WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 241019 0000 12.5N 144.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 182300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/182300Z-190600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.7N 143.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 461 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 180004Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (15-20 KTS) WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERY
WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
FORWARD. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N
144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 54 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A
WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL
GENERALLY TRACK IN A SLOW AND ERRATIC DIRECTION NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Hard to tell if 95W or 94W is the one being shown by the models showing a westward track towards the Philippines...
EPS 18z