ATL: OSCAR - Advisories

[Pasmorade]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND
NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 70.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas.

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas and a Tropical
Storm Watch for Camaguey.


Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure
located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier
this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image
that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better
organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on
the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation
was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery
missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band
scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First
light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation
has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense
overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has
formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak
estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with
a 35 kt initial intensity.

Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This
motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is
initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the
north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon
expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to
slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba
in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue
amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically
deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical
cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple
TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF
forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of
southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker
members slower and further west and stronger members being captured
by the trough.

Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for
strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity
forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the
eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite
rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its
north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There
could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the
circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and
could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down.
After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small
Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the
middle of next week.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been
issued for those locations.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
110 PM AST Sat Oct 19 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND OSCAR STRONGER...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicates that
Tropical Storm Oscar is stronger than previously estimated with
maximum sustained winds of at least 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher
gusts. The minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde
observations has also fallen to 991 mb (29.26 in).

A special advisory in lieu of the standard intermediate advisory
will be issued by 2 PM AST (18 UTC).

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TINY OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD BRACE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 71.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar.
After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a
resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that
Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny
hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC. Having
these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to
diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew
for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth
noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are
currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt
from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C
also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval
of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals
with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance
leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A
dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer
mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A
blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed
of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with
hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center,
with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting
tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily
in the northern semicircle.

Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes
indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a
subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the
next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas
this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is
soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging
southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in
Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter,
as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the
hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to
the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to
bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning
back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little
further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA
and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few
models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence.

The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very
small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the
fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or
hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right
now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is
at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an
estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more
intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite
susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions.
SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear
increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very
dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the
storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today,
small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity
changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is
able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the
deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest
forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this
evening and overnight, and could bring hurricane conditions to
eastern Cuba during the next day or two. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, and a
Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. Minor coastal
flooding is also possible along the north shore of Cuba later on
Sunday.

3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 21.4N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.2N 72.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 21.0N 74.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 20.9N 74.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 21.2N 75.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 21.9N 75.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 26.1N 72.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL OSCAR MOVING VERY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 71.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...TINY OSCAR PASSING SOUTH OF TURKS AND CAICOS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES



Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Satellite images indicate the center of Oscar passed very near Grand
Turk Island earlier this evening. Passive microwave data show the
tiny hurricane has a compact inner core with a small curved band
that wraps around much of its circulation. In the past several
hours, the cloud pattern has become a little less symmetric, with a
sharp edge to the cloud pattern on the northwest side. The
conventional satellite intensity estimates remain too low relative
to what the aircraft found this afternoon, and without any new
observations, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Oscar on Sunday.

Oscar continues moving westward at about 10 kt, but it is forecast
to turn slightly south of due west during the next day or so while
moving on the southeastern side of a mid-level ridge centered over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should bring the center of Oscar
very near or over Great Inagua in the southeastern Bahamas early
Sunday, then toward the northeastern coast of Cuba through Sunday
night. There has been a southward shift in the latest track
guidance, with more models indicating Oscar could make landfall and
move inland over eastern Cuba in 24-36 h. The latest NHC prediction
has been adjusted to reflect this and lies closest to the simple
consensus TVCN and GFEX aids. Thereafter, the track forecast becomes
more uncertain, as the extent and duration of land interaction will
dictate the depth of the vortex and how it is steered. For now, the
longer-range forecast still follows the ECMWF, which shows Oscar
turning northward and accelerating northeastward through midweek
ahead of an amplifying upper trough.

The intensity forecast for Oscar remains challenging, since its
compact size makes it susceptible to more rapid intensity
fluctuations. While some near-term intensification cannot be ruled
out, satellite trends indicate the hurricane could be starting to
feel the effects of northwesterly shear, which the global models
insist will increase during the next 12-24 h. The NHC forecast still
shows Oscar reaching the coast of Cuba as a hurricane on Sunday
night, and the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning
for a portion of the northern coast. Afterwards, land interaction
and stronger shear should induce weakening, which could occur even
faster than forecast if the center of the small cyclone remains
inland as long as some of the guidance suggests.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
and southeastern Bahamas, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued
for a portion of the northern coast of Cuba.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight
and along the north shore of Cuba later on Sunday.

3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding
along with the potential of mudslides across portions of eastern
Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 21.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 21/1200Z 20.6N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 22/1200Z 22.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 23.8N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Animation of 1-minute GOES infrared satellite images indicates that
Oscar's center has made landfall on the eastern side of Great
Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas. Small convective bursts
have occasionally been noted close to the center during the
overnight hours, suggesting that the hurricane still has a very
tight inner core. Overall, the satellite presentation is not quite
as well organized as it was yesterday afternoon, and with the
small core now over Great Inagua, the estimated intensity is lowered
slightly to 70 kt--albeit with a very large error bar. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate Oscar
in a few hours.

Oscar is moving south of due west (260 degrees), still at about 10
kt. Due to strong mid-level ridging to the north and west, Oscar
is forecast to turn west-southwestward this morning, which will
bring the center to the coast of northeastern Cuba later this
afternoon. The ridge is expected to be replaced by a developing
mid- to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic in 24-48
hours, which should cause Oscar to turn westward and then northward
while inland over Cuba on Monday. Oscar is then forecast to
accelerate northeastward over the central Bahamas on Tuesday ahead
of the trough. The NHC track forecast is very close to the HCCA
consensus aid for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and then more
closely follows a blend of HCCA with TVCA after that time. This
forecast is not too different from the previous prediction.

Oscar's small size will continue to make it susceptible to
intensity fluctuations, but the cyclone is expected to reach
northeastern Cuba as a hurricane later this afternoon. That small
size will also make the core vulnerable to being heavily disrupted
by the terrain of eastern Cuba, which rises several thousand feet
above sea level. Because of this, the GFS and ECMWF global fields
in particular show Oscar's circulation becoming less compact and
less well defined in about 36 hours. Oscar is forecast to weaken
over Cuba, but it could still be a tropical storm when it emerges
back over the Atlantic and moves across the central Bahamas in 2-3
days. Alternatively, it's also possible the Oscar could
degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate entirely while over
eastern Cuba. If Oscar does survive Cuba, it is likely to be
absorbed by a larger non-tropical area of low pressure over the
western Atlantic, and the new NHC forecast therefore shows
dissipation by day 4.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua
Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and
evening.

3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding
along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 21.1N 73.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 20.8N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0600Z 21.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 23.8N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS OSCAR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST
OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 73.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[Pasmorade]

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Oscar remains a compact hurricane as it nears its next landfall in
the northeastern coast of Cuba. The Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance has been performing another resources permitting
mission, finding that Oscar remains a small hurricane, though the
last several fixes do indicate the eye is a bit larger than
observed yesterday, with a 15-20 mile wide eye. This eye feature is
also being occasionally observed on radar imagery from Guantanamo
Bay. On satellite, Oscar still remains well organized with a small
central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops below -80 C. In
fact, the subjective and objective intensity estimates based on
satellite are quite a bit higher than yesterday at this time. From
the aircraft in-situ data, a blend of the flight level, SFMR, and
dropsonde data still supports a current intensity of 70 kt this
advisory.

Oscar has made its turn to the west-southwest, with the current
estimated motion from recon fixes at 250/7 kt. The narrow mid-level
ridge that was originally north of Oscar has shifted westward while
a weakness develops farther east from a mid-latitude trough, and
that has resulted in the steering over the hurricane shifting more
equatorward, allowing the west-southwestward motion. However, the
trough's weakness will continue to grow and also migrate westward,
and Oscar still seems likely to slow to a crawl after it moves
inland over Cuba. Ultimately Oscar is still expected to reemerge
into the southwestern Atlantic in 36 h and migrate northeastward as
it becomes captured by the deep-layer trough. The NHC track
forecast remains close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids, and is
quite similar to the prior track forecast.

Oscar appears to be holding its own today, and not much change in
intensity is expected before it reaches the northeastern Cuba coast
this afternoon as a hurricane. There is high terrain in eastern Cuba
that is likely to severely disrupt the small inner-core of Oscar
after it moves inland. Some of the global model guidance (especially
the GFS) shows that Oscar could weaken more over than shown here.
Assuming Oscar survives its passage over Cuba, the NHC forecast
shows it emerging back offshore as a tropical storm in 36-48 h.
Environmental conditions will be quite unfavorable for additional
tropical development by that time, with increasing northwesterly
shear and very dry mid-level air. Ultimately Oscar will finally be
absorbed by a larger deep-layer baroclinic trough over the western
Atlantic after 72 h, similar to the prior forecast.


Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas and for a portion of the northeastern coast of Cuba.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the southeastern Bahamas this morning, especially Great Inagua
Island, and along the north shore of Cuba later this afternoon and
evening.

3. Heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of flash flooding
along with possible mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially within the Sierra Maestra, through Wednesday. In
addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the
southeastern Bahamas through Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 20.7N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 74.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN CUBA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 74.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Oscar is very close to making landfall this afternoon along the
northern coast of eastern Cuba. Since the final observations from
the morning Air Force Reconnaissance mission, the hurricane's
structure on satellite imagery and radar out of Guantanamo Bay has
not changed appreciably, with rotating cold convective bands noted
on 1 minute GOES-16 imagery, and the eyewall on radar coming and
going, occasionally open on the western side. Subjective and
objective intensity estimates have not changed much from when the
plane was in the hurricane this morning, so the initial intensity
will remain at 70 kt this advisory.

Oscar has continued a west-southwestward motion, but is slowing down
as it nears the Cuban coast, estimated now at 250/5 kt. The
strongest mid-level ridging is now oriented to the northwest of
Oscar and is helping to steer the small hurricane west-southwestward
into Cuba. However, by tomorrow a digging shortwave trough on the
eastern side of a broader trough across the western Atlantic should
further erode the steering flow north of Oscar, with much of the
track guidance showing the system executing a slow but sharp turn
northward on Monday, ultimately causing the tropical cyclone to
emerge back out over open waters in 24-36 h. How fast Oscar then
accelerates to the northeast could be related to how vertically deep
the circulation is by the early part of this week, with the GFS
showing a shallow Oscar drifting slowly over the central Bahamas,
while the ECMWF keeps a stronger Oscar accelerating northeastward.
The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous
advisory, slightly favoring the ECMWF forecast solution over the GFS
given its better performance with this small tropical cyclone, and
lies not far off the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.

The small inner core of Oscar is likely to be severely disrupted by
the higher terrain of eastern Cuba after it makes landfall, and
weakening after it moves ashore will likely be quick. Some of the
guidance, especially the GFS, suggests that Oscar could weaken more
than shown here in the latest NHC intensity forecast. Once Oscar
re-emerges over the Atlantic Ocean, the forecast environment is not
very favorable for reintensification, with westerly shear increasing
above 30 kt in 36 h and plenty of very dry air waiting to be
imported into the cyclone's core. The NHC forecast does not show any
intensification after it emerges back offshore, and most of the
guidance shows the small cyclone being absorbed by the much larger
baroclinic trough sometime this week, though the timing varies among
the global and hurricane-regional model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of the northern
coast of eastern Cuba where Oscar is expected to make landfall
shortly.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on portions
of the north shore of eastern Cuba this afternoon and evening.

3. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with
mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the
Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be
possible across the southeastern Bahamas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 20.5N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0600Z 21.6N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 23.7N 73.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 25.2N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
550 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...HURRICANE OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA...

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Oscar has made
landfall in the Cuban province of Guantanamo near the city of
Baracoa at 550 PM EDT (2150 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are
near 80 mph (130 km/h) based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter observations. The latest minimum central pressure estimated
from the earlier reconnaissance data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


SUMMARY OF 550 PM EDT...2150 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 74.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ESE OF BARACOA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart/Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...OSCAR BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND STORM
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 74.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES AS SLOW-MOVING OSCAR MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 74.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES




Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Oscar made landfall around 2150 UTC as a 70-kt hurricane near the
city of Baracoa in the Guantanamo province of eastern Cuba. Radar
data from Guantanamo Bay shows Oscar has continued to move slowly
over eastern Cuba tonight, with heavy rainfall spreading across the
region. Oscar's slow motion will enhance the potential for heavy
rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides across
eastern Cuba, particularly near higher terrain. There has been
notable degradation of Oscar's inner core structure in recent radar
and satellite images, which suggests weakening is occurring due to
ongoing land interaction. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt
for this advisory.

Oscar wobbled slightly southward on its final approach to Cuba, but
recent radar data suggest the system has resumed a slow
west-southwestward to westward motion. Oscar should remain over
eastern Cuba or very near the coast during the next 12-24 h.
Thereafter, the flow ahead of a digging shortwave trough over the
southwestern Atlantic is forecast to capture Oscar, which should
result in a northeastward acceleration through midweek. The track
guidance trended faster this cycle, particularly the ECMWF (which
has handled Oscar well) and even the GFS with a shallower vortex
depiction. The NHC track forecast once again shows a faster forward
speed between 36-72 h, generally between the HCCA/TVCN consensus
aids and the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX).

Weakening is expected to continue as the inner core structure of
Oscar is disrupted by the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. The
extent of the weakening that occurs, and whether Oscar remains a
tropical cyclone (TC) once it emerges off the northern coast of
Cuba, is still somewhat uncertain. The ECMWF has been the
best-performing guidance for Oscar and shows it remaining a TC,
while other models including the GFS suggest more significant
weakening and possible degeneration to a surface trough. Even if
Oscar survives, the environmental conditions over the southwestern
Atlantic are expected to become more hostile, with stronger vertical
wind shear and a drier surrounding airmass likely to inhibit much
redevelopment. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one, but shows post-tropical status at 72 h given the shear. If
Oscar survives that long, it should become absorbed by a larger,
non-tropical low pressure system over the western Atlantic by 96 h.

Key Messages:

1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, potentially life-threatening flash flooding along with
mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the
Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be
possible across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue overnight
across portions of eastern Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 20.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 20.4N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0000Z 20.9N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/1200Z 21.9N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 23.4N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 27.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

The center of Oscar has continued to move over eastern Cuba
overnight. Although radar imagery from Guantanamo Bay has shown
a continued degradation of Oscar's inner core, bands of deep
convection with heavy rainfall remain over portions of the island.
A couple of ASCAT passes from earlier in the night showed that
tropical-storm-force winds were occurring along both the southern
and northern coasts of eastern Cuba. Given the decrease in inner
core organization over the past several hours, the initial
wind speed has been lowered perhaps conservatively to 45 kt for
this advisory.

Radar and surface observations from Guantanamo Bay indicate that
the center is located just north of that location. The initial
motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/2 kt. The storm
should begin to turn northwestward and northward later today ahead
of a shortwave trough moving over the northwestern Bahamas. Some
of the dynamical model guidance suggests that the center may
re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today, rather than
the low-level center continuously tracking across the mountainous
terrain of the island. Regardless of the details of the track over
eastern Cuba, Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of
Cuba later today or tonight. Thereafter, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas
and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. In 60-72
hours, global model guidance indicates that the circulation will
become elongated and that it will be absorbed by a larger developing
non-tropical area of low pressure between Bermuda and the
southeastern U.S. coast by day 3. The track guidance is again
faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.

Additional weakening is expected while Oscar moves over eastern
Cuba today. Most of the guidance now keeps Oscar a tropical
cyclone after it emerges off the northern coast of Cuba, but
increasing westerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air
should prevent significant restrengthening before it is absorbed by
a non-tropical area of low pressure.

The primary hazard associated with Oscar will be heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous
terrain of eastern Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides
across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra
Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible
across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across
portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING OVER EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 75.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...OSCAR STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate that
the center of Oscar, although not very easy to locate, is still
moving over eastern Cuba this morning. Radar observations from
Guantanamo Bay show that the inner core of the tropical cyclone has
become severely disrupted. The system has continued to weaken while
interacting with the very mountainous terrain, and the initial wind
speed is estimated to have decreased to near 35 kt, although this
may be generous.

The initial motion is an uncertain 300/3 kt. It is possible that
the center of the system may re-form near the northern coast of
Cuba later today. In any event, Oscar is expected to turn
northward and northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-level
trough over the western Bahamas through tonight. The system
should then accelerate northeastward over portions of
the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the
aforementioned trough. Global model predictions show the
circulation of Oscar becoming absorbed by a larger, developing
non-tropical low pressure area to the west of Bermuda by day 3.
The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is very
close to the dynamical model consensus.

Some additional weakening is expected while Oscar continues
to interact with the land mass of eastern Cuba today, and Oscar
could weaken to a tropical depression before the circulation moves
over water. Thereafter, the system will be contending with
increasing westerly vertical wind shear and drier air. Therefore
only slight restrengthening is anticipated within the next
day or so, followed by little change in strength before Oscar
becomes absorbed by the non-tropical low pressure system.

The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the
mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Preliminary reports in the
Province of Guantanamo in eastern Cuba already indicate more than
10 inches of rain have fallen in spots.


Key Messages:

1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides
across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra
Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible
across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across
portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 20.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Delgado

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 75.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

...CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 76.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Although the circulation of Oscar is rather broad, visible
satellite images show that the center is nearing the northern coast
of eastern Cuba. Deep convection associated with the system has
diminished during the day, at least partially due to a diurnal
fluctuation. The intensity is kept, perhaps generously, at 35 kt
for this advisory. Surface synoptic observations and earlier
scatterometer data indicate that the strongest winds are over the
eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and no tropical-storm-force
wind radii are shown to the northwest or southwest of the center
for this advisory.

Oscar been turning fairly sharply to the right while the system
executes a hairpin turn over eastern Cuba. The current motion
estimate is around 330/6 kt. The tropical cyclone is expected to
turn northward and northeastward with some increase in forward
speed while it moves on the southeastern and eastern side of a
mid-level trough. Since the system has moved a little farther west
than previously estimated, the overall official track forecast has
been shifted slightly west of the previous one. This is a blend of
the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions.

The tropical cyclone should move back over water soon, so some
restrengthening is possible during the next day or two. However,
Oscar will be moving into an area of strong upper-level winds over
the next couple of days which should impart significant westerly
shear over the system. Also, the cyclone is expected to remain in
a relatively dry air mass to the north of the Greater Antilles.
Thus, only slight restrengthening seems possible. The official
intensity forecast is above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.
In 2 to 3 days, the global models show the system being absorbed by
a non-tropical low pressure system to the west of Bermuda.

The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the
mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Over the last 24 hours, a
rainfall total of nearly 15 inches was reported at Punta de Maisi
on the eastern tip of Cuba.


Key Messages:

1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of
significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides
across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra
Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible
across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into this
evening across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions
are also expected in portions of the southeastern and central
Bahamas tonight and Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 21.0N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Delgado

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024

The center of Oscar has emerged off the northern coast of eastern
Cuba, but the system is struggling to maintain its identity as a
tropical cyclone. The limited convection noted in recent satellite
images is displaced over 100 n mi to the east of the center, likely
the result of increasing westerly shear and significant intrusions
of dry air. Also, satellite images suggest the center could be
somewhat elongated compared to earlier today. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters sampled the wind field tonight and recently
reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in clear air to the
east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory.

Oscar has made its anticipated turn and is now moving toward the
north-northeast (015/7 kt). A mid-level trough over the southwestern
Atlantic is expected to steer Oscar northeastward at a faster speed
during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, Oscar should be
absorbed by a larger, non-tropical area of low pressure that is
forecast to develop over the western Atlantic. There were no
notable changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the NHC track
prediction remains similar to the previous one.

Based on satellite trends tonight, it seems more unlikely that Oscar
will be able to restrengthen given the continued bouts of dry air
and stronger shear expected over the next couple of days. As a
result, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Oscar degenerating
to a post-tropical low in 24 h, although this could occur even
sooner if convection does not redevelop during the upcoming
convective maximum period. There is still a threat of additional
rainfall producing flash flooding across portions of eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday.


Key Messages:

1. Through Tuesday, additional periods of heavy rainfall may lead to
flash flooding and mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba,
especially in areas of steep terrain. In addition, localized flash
flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas overnight and Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart