot more attention.

Unfortunately it does have the potential for deadly flooding and mudslides in Central America, even if it does not get named before landfall.

[USTropics]

The lack of activity on this board tells me a lot of us are fatigued from this season. Even though it is not a threat to the US, earlier in the season this would have got a lot more attention.

Unfortunately it does have the potential for deadly flooding and mudslides in Central America, even if it does not get named before landfall.

Here is my current analysis. We can see the low-level flow in red here, with our trade winds starting to curve around our low pressure system/PTC15. This is still a bit elongated at the surface but it's getting there. We can see in green the outflow with the ULAC associated with PTC15 (assisted by the stalled frontal zone):



The main threat over the next 4 days, as others have alluded to, is the potential for significant rain:

[Sciencerocks]

[Ubuntwo]

I believe this will be TD15 or TS Nadine by 5 given this ASCAT data.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I believe this will be TD15 or TS Nadine by 5 given this ASCAT data.
https://i.imgur.com/IpFt7ZK.png

Looks good to me.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

816
WTNT35 KNHC 190537
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORMS EAST OF BELIZE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[MarioProtVI]

...TROPICAL STORM NADINE FORMS EAST OF BELIZE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
1:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 19
Location: 17.3°N 86.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[HurricaneAndre2008]

We have Nadine.

[HurricaneRyan]

D.W. ain't happy.