ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Full donut of new hot towers encircling the eye now. I wonder just how strong this thing can get in the limited time it has left before shear eventually kills it.

Would be kinda funny if this becomes a major.

[Hurricane2022]

D. 991 mb
E. 125 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C3

Insane

Smallest eye ever recorded (tied with Wilma)?

[emeraldislenc]

This validates that even in late Oct and into Nov that a storm can form fast if the conditions are right. All the talk about season over is not always correct especially this year!

[tropicwatch]

D. 991 mb
E. 125 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C3

Insane

Smallest eye ever recorded (tied with Wilma)?

Not yet, that is 3 nautical miles. Wilma's was 3km or 2.3 miles.

[Hurricane2022]

987 extrap

[Travorum]

Wow assuming the extrap bias is equivalent that's a 7mb drop between runs.

[zzzh]

Hot towers are now around all quadrants of the eyewall

[zzzh]

700mb FL 76, SFMR 72. This is a hurricane.

[Travorum]

173400 2125N 07033W 6978 03045 9876 +145 +110 074032 035 041 002 00
173430 2126N 07032W 6974 03060 9889 +143 +127 092055 065 071 013 00
173500 2127N 07031W 6967 03094 9942 +118 +113 093070 076 072 016 00
173530 2128N 07030W 6965 03122 9983 +109 //// 108061 066 067 013 01
173600 2129N 07029W 6965 03137 0004 +108 //// 115055 060 061 010 01

I am eagerly awaiting this 2pm special advisory.

[aspen]

I think there might be an eye starting to appear on visible, but Oscar is so tiny that it’s hard to tell. Gonna need a magnifying glass for looking at its vis imagery.

[ColdMiser123]

Plane is now flying at 700 mb, so the 76 kt flight level wind it just found supports 65-70 kt, only slightly below SFMR now.

[galaxy401]

That eye feature that was posted on Page 7 was surely a sign that Oscar has been a TS for awhile now and already a stronger storm even by then.

[ChrisH-UK]

A dropsonde has 83 knots on the surface.

[Pasmorade]

...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...
2:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19
Location: 21.4°N 70.6°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

[Hurricane2022]

NHC is forecasting a 75 kt peak.

[aspen]

NHC is forecasting a 75 kt peak.

It’ll be there in under 3 hours lol.

[sasha_B]

NHC is forecasting a 75 kt peak.

It’ll be there in under 3 hours lol.

...if it isn't there already.

[Travorum]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162024
A. 19/17:33:10Z
B. 21.37 deg N 070.54 deg W
C. 700 mb 3017 m
D. 989 mb
E. 360 deg 1 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C7
H. 67 kt
I. 189 deg 3 nm 17:32:00Z
J. 289 deg 56 kt
K. 189 deg 3 nm 17:32:00Z
L. 72 kt
M. 014 deg 5 nm 17:35:00Z
N. 093 deg 76 kt
O. 014 deg 5 nm 17:35:00Z
P. 7 C / 3048 m
Q. 15 C / 3024 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF308 0216A OSCAR OB 11
MAX FL WIND 76 KT 014 / 5 NM 17:35:00Z
;

Reporting a 7nm diameter closed eye now.

[zzzh]

NHC is forecasting a 75 kt peak.

Just like that Milton forecast

[Xyls]

So that Icon run where this become a strong Cat 2 if not major as it heads towards Cuba/Haiti is not looking so unreasonable based on what we are seeing?

I'm not sure which storm may end up becoming more wild? Milton or Oscar if things continue...