BoB: DANA - Cyclonic Storm

[Subtrop]

98B INVEST 241019 1800 12.4N 97.5E IO 15 1006

[Pasmorade]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N
93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201456Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
FLARING CONVECTION AND SHALLOW BANDING BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98B IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30C), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL GENERALLY TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTENSIFY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Pasmorade]

Huh. What do the models say about this?

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.8N 93.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 92.20E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
201951Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98B IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28-29C), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98B WILL
GENERALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[WaveBreaking]

This already is or is close to becoming a TC

[Subtrop]

FKIN20 VIDP 230425
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20241023/0000Z
TC: DANA
NR: 01
PSN: N1618 E08954
MOV: WNW09KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 23/0600Z N1648 E08918
FCST MAX WIND +06HRS: 40 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 23/1200Z N1724 E08848
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 23/1800Z N1806 E08824
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 50 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 24/0000Z N1848 E08806
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 55 KT
RMK: NIL
NEXT MSG: 20241023/0900Z

[WaveBreaking]

[Fancy1002]

It looks like a living, pulsing blob of convection.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir