ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[Kazmit]

What? An invest to a hurricane in the same day? Every time I take an eye off the tropics for a couple days something crazy happens.

[galaxy401]

Anyone who just woke up is going to be so confused looking at the NHC page or this thread.

[Pasmorade]

HY-2C scatterometer at 0852Z had at least one 35 kt wind, along with evidence of an LLC. This one has no future. It will soon be butting up against a wall of SW-NE wind shear that reaches the central Bahamas. Small systems like this can strengthen quickly and weaken quickly. I was debating whether it would shoot off to the NE when it tracks a bit farther west of if the moisture would shoot off NE and the weak low-level swirl continue to eastern Cuba. I'm leaning more toward the second scenario.

Historic. In just three hours, this aged like milk...

[galaxy401]

HY-2C scatterometer at 0852Z had at least one 35 kt wind, along with evidence of an LLC. This one has no future. It will soon be butting up against a wall of SW-NE wind shear that reaches the central Bahamas. Small systems like this can strengthen quickly and weaken quickly. I was debating whether it would shoot off to the NE when it tracks a bit farther west of if the moisture would shoot off NE and the weak low-level swirl continue to eastern Cuba. I'm leaning more toward the second scenario.

Historic. In just three hours, this aged like milk...

In fairness, he did say that small systems strengthen quickly so he did point that out.

[Jelmergraaff]

Isn't this the quickest intensification from a tropical depression (or invest) into a hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin?

[HurricaneRyan]

My Kate 1985 comparison feeling more real by the minute

[cycloneye]

Isn't this the quickest intensification from a tropical depression (or invest) into a hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin?

Even more. From 10% at friday mornings TWO to hurricane 24 hours later.

[galaxy401]

Isn't this the quickest intensification from a tropical depression (or invest) into a hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin?

It could be but Oscar will have it's genesis pushed much earlier (12-18 hours earlier) once the TCR report comes out. It's been a tropical storm for some time now.

[Teban54]

Isn't this the quickest intensification from a tropical depression (or invest) into a hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin?

The record from TD to hurricane is 12 hours, set by Harvey 1981.

Operationally, Oscar shattered the record by becoming a hurricane 3 hours after it was officially declared a TC. Of course, I expect genesis to be moved up significantly in the TCR, so this record probably won't last.

[Jelmergraaff]

Isn't this the quickest intensification from a tropical depression (or invest) into a hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin?

It could be but Oscar will have it's genesis pushed much earlier (12-18 hours earlier) once the TCR report comes out. It's been a tropical storm for some time now.

From what I've read here though, the NHC is usually also quite conservative with adjusting operational values in the post-season analysis. Is it common for them to push back the genesis time that much in the TCR?

[Category5Kaiju]

I went to the gym to do your typical weekend exercise. Saw that Oscar had been designated. I finished showering. Saw that Oscar is now a hurricane.

Yup.

[USTropics]

Plane is now flying at 700 mb, so the 76 kt flight level wind it just found supports 65-70 kt, only slightly below SFMR now.

While SFMR isn't being used operationally this year by the NHC while they work on the calibration issues, some students here at FSU with Dr. Bourassa's research group have been validating the data and it's good up to 80 mph (so if it's not rain contaminated, that is a reliable SFMR value).

[wx98]

Well this one caught everyone off guard…

[HurricaneBelle]

I went to the gym to do your typical weekend exercise. Saw that Oscar had been designated. I finished showering. Saw that Oscar is now a hurricane.

Yup.

Oscar out-exercised you

[zzzh]

G. E15/8/5

It seems like there is something wrong with it's internal structure. It will take some time to organize that.

[Jr0d]

https://i.ibb.co/FV158LZ/goes16-vis-swir-94-L-202410190212.gif

Also, ASCAT is doing what it does best, missing the system yet again

https://i.ibb.co/ctG83pq/ascat-94-L-202410190130.png

On the post season analysis, they will have to move up genesis to at least Friday night, perhaps earlier.

When I saw the satellite last night that had every hallmark of a tropical storm, I couldn't believe it was still the yellow lemon.

At least it will likely be short lived and by Monday should be completely sheared apart. If the remnant low level swirl goes SW or north is still uncertain.

[Nuno]

Well this one caught everyone off guard…

I mean, did it? I posted this could've been classified as a TS yesterday. It is unfortunate the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas had little warning when we saw such improved signs of organization out of the San Juan radar. What is the public safety benefit to not upgrading earlier?

[wx98]

Not much future for this wave. Looks like it could have been classified as a depression for the past 2-3 days, but it will be moving into a less favorable environment once it passes north of the DR this weekend. Hopefully, there will be no more storms this season (and I'll win the office contest).

Three days later there’s 2 storms, one of which is a hurricane…

[AJC3]

https://i.ibb.co/FV158LZ/goes16-vis-swir-94-L-202410190212.gif

Also, ASCAT is doing what it does best, missing the system yet again

https://i.ibb.co/ctG83pq/ascat-94-L-202410190130.png

On the post season analysis, they will have to move up genesis to at least Friday night, perhaps earlier.

<snip>

00Z-06Z seems pretty solid, but probably not any earlier that. Even with the tiny size, the 1630Z OSCAT-3 pass clearly shows an open wave with AOA 10kt NE/SE winds about the axis extending all the way down to PR/VI.

Shame we couldn't get any more timely passes.

[Teban54]

Not much future for this wave. Looks like it could have been classified as a depression for the past 2-3 days, but it will be moving into a less favorable environment once it passes north of the DR this weekend. Hopefully, there will be no more storms this season (and I'll win the office contest).

Three days later there’s 2 storms, one of which is a hurricane…

And the other (Nadine) could have easily been a hurricane if it had 6-12 more hours over water.