ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Whoa I check this yesterday and it's an invest and now it's a hurricane

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like it is being impacted by north-northwesterly shear as in being undercutted by frontal zone....I seriously doubt it will become a cat5!

[TomballEd]

Euro ensembles for the win from over a week ago, except it didn't quite hit the Greater Antilles.

Nadine- GFS ensembles for the win except a week late.

[Hurricane2022]

...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL OSCAR MOVING VERY NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 71.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[AJC3]

https://i.imgur.com/Mt3Qb4u.gif

least at the mid level this is a good bit more organized. We will see who get nadine.

This is yesterday. I'd argue that it has been a tropical storm since probably around 11am est 10/18. Of course, I also believe that this was a depression and possibly a tropical storm a couple of times on its long journey since moving off Africa. The fact that this is unexpected to the nhc is kind of a funny thing. lol

Extremely doubtful. In this case, ASCAT/OSCAT wouldn't show an easterly component to the wind AOA 10kt all the way down to the islands of the GA (as OSCAT did at 18/1630 UTC) if Oscar had a closed LLCC, even as small of a circulation as Oscar has. Given that the 19/1500UTC ASCAT pass barely closed a center off, based on the small size you could reasonably argue it was closed some hours earlier than that, but not nearly a day earlier. The earliest this storm would be BT'd as a tropical cyclone is 19/00Z (8PM FRI), but if I were a betting man, I'd go with no earlier than 19/06Z. There's just not enough evidence to the contrary.

[Hurricane Mike]

11:35pm Video on Oscar
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZsW5TSpvZo

[HurricaneRyan]

https://i.imgur.com/qorG9gf.gif

Looks like it is being impacted by north-northwesterly shear as in being undercutted by frontal zone....I seriously doubt it will become a cat5!

People in here were expecting a Cat 5? I figured a Cat 3 at best, given my Kate 1985 comparison

[Hurricanehink]

Not sure if anyone mentioned yet, but Cuba is having nationwide power outages. I really hope Oscar weakens. That would suck to not have power, and not know about a storm coming, like it's the 1700s or something.

[abajan]

Anyone who just woke up is going to be so confused looking at the NHC page or this thread.

That's why it's so important to never sleep a wink during hurricane season. Coffee anyone?

Anyway, it appears Tornado Oscar has peaked at 85 mph.
(Like many of us, I'd expected it to reach at least Cat 2.)

All jokes aside, I pray our friends in the Turks & Caicos are okay and that those in the Bahamas and Cuba are well prepared.

[cheezyWXguy]

Thought the model runs that showed Oscar blowing up into a major were overdone, but now not so much. Looks to be intensifying again

[GCANE]

Nicely structured warm core with a cold pool below it

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[GCANE]

Satellite radar estimates have been consistently south of forecast track.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... /track.png

Recon is currently heading in.

[ChrisH-UK]

Oscar, just of the coast Great Inagua.

[xironman]

Interesting to see the direction and speed. If it gets much south of Cuba the steering currents are strongly west.

[GCANE]

VDM
Eye circular 13nm diameter, open to the south
20.83N 73.48W
987mb

[GCANE]

About 10 miles south of forecast track

[Michele B]

Interesting to see the direction and speed. If it gets much south of Cuba the steering currents are strongly west.

https://i.imgur.com/GGmyqv4.gif

I don’t see how it takes a sharp north-easterly turn with those air currents.

[AJC3]

It still looks solid this morning. Dropping a little south of due west is helping it stay out of the strong shear just to its north. Because of this, obviously it's not yet entraining the stable air along it's W-NW flank into its small core, or else it would be rapidly spinning down. Thus far, Oscar has been a tenacious little late season system.

[GCANE]

Eye now closed, 16nm diameter.

[xironman]

Interesting to see the direction and speed. If it gets much south of Cuba the steering currents are strongly west.

https://i.imgur.com/GGmyqv4.gif

I don’t see how it takes a sharp north-easterly turn with those air currents.

A sharp trough will dig down into the Bahamas in 24 hrs and grab it. If for some reason it got too far west it would miss the trough. I think that is why some of the GEFS and GEPS tracks take it into the Yucatan.