ATL: OSCAR - Models

[caneman]

12z Ecmwf is north that Wsw dive is nonsense in October lol let alone anytime of the year

94L will curve north way before Florida and I haven’t come across any storms that hit Florida from the east in October.

Using just climatology alone isn't wise at all. Past performance in a realitivity short period of time isn't proof of future performance..

[blp]

12z is diving it SW into Cuba.

[floridasun]

none runs bring it toward usa could go nw Caribbean and go into central America the islands need watch it or go out sea east bahamas maybe get close bermuda before going out to sea

[tolakram]

I just don't understand how the Icon can have that solution. I suppose it could flare up just before running under the cold front and getting sheared off?

[floridasun]

front suppose bring cool weather by end week to Florida move past south fl but forecast to move Noth as warm front on weekend

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS has this hit Bermuda from the south on Wednesday, stall, then hit from the north on Friday

[chaser1]

front suppose bring cool weather by end week to Florida move past south fl but forecast to move Noth as warm front on weekend

Just one night of cool temps in the upper 50's for me but I'll gladly take it

[cycloneye]

The last 3 runs of the Bams have them closer to PR and over RD and Haiti.

[chaser1]

The last 3 runs of the Bams have them closer to PR and over RD and Haiti.

https://i.imgur.com/DSZWJXB.jpeg

Pretty tight clustering for the BAMS, especially this far out. Typically there's a good deal more spread between the Shallow and the Upper level

[Hurricane2022]

The last 3 runs of the Bams have them closer to PR and over RD and Haiti.

https://i.imgur.com/DSZWJXB.jpeg

Pretty tight clustering for the BAMS, especially this far out. Typically there's a good deal more spread between the Shallow and the Upper level

Welcome to the FUTURE (I guess )

[floridasun]

high to north pull it too south that why you see that track

[Nimbus]

high to north pull it too south that why you see that track

Looks like the GA will still be in the cone, strong ridging has the current models initializing 94L further south ~16N instead of 17N.

[chris_fit]

12Z ICON is interesting....

[Buck]

12Z ICON is interesting....

https://i.imgur.com/0sHcNX4.gif

Looks sentient... purposely dodging land as much as it can!

[ChrisH-UK]

12Z ICON is interesting....

https://i.imgur.com/0sHcNX4.gif

The HAFS-B shows the same in its parent, it actually loses it but in the corner of the run you can see it south of Cuba.

In the top left corner

[Stormlover70]

High pressure should protect the conus.

[Hurricane2022]

[mantis83]

High pressure should protect the conus.

yup, force field in full effect.....

[cycloneye]

In my view, the Euro was the best mantaining this system and having it stronger than the other models.

[ChrisH-UK]

HAFS-B latest model run has Oscar as a Cat 5 Hurricane hitting Cuba. It thinks they will be a lack of shear and with the hots waters would make perfect conditions for Oscar to rapidly intensify.