WPAC: INVEST 97W

[Hayabusa]

WP, 97, 2024102100, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1417E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 210600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/210600Z-220600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 21OCT24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 669 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 210300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N
141.7E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED AREA OF TROUGHING
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR LLCC IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. A 210042Z ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS
MODERATE (15-20KT) WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF HIGH SHEAR TO THE NORTH, AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AND ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

[Hayabusa]

00Z

[Hayabusa]

06Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

up to medium while 98W is low

ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 22OCT24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (TRAMI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 377 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. A
220006Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WEAK LLC WITH THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KNOTS). INVEST 97W ALONG WITH INVEST 98W ARE LOCATED WITHIN A
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT FORMATION SCENARIOS.
GFS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS 97W WHILE TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH 98W TRACKING POLEWARD AND
GETTING ABSORBED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE 97W. NAVGEM AND
ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH 97W BUT SLOWLY
DEVELOP 98W AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON
THE AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT IN GFS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N
150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FULLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH ISOLATED, FLARING CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE
CURRENTLY HINDERING 98W AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. INVEST 97W
ALONG WITH INVEST 98W ARE LOCATED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT FORMATION SCENARIOS. GFS AGGRESSIVELY
DEVELOPS 97W WHILE TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH 98W TRACKING POLEWARD AND GETTING
ABSORBED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE 97W. NAVGEM AND ECMWF, ON
THE OTHER HAND, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH 97W BUT SLOWLY DEVELOP
98W AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

06z eps pretty interesting loop track...

[Hayabusa]

12z