ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[underthwx]

Huh???? Leave for a day 10% to 90%
Leave a couple more hours it's a hurricane

Yeah...no doubt Scott....I did not expect a hurricane....mother nature offers us a surprise.....

[weeniepatrol]

[cycloneye]

From the first sentence of 5 PM discussion:

It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar.

[aspen]

Great discussion this advisory.

[zzzh]

Another burst from northern eyewall trying to wrap around. We'll see if it can fight off that shear.

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

Reading that discussion makes me think that Oscar has been a TC longer, and may have been a strong tropical storm as early as overnight. The TCR will be interesting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wasn’t this a scrappy 20% invest just yesterday??

[zhukm29]

Really shows the value of recon data - here is the ASCAT pass from this morning, which shows Oscar as a weak TS. In reality, it was a 85mph hurricane.

[floridasun]

could this move more and forecast or done deal will move sw and move ne by tues?

[tolakram]

could this move more and forecast or done deal will move sw and move ne by tues?

There's a front that should rip it apart, but it could move south into Cuba or north / northeast and cause issues in either direction. Very hard to predict, but it seems fair to say this is no threat to the US at this time.

[Hammy]

Reading that discussion makes me think that Oscar has been a TC longer, and may have been a strong tropical storm as early as overnight. The TCR will be interesting.

Looking at a loop of the San Juan radar seems like the LLC formed around 18z yesterday if not earlier

[Sciencerocks]

https://i.imgur.com/Mt3Qb4u.gif

least at the mid level this is a good bit more organized. We will see who get nadine.

This is yesterday. I'd argue that it has been a tropical storm since probably around 11am est 10/18. Of course, I also believe that this was a depression and possibly a tropical storm a couple of times on its long journey since moving off Africa. The fact that this is unexpected to the nhc is kind of a funny thing. lol

[GCANE]

Another unexpected strengthening.
Hmm, I wonder what caused that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Another unexpected strengthening.
Hmm, I wonder what caused that.

A locally favorable environment ahead of a trough assisting in ventilation?

[Pasmorade]

Another unexpected strengthening.
Hmm, I wonder what caused that.

Probably the fact that the NHC snoozed on this and Nadine. As early as yesterday afternoon, Oscar was featuring hot towers and a tight circulation, while the NHC was stating that it had 10% odds. Hell, if not for the recon mission, the NHC would have been more hesitant in upgrading it.

[GCANE]

For Oscar to survive, he will have to cross the Windward Passage into the Carib.
If he follows this path, he will be under a small anticyclone.
If and once he gets in the Carib, a large anticyclone will be present and further strengthening is likely.
Of course, this is just speculation at this time and models aren't showing this scenario.
But heck, how good are the models?

[GCANE]

Currently 10 knts shear.
No 355K PVS Inhibition.
Current steering does show a possible track through the Windward Passage.

[GCANE]

Recon did measure about 65 mm/hr rain rate.
Strong enough for further strengthening.

[WeatherBoy2000]

For Oscar to survive, he will have to cross the Windward Passage into the Carib.
If he follows this path, he will be under a small anticyclone.
If and once he gets in the Carib, a large anticyclone will be present and further strengthening is likely.
Of course, this is just speculation at this time and models aren't showing this scenario.
But heck, how good are the models?

It would really have to thread the needle imo, something like what's shown on the gfs could happen and its small circulation just gets obliterated by Cuba.