2024 Cyclone Retirements (Breaking ATLC: Beryl, Helene, Milton; EPAC: John)

[Category5Kaiju]

In a way, I'd also argue that the three storms most likely to be retired each highlighted a certain, destructive side effect of hurricanes that go beyond the usual images of storm surge and powerful winds.

For Beryl, at least in the CONUS, it became memorable for knocking out power around Houston. I believe quite a few deaths were attributed to the power outage situation.

For Helene, the inland floods in Appalachia became the main story. I mean, the amount of damage that this storm did miles inland and how it ended up becoming the deadliest hurricane to strike CONUS soil since Katrina despite making landfall in a rather sparsely populated coastal region, was phenomenal.

For Milton, the tornado outbreak it caused became a memorable story. Some of the tornadoes it spawned looked like ones that are regularly seen in places like Oklahoma and Kansas. In fact, I believe that a decent fraction of the storm's total estimated damages are attributed to the tornadoes themselves.

Beyond the raw damage/deaths criteria that the WMO uses to retire storm names, I believe those unique factors may play a subtle but key role in the memorability aspect of these three storms, which would make an even stronger case for retirement than other bad hurricanes per se.

[wwizard]

In a way, I'd also argue that the three storms most likely to be retired each highlighted a certain, destructive side effect of hurricanes that go beyond the usual images of storm surge and powerful winds.

For Beryl, at least in the CONUS, it became memorable for knocking out power around Houston. I believe quite a few deaths were attributed to the power outage situation.

For Helene, the inland floods in Appalachia became the main story. I mean, the amount of damage that this storm did miles inland and how it ended up becoming the deadliest hurricane to strike CONUS soil since Katrina despite making landfall in a rather sparsely populated coastal region, was phenomenal.

For Milton, the tornado outbreak it caused became a memorable story. Some of the tornadoes it spawned looked like ones that are regularly seen in places like Oklahoma and Kansas. In fact, I believe that a decent fraction of the storm's total estimated damages are attributed to the tornadoes themselves.

Beyond the raw damage/deaths criteria that the WMO uses to retire storm names, I believe those unique factors may play a subtle but key role in the memorability aspect of these three storms, which would make an even stronger case for retirement than other bad hurricanes per se.

Beryl was more than just power being knocked out. The trees it knocked down and the destruction that caused was incredible. Especially for a storm that was at TS strength as it got to Houston. Huge trees uprooted or snapped in two that you'd think it would have taken a cat 4 to do. Yes, I'm aware that gusts can be a category or 2 higher, but I do not remember it being that bad for Ike. Power was out longer for Ike but I don't remember that kind of tree damage.

Maybe the tree thing has more to do with something else (too much rain, not enough rain, bad tree health, something) because the derecho we had about a month prior did some pretty decent damage as well. So much so that I told family and friends that we weren't ready for a hurricane, and sure enough, we weren't.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with Bethany, Heather and Maurice for the replacement names.

Milton would be the first double-retirement on this list should it get the axe (which is likely). Beryl is also likely, Helene is certain.

[HurricaneRyan]

Oscar is ramping up quick. Will be interesting to see how it plays out. Cuba and Haiti aren't out of the woods here and I've been getting Kate 1985 vibes from him.

[GSBHurricane]

I have some ideas for replacements:
Beryl -> Bernadette, Beth, or Brenda
Debby -> Darlene, Dawn, or Denise
Helene -> Heather, Heidi, or Holly
Milton -> Mark, Mickey, or Miguel

[GSBHurricane]

Also I think the Philippines may request up to four names this year: Ewiniar, Gaemi, Yagi, and Krathon.

[Teban54]

I have some ideas for replacements:
Beryl -> Bernadette, Beth, or Brenda
Debby -> Darlene, Dawn, or Denise
Helene -> Heather, Heidi, or Holly
Milton -> Mark, Mickey, or Miguel

Debby's chance at retirement was already low before, but now it's virtually zero as the states ithat were affected by it also experienced much worse impacts from Helene and/or Milton.

[HurricaneRyan]

I have some ideas for replacements:
Beryl -> Bernadette, Beth, or Brenda
Debby -> Darlene, Dawn, or Denise
Helene -> Heather, Heidi, or Holly
Milton -> Mark, Mickey, or Miguel

Debby's chance at retirement was already low before, but now it's virtually zero as the states ithat were affected by it also experienced much worse impacts from Helene and/or Milton.

Except Debby's best chance at retirement is from Canada, not the US

[GSBHurricane]

I have some ideas for replacements:
Beryl -> Bernadette, Beth, or Brenda
Debby -> Darlene, Dawn, or Denise
Helene -> Heather, Heidi, or Holly
Milton -> Mark, Mickey, or Miguel

Debby's chance at retirement was already low before, but now it's virtually zero as the states ithat were affected by it also experienced much worse impacts from Helene and/or Milton.

Debby, or rather its remnants, caused $1.8 billion in damage to Quebec, making it the costliest disaster in the province's history, surpassing the 1998 ice storm. Canada will probably request it.

[aaaaaa]

Maybe hurricane Oscar if cuba is not prepared with their black out crisis

[Ptarmigan]

I have some ideas for replacements:
Beryl -> Bernadette, Beth, or Brenda
Debby -> Darlene, Dawn, or Denise
Helene -> Heather, Heidi, or Holly
Milton -> Mark, Mickey, or Miguel

Beryl, Helene, and Milton are most likely to be retired. Not likely for Debby.

[GSBHurricane]

I have some ideas for replacements:
Beryl -> Bernadette, Beth, or Brenda
Debby -> Darlene, Dawn, or Denise
Helene -> Heather, Heidi, or Holly
Milton -> Mark, Mickey, or Miguel

Beryl, Helene, and Milton are most likely to be retired. Not likely for Debby.

Again, Debby’s remnants caused $1.8 billion in damage to Quebec, surpassing the 1998 ice storm as Quebec’s costliest natural disaster. I’m surprised people in general are rather dismissive of Debby’s chances of retirement.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have some ideas for replacements:
Beryl -> Bernadette, Beth, or Brenda
Debby -> Darlene, Dawn, or Denise
Helene -> Heather, Heidi, or Holly
Milton -> Mark, Mickey, or Miguel

Beryl, Helene, and Milton are most likely to be retired. Not likely for Debby.

Again, Debby’s remnants caused $1.8 billion in damage to Quebec, surpassing the 1998 ice storm as Quebec’s costliest natural disaster. I’m surprised people in general are rather dismissive of Debby’s chances of retirement.

It's a bit difficult to put into words, so I'll try my best here. I guess it really comes down to, "how closely do people in the general public associate the damages to the hurricane named "Debby"". It's one thing if people generally associate the damages with simply what would be described as a bad storm. It's another thing to say "DEBBY" did this.

[GSBHurricane]

Beryl, Helene, and Milton are most likely to be retired. Not likely for Debby.

Again, Debby’s remnants caused $1.8 billion in damage to Quebec, surpassing the 1998 ice storm as Quebec’s costliest natural disaster. I’m surprised people in general are rather dismissive of Debby’s chances of retirement.

It's a bit difficult to put into words, so I'll try my best here. I guess it really comes down to, "how closely do people in the general public associate the damages to the hurricane named "Debby"". It's one thing if people generally associate the damages with simply what would be described as a bad storm. It's another thing to say "DEBBY" did this.

It’ll come down to what the Canadian Meteorological Centre wants to do. While it’s not a guarantee for the reasons you mentioned (although whether or not the public of Quebec associates the destruction with Debby is a different story) I’d say there’s a decent chance that they request Debby’s retirement.

[Teban54]

Beryl, Helene, and Milton are most likely to be retired. Not likely for Debby.

Again, Debby’s remnants caused $1.8 billion in damage to Quebec, surpassing the 1998 ice storm as Quebec’s costliest natural disaster. I’m surprised people in general are rather dismissive of Debby’s chances of retirement.

It's a bit difficult to put into words, so I'll try my best here. I guess it really comes down to, "how closely do people in the general public associate the damages to the hurricane named "Debby"". It's one thing if people generally associate the damages with simply what would be described as a bad storm. It's another thing to say "DEBBY" did this.

One example of this is Dora in the EPAC last year. While there didn't seem to be any concrete evidence that Dora caused the Hawaiian wildfires (and one of the NHC mets believed it didn't), there were enough people and media coverage who believed in this Causal effect for the US to request its retirement.

Lee 2011 is a counter-example: its remnants did billions in damage (less common at that time than it is now), but the damage was largely now known as from Lee in the media.

[GSBHurricane]

Again, Debby’s remnants caused $1.8 billion in damage to Quebec, surpassing the 1998 ice storm as Quebec’s costliest natural disaster. I’m surprised people in general are rather dismissive of Debby’s chances of retirement.

It's a bit difficult to put into words, so I'll try my best here. I guess it really comes down to, "how closely do people in the general public associate the damages to the hurricane named "Debby"". It's one thing if people generally associate the damages with simply what would be described as a bad storm. It's another thing to say "DEBBY" did this.

One example of this is Dora in the EPAC last year. While there didn't seem to be any concrete evidence that Dora caused the Hawaiian wildfires (and one of the NHC mets believed it didn't), there were enough people and media coverage who believed in this Causal effect for the US to request its retirement.

Lee 2011 is a counter-example: its remnants did billions in damage (less common at that time than it is now), but the damage was largely now known as from Lee in the media.

Keep in mind that $2 billion in the USA (even in 2011) is not the same as $2 billion in Canada. For reference, the former costliest tropical cyclone to hit the country not adjusted for inflation was Fiona and that cost $590 million in damage. Adjusted for inflation I think it was Hazel at over $1 billion which is a much bigger deal in Canada than the USA.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it a bit too early to speculate that we may need a new female P name for List 4? Because some recent model runs have really shed light on a scary system forming in the WCAR....

[Hurricane2022]

Is it a bit too early to speculate that we may need a new female P name for List 4? Because some recent model runs have really shed light on a scary system forming in the WCAR....

Paige, Penelope, Perlla, Padma....
Patty doesn't feel a good name for a Hurricane. I wouldn't feel threatened by a C4 Hurricane "Patty" or "Patsy" tbh .

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it a bit too early to speculate that we may need a new female P name for List 4? Because some recent model runs have really shed light on a scary system forming in the WCAR....

Paige, Penelope, Perlla, Padma....
Patty doesn't feel a good name for a Hurricane. I wouldn't feel threatened by a C4 Hurricane "Patty" or "Patsy" tbh .

My personal favorites are Paige and Phoebe. In fact, it's funny as some years ago (back when I was a newbie on Storm2k), I actually made a post about least favorite hurricane names, and I said that Patty was up there as it didn't seem threatening enough and reminded me of burgers more than anything else. Of course, just because a hurricane has a "weak" name ABSOLUTELY does not mean it cannot inflict damage and devastation.

[CycloneSakura]

I generally think the WPAC could see 4, MAYBE 5 retirements this year: Gaemi, Yagi, Shanshan, Ewiniar with the possibility of Krathon making it

Gaemi and Yagi are the obvious two
Shanshan caused $6 billion in damages in Japan, mostly in Kyushu
Ewiniar's PAGASA name is getting retired