ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Hope everyone in Cuba makes it safely through this. I'm very glad it's heading out to sea after Cuba. The USA has had enough storms this year.

[sponger]

I wish we had recon in there. This thing looks impressive right now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=16L&product=ir

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=16L&product=vis

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd peg Oscar around 80 knots purely looking at satellite. A lot of convection firing around the eyewall right now.

[GCANE]

Looks like its a TS.
IMHO, I expect moderate strengthening around midday and running thru the rest of the daylight hours

Right on queue.
Very rapidly spinning eyewall hot-towers

[WaveBreaking]

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

Could this turn into a potential big crisis in Cuba? They have power blackouts and it looks like Oscar is going to be parked in Eastern Cuba for the next 36 hours. It's not a big storm but the rainfall could be high.

[Travorum]

From the 5pm NHC discussion:

Since the final observations from
the morning Air Force Reconnaissance mission, the hurricane's
structure on satellite imagery and radar out of Guantanamo Bay has
not changed appreciably, with rotating cold convective bands noted
on 1 minute GOES-16 imagery, and the eyewall on radar coming and
going, occasionally open on the western side. Subjective and
objective intensity estimates have not changed much from when the
plane was in the hurricane this morning, so the initial intensity
will remain at 70 kt this advisory.

I would personally disagree with the bolded statement, but with no recon and likely very few surface observations due to the current power grid issues in Cuba I think this is going to remain as one of those what-ifs. I don't see much hope for a bump in the TCR either given the lack of support from satellite intensity estimates (Kirk at least had Dvorak support). Hopefully people in eastern Cuba are aware and prepared for a potentially stronger Oscar given the power outages.

[Teban54]

70 kt when it's clearing out the eye...

[GCANE]

Intensification phase is ending.
Will likely rain out over eastern Cuba

[Travorum]

Landfall at 5:50pm EST

Hurricane Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024
550 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...HURRICANE OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA...

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Oscar has made
landfall in the Cuban province of Guantanamo near the city of
Baracoa at 550 PM EDT (2150 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are
near 80 mph (130 km/h) based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter observations. The latest minimum central pressure estimated
from the earlier reconnaissance data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


SUMMARY OF 550 PM EDT...2150 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 74.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ESE OF BARACOA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart/Papin

[Nuno]

This is looks to be moving more SSW.

[Nimbus]

The north shore coastal community of Baracoa is taking a hit, and if it rains itself out in that area it could be quite disastrous locally.

[cycloneye]

Since Matthew 2016, landfall there.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1848120533138727197

[Travorum]

Successive SSMIS passes caught microwave imagery about 1 hour prior to and 1 hour post landfall (landfall was at 21:50z)

[cycloneye]

Very interesting. It could have been cat 3.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1848193357656338774




His post on X.

@AndyHazelton
A SAR overpass from just prior to landfall suggests that #Oscar may have indeed approached major hurricane intensity, as the improved organization hinted. Not sure if this instrument has different biases in the shallow coastal waters, but hopefully this data is something that can be looked at post season. The hurricane models may not have been so crazy after all.

[Travorum]

Very interesting. It could have been cat 3.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1848193357656338774




His post on X.

@AndyHazelton
A SAR overpass from just prior to landfall suggests that #Oscar may have indeed approached major hurricane intensity, as the improved organization hinted. Not sure if this instrument has different biases in the shallow coastal waters, but hopefully this data is something that can be looked at post season. The hurricane models may not have been so crazy after all.

As Andy notes some caution is warranted given potential shoaling or land interaction effects, as is typical for backscatter-based remote sensing methods. It is worth noting that the two earlier SAR passes in similar vicinity to land (the Caicos and Inagua respectively) measured wind speeds that were in concurrence with recon observations at that time, so there may be some validity to this measurement. Regardless this is very strong evidence that Oscar was definitely stronger than 70kts at landfall, and likely considerably so.

Unfortunately SAR is not currently used operationally by the NHC (see Leslie, which had 100kt+ SAR measurements at both of its peaks), and is rarely if ever used as evidence in TCRs. I believe someone in another thread mentioned a case where SAR measurements were used as evidence for a post season bump, but if it is used at all its rare enough that I can't think of a notable example. I do have some hope that the NHC will begin using SAR data in the near future, as I believe JWTC uses it semi frequently in the pacific. IMO given that it's a similar remote sensing technology to ASCAT and SFMR, and that the model functions currently in use result in derived wind speed values very similar to SFMR and FL reduction estimates, SAR data should be treated with at least as much confidence as SFMR windspeeds (although as of late that's not a particularly high degree of confidence).

[GCANE]

Convection is now over water, south of the Cuban shore

[ChrisH-UK]

Sun rises on Oscar, there's a lot of convective towers over the hot waters around Cuba but Oscar is been affected by the terrain of Cuba.

[xironman]

It almost looks like it is reforming south of Cuba