Texas Fall 2024

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Now this is how texas fall weather should be like! Feels so pleasant ! Not looking forward to the disgusting warmth returning

Climate change is a big factor. Trough out west is better for yall in winter, but further east, it isn't good if you like winter weather. We have to hope for a week or two of enough cold and moisture. From what I've read off of other weather forums, it will come down to the pacific and if it can be favorable for cold at some point

[Stratton23]

Im hearing some chatter on X on how the western or central pacific could produce a typhoon that could recurve and drastically alter the upper air pattern over north america in the long term

[CaptinCrunch]

This morning was the coolest so far this Fall, slept with windows open and I actually got chilly. Enjoy this Fall like weather now, as it will warm up again next week. Hopefully by first week of November we see a permeant change over to Fall or just go right into Winter.

[Stratton23]

The GFS continues to advertise a decently strong front arriving just before halloween , fingers crossed!

[Brent]

Met here just posted about a cold end of October

[Stratton23]

Euro AIFS opens the cold air flood gate into the US just before halloween, typhoon recurve in the pacific causes a huge change in the configuration of the jet stream pattern over NA

[weatherdude1108]

Well, this looks more interesting for a change in the model scenery right before Halloween! Would be interesting if we had a Halloween flood in the hill country. I'm not able to post the image directly for some reason like in the past, so here is the URL anyway.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024101712/gfs_ref_frzn_scus_52.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024101712/gfs_ref_frzn_scus_53.png

[Stratton23]

Im leaning more towards a colder halloween , im seeing enough evidence in the GFS/ Euro AIFS and GEFS that the current zonal flow jet stream pattern is going to eventually buckle due to typoon activity in the western pacific, Its a complicated process, but im now at least 60% confident that we arent going to have a super warm halloween

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Im leaning more towards a colder halloween , im seeing enough evidence in the GFS/ Euro AIFS and GEFS that the current zonal flow jet stream pattern is going to eventually buckle due to typoon activity in the western pacific, Its a complicated process, but im now at least 60% confident that we arent going to have a super warm halloween

Sometimes the fall pattern can give hints on the winter pattern. A poleward aleutian ridge would help with cold air down here

[Stratton23]

18z Euro AIFS continues to advertise a pretty chilly halloween, ifs been very consistent with this, will be interesting to see how well this model does with cold air masses and winter in general

[weatherdude1108]

I heard something outside while working inside. I looked back towards kitchen back patio, and the gazebo had drops on it!

It's SPRINKLING here!!!

0.02" at my abode (unless I get more later), which breaks the 40+-day consecutive dry streak here at my house.

I glanced at the observations for Camp Mabry. I saw they recorded at least 0.01" in the last hour, which I think is technically enough to break the dry streak and start over(?). Hope so!

Nice change to normal from the crap we have had for a month.lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Little change to our weather pattern is expected through early next week, allowing our slow warming trend to continue. On Monday, the cutoff low over the Four Corners Region will be pulled to the northeast before transitioning to an open wave as it moves into the Upper Midwest. Unfortunately, this transition will allow upper level ridging to become increasingly pronounced across North and Central Texas, resulting in another rise in temperatures. High temperatures will return to the mid 80s to low 90s areawide Tuesday through Thursday - approximately 10-20 degrees above normal for late October.

From mid-week onward, ensemble guidance is fairly evenly split between either keeping us in a warm/dry regime or transitioning to a cooler and perhaps more active pattern. For now, have opted not to stray from the NBM, which advertises a continuation of warm and rain-free weather, given the lack of confidence in either solution.

[starsfan65]

Little change to our weather pattern is expected through early next week, allowing our slow warming trend to continue. On Monday, the cutoff low over the Four Corners Region will be pulled to the northeast before transitioning to an open wave as it moves into the Upper Midwest. Unfortunately, this transition will allow upper level ridging to become increasingly pronounced across North and Central Texas, resulting in another rise in temperatures. High temperatures will return to the mid 80s to low 90s areawide Tuesday through Thursday - approximately 10-20 degrees above normal for late October.

From mid-week onward, ensemble guidance is fairly evenly split between either keeping us in a warm/dry regime or transitioning to a cooler and perhaps more active pattern. For now, have opted not to stray from the NBM, which advertises a continuation of warm and rain-free weather, given the lack of confidence in either solution.

Warm and Dry weather , go away please!!!!!!

[Stratton23]

Man the Euro AIFS is not relenting in its idea for a pretty chilly halloween, guess we are gonna find out how good this model is for pattern recognition compared to other guidance

[Brent]

So far our predictions are for a normal(70s) yet again dry Halloween.. well see how that goes

[snownado]

As things stand now, October is on track for the warmest on record for DFW...

Also, crazy as it might be, DFW may have a legit shot at finishing the month with no precip (obviously also being the driest on record).

[JDawg512]

Welcome to the climate shift. I don't even bother to look at historical averages at this point because they are useledd. Things are only going to get worse in the coming years. Had some rain fall yesterday at the rain cave but not enough to do any good. EWX says 2% chance of rain in the long term. Fire weather will increase rapidly as we head into winter.

[Stratton23]

Euro AIFS continues to advertise an arctic blast just after halloween lol

[nlosrgr8]

Y’all know Texas is a big state, and I don’t know where y’all live or what parts of Texas y’all are talking’ ‘bout. (Pretty sure ya aren’t talking’ West Tx…) Just saying.

[fendie]

Euro AIFS temps Sunday 11/3 at 6 am