EPAC: KRISTY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 90, 2024102100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 972W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, SPAWNINVEST, ep752024 to ep902024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep902024.dat

[TallyTracker]

Is this from the remnants of Nadine or a completely separate system?

[cycloneye]

Is this from the remnants of Nadine or a completely separate system?

The TWO did not mention the remnants so it will have the Kristy name.

[cycloneye]

Is not wasting time.

[Travorum]

Microwave pass from 2 hours ago, with the rough center (linearly interpolated from 0z BT) marked by the X:


The strongest convection is in that band off to the west, but the structure under the hood is definitely there.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located more than 100 miles offshore the coast of southern Mexico
have become a little better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form within the
next day or so while the system moves westward at around 15 mph away
from the coast of Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore
of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or
storm is expected to form within the next day or so while the system
moves westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin/Delgado

[Kingarabian]

This is a TC. Not sure about the whole 90/90 thing for 12 hrs straight and continuing.

[Kingarabian]

Large feeder band and a developing CDO.

How can they look at this say it's not even a TD? Dvorak at this stage is pretty subjective but this is at least a T2.0 if not a T2.5(TS).

[Hurricane2022]

Hot take: I think this will become a powerful C5 (unofficially of course )

[zzzh]

https://i.postimg.cc/1XMVpSRJ/goes16-90-E-band02-202410211605.png
Large feeder band and a developing CDO.

How can they look at this say it's not even a TD? Dvorak at this stage is pretty subjective but this is at least a T2.0 if not a T2.5(TS).

Agreed with this being at least a TD, but I don't think that's a CDO.

[cycloneye]

TD or TS at 2 PM PDT.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that a well-defined
surface circulation is forming with an area of low pressure located
a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system also
continues to become better organized. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical
depression or storm at 2 PM PDT. This system is forecast to move
westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. Additional
information on this system, including storm warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
[b]

[/b]

[Travorum]

The ASCAT data in question, from about 16-17z. Would support a tropical storm in a few minutes.

[Travorum]

Speak of the devil:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
300 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 102.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Is this from the remnants of Nadine or a completely separate system?

The TWO did not mention the remnants so it will have the Kristy name.

One TOW did mention Nadine, but then the later ones dropped the mention.

[emeraldislenc]

Remnants of Nadine
Amazing it happened in Atlantic when the famous M storm crossed over

[Travorum]

Remnants of Nadine
Amazing it happened in Atlantic when the famous M storm crossed over

Crazy to think that had TD11-E and Nadine developed more/had their circulations remained intact over Mexico, we would have had a Kristy impacting Florida and a Milton out in the Pacific right now.

[AnnularCane]

Kristy looks a lot like Nadine.

[Yellow Evan]

Upper environment supports a strong hurricane in 3-4 days, possibly the strongest of the season, before the subtropical jet shears it. Shades of Kenneth 11.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
900 PM CST Mon Oct 21 2024

Kristy is becoming better organized this evening. Bursts of deep
convection are wrapping around the western semicircle of the
circulation with upper-level outflow also present in this region.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range between 35 to 53 kt.
The initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 40 kt, closest
to the UW-CIMSS DMINT objective Dvorak estimate.

The tropical storm is heading westward at 270/14 kt. This general
motion should continue through Thursday while Kristy moves along the
southern side of a subtropical ridge. By Friday and Saturday, the
storm will reach a weakness in the ridge caused by a cutoff low
over the north Pacific and gradually turn west-northwestward to
northwestward. The latest track forecast is quite similar to the
previous forecast and lies near the various consensus aids.

The fragmented convection seen on satellite infrared imagery seems
to indicate that there is a dry air intrusion possibly slowing
Kristy's present organization. However, atmospheric and oceanic
conditions are quickly becoming more conducive for significant to
rapid intensification. Statistical guidance from SHIPS-RII is
showing a high chance (72 percent) of 25 kt of strengthening in 24
h. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast now explicitly
forecasts this increase, making Kristy a hurricane on Tuesday and
nudging up the peak to 100 kt in 60 h. On Friday and Saturday, the
vertical wind shear is expected to increase and induce a weakening
trend. This intensity forecast lies in the middle of the guidance
envelope, between the HCCA and the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci