2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[Steve]

^^ That JMA pattern at 200mb lines up with several of the MJO models heading to favorable phases. It's 2 weeks out, so things can and will deviate. And I think it was 2022 late season that had a progged return to 2/3 that never materialized. So it's all with a grain of salt. But here's what the models are saying for the end of the month - beginning of November.

NCPE (GEFSv12) - Rotates from 5 to 6 on the 25th, into 7 on the 29th and ends like it's heading to 8 on the first (time period 10-18 to 11-1)

NCPB (GEFSv12 bias corrected) - Rotates into 6 on the 25th and 7 on the 28th and on the 7-8 line amplified on 11-1 (time period 10-18 to 11-1)

GMON (GEFSv12 Extended) - Rotates into 8 on the 5th and then heads back into the circle (time period 10-17 to 11-17)

NCFS (CFSv2 Bias Corrected) - Moves into 7 on 11-1 and dives through teh circle emerging in Phase 2 on the 14th and the 2-3 line on the 15th (time period 10-18 to 11-16)

JMAN only goes out 10 days but is heading toward 7 by the 28th but still in 6 (time period 10-18 to 10-28).

ECMF - Gets to 6 on the 24th, 7 on the 27th and then 8 on the 30th. This ensembles suggest it would be heading toward 1 (time period 10-18 to 11-1)

ECMM (ECMF Bias Corrected) - gets to 6 on the 24th, 7 on the 28th and 8 on the 30th (time period 10-18 to 11-1)

EMON (Extended Range Ensemble) - gets to 6 on the 23, 7 on the 28th, 8 on the 31st and then rotates through 8 and the very inside edge of 1 before returning to the circle on 11-6 where it stays (time period 10-17 to 11-17)

EMOM (bias corrected EMON) - Gets to 6 on the 24th, 7th on the 29th, 8 on the 31st and rotates through 8 and the edge of 1 through 11-6 (time period 10-17 to 11-17)

BOMA (Australian) - Rotates into 6 on the 23rd, 7 on the 27th, 8 on the 31st and rolls through 1 through 11-7 before returning to the circle. (time period 10-16 to 11-14)

BOMM (BOMA bias corrected) - Goes to 6 on the 20th, 7 on the 26th, 8 on the 30th, 1 on the 3rd and 2 on the 7th where it rolls through 2 until 11-10 (time period of 10-16 to 11-14 so from a couple of days ago).

[Pasmorade]

This season can't do anything except disappoint.

In my opinion, and this is a strong one. Counting storms is NOT objective, it's subjective. If we have 8 cat 5 hurricanes this season and that's all, was it slow? It's just silly and can do nothing except hurt the institutions that live or die by the numbers.

If this season ends up unusually inactive, and I'm not predicting that, maybe some improvements will result. Since we've already had a cat 5 in July, if this season ends up being unusually inactive what will that tell us?

And I think it was in this thread, hopefully quoted, that there's no spring barrier this year.

Honestly I think cold neutral is far worse (more activity) than a full la nina anyway.

Seeing as how this season has made a 2022-level recovery...in October, has featured an additional three U.S. hurricane landfalls, the first sub-900 Atlantic hurricane since 2005, and the most powerful storm to strike the Big Bend on record, I think your prediction was right.

[Category5Kaiju]

Alright, we've got a month and a half left before this season officially concludes. I gotta tell you, this season's late September-early October period was the craziest I've personally witnessed. After talks of this season going out with a wimper (with Beryl being the only significant storm of the season), it truly came back with a roaring, devastating vengeance.

As for my thoughts for the rest of the season, I still think we'll likely see 3 or so named storms after Oscar. With the lingering, fairly warm waters and the -ENSO state really setting in, I'd bet that at least one of these systems will become a major hurricane. I also think that assuming late season activity holds, this season will likely attain the threshold for hyperactivity. Not as crazy as the 200+ ACE predictions from months ago, but also definitely not a bust in terms of simply seeing your usual "above-average" activity.

[cycloneye]

More records for the season.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1847673478243090829

[Teban54]

I was busy for a day and came back to a 50 kt landfalling TS and another TS with dual hot towers that had just been declared for 2 hours. 24 hours ago, one was an orange TWO and the other was a lemon.

2024 keeps doing 2024 things... Even during an unfavorable MJO phase.

[galaxy401]

The hurricane season has now reached double digits with hurricanes. Quite a high number in comparison to number of named storms. Six of them formed in the last 30 days.

[weeniepatrol]

A solid TS that is sprawling in size and organizing quickly on satellite, halted only by immediate landfall, and an additional separate hurricane. Extremely impressive for what was supposed to be the break in between favorable MJO pulses.

[tolakram]

This season can't do anything except disappoint.

In my opinion, and this is a strong one. Counting storms is NOT objective, it's subjective. If we have 8 cat 5 hurricanes this season and that's all, was it slow? It's just silly and can do nothing except hurt the institutions that live or die by the numbers.

If this season ends up unusually inactive, and I'm not predicting that, maybe some improvements will result. Since we've already had a cat 5 in July, if this season ends up being unusually inactive what will that tell us?

And I think it was in this thread, hopefully quoted, that there's no spring barrier this year.

Honestly I think cold neutral is far worse (more activity) than a full la nina anyway.

Seeing as how this season has made a 2022-level recovery...in October, has featured an additional three U.S. hurricane landfalls, the first sub-900 Atlantic hurricane since 2005, and the most powerful storm to strike the Big Bend on record, I think your prediction was right.

My predictions stands, thanks for quoting. If one plays a numbers game and we have the most epic season but miss the numbers then it only reinforces the point that numbers is a silly metric IMO. Now what if we hit the numbers ....

TSR 24 12 6
CSU 23 12 6
NOAA 17–24 8–13 4–7

Actual so far: 15, 10, 4

My prediction in the predictions thread: 18, 11, 4 175 ACE

[kevin]

I hadn't thought of this yet but with Beryl & Milton 2024 of course has two category 5 hurricanes, which is a relatively rare occurence. Only 8 seasons since 1851 have had at least 2 cat 5s: 2024, 2019, 2017, 2007, 2005, 1961, 1933, 1932. Also kind of a crazy statistic that we've had more 2+ cat 5 seasons in the last 20 years than in the 100 years before that.

[MarioProtVI]

I hadn't thought of this yet but with Beryl & Milton 2024 of course has two category 5 hurricanes, which is a relatively rare occurence. Only 8 seasons since 1851 have had at least 2 cat 5s: 2024, 2019, 2017, 2007, 2005, 1961, 1933, 1932. Also kind of a crazy statistic that we've had more 2+ cat 5 seasons in the last 20 years than in the 100 years before that.

Would be careful with 2019, as it’s likely Lorenzo was probably never a Cat 5 at all. 1998 though is a possible candidate for two C5s given Georges was likely a brief Cat 5 - it’s max FL was 152 kt at 700mb which converts to ~137 kt at the surface and can be the case for a 140 kt peak.

[SconnieCane]

I hadn't thought of this yet but with Beryl & Milton 2024 of course has two category 5 hurricanes, which is a relatively rare occurence. Only 8 seasons since 1851 have had at least 2 cat 5s: 2024, 2019, 2017, 2007, 2005, 1961, 1933, 1932. Also kind of a crazy statistic that we've had more 2+ cat 5 seasons in the last 20 years than in the 100 years before that.

Not as crazy when you consider that pre-satellite era it was very difficult to get a confirmed Cat. 5 that didn't make landfall as such unless you had a ship that a.) Obtained pressure records and b.) Somehow stayed afloat to tell the tale. This tells me that the decade of the 1930s, with six confirmed Atlantic Cat. 5s even without satellites, must have been really something.

[weeniepatrol]

Nadine + Oscar has pushed Atlantic ACE to 145 units. Only 15 away from hyperactivity. Will the next MJO pulse be enough?

[Category5Kaiju]

Nadine + Oscar has pushed Atlantic ACE to 145 units. Only 15 away from hyperactivity. Will the next MJO pulse be enough?

Some models show this next system (assuming no pop-up storms develop between Oscar and this system, would be named Patty) becoming a slow-moving, strong hurricane that lifts to the northeast from the Caribbean. If this pans out, then hyperactivity is going to be achieved. In fact, keep in mind that Oscar still has some time left to accrue some ACE, so that 15 may very well be lower.

[Steve]

Nadine + Oscar has pushed Atlantic ACE to 145 units. Only 15 away from hyperactivity. Will the next MJO pulse be enough?

Some models show this next system (assuming no pop-up storms develop between Oscar and this system, would be named Patty) becoming a slow-moving, strong hurricane that lifts to the northeast from the Caribbean. If this pans out, then hyperactivity is going to be achieved. In fact, keep in mind that Oscar still has some time left to accrue some ACE, so that 15 may very well be lower.

I hadn't looked at the other thread yet, but the 06 GFS gets it below 1000mb 1am Halloween, runs the SE coast of Cuba as a Cat 2 (gets it down to about 969), crosses central Cuba at 973 at 18z 11-3, nicks the upper Keys at 971 12z 11/4 deepens a bit to low 960's just off the SC Coast, weakens a little bit and tries to pull away but comes back toward the NC Coast where the run ends Thursday 11/7/24 at 1am at at 976mb. Now I doubt it's going to go down like that, but if it were to do so, that's literally 7 days at Cat 2 level. I don't know how much ACE that is with 28 periods of Category 2 but it's gotta be 15.

[kevin]

Nadine + Oscar has pushed Atlantic ACE to 145 units. Only 15 away from hyperactivity. Will the next MJO pulse be enough?

Some models show this next system (assuming no pop-up storms develop between Oscar and this system, would be named Patty) becoming a slow-moving, strong hurricane that lifts to the northeast from the Caribbean. If this pans out, then hyperactivity is going to be achieved. In fact, keep in mind that Oscar still has some time left to accrue some ACE, so that 15 may very well be lower.

I hadn't looked at the other thread yet, but the 06 GFS gets it below 1000mb 1am Halloween, runs the SE coast of Cuba as a Cat 2 (gets it down to about 969), crosses central Cuba at 973 at 18z 11-3, nicks the upper Keys at 971 12z 11/4 deepens a bit to low 960's just off the SC Coast, weakens a little bit and tries to pull away but comes back toward the NC Coast where the run ends Thursday 11/7/24 at 1am at at 976mb. Now I doubt it's going to go down like that, but if it were to do so, that's literally 7 days at Cat 2 level. I don't know how much ACE that is with 28 periods of Category 2 but it's gotta be 15.

7 days at 85 kt is ~20 ACE, 7 days at 95 kt is ~25 ACE.

[kevin]

With Debby, Helene and Milton, 2024 now already has 3 hurricane landfalls in Florida. Only 5 years since 1851 have had this many direct hurricane landfalls in Florida, so not counting hurricanes passing over Florida after having made landfall in another state. If the GFS model storm would also make landfall in Florida as a hurricane that could bring the season total to 4, unprecedented in the historic database. Furthermore, no season has ever had 3 major hurricane landfalls in Florida so that's a statistic that could theoretically also still be broken. Below are the seasons with the most hurricane landfalls in Florida.

3 hurricane landfalls
2024 so far (2 MH)
2005 (2 MH)
2004 (2 MH)
1964 (0 MH)
1871 (1 MH)

2 hurricane landfalls
2022 (1 MH)
1995 (1 MH)
1953 (0 MH)
1950 (2 MH)
1948 (1 MH)
1947 (1 MH)
1945 (1 MH)
1935 (1 MH)
1933 (1 MH)
1928 (1 MH)
1926 (1 MH)
1924 (1 MH)
1916 (1 MH)
1915 (0 MH)
1906 (1 MH)
1894 (1 MH)
1888 (1 MH)
1886 (0 MH)
1882 (1 MH)
1880 (0 MH)
1877 (1 MH)
1873 (1 MH)
1870 (0 MH)
1859 (0 MH)
1852 (0 MH)

[USTropics]

With Debby, Helene and Milton, 2024 now already has 3 hurricane landfalls in Florida. Only 5 years since 1851 have had this many direct hurricane landfalls in Florida, so not counting hurricanes passing over Florida after having made landfall in another state. If the GFS model storm would also make landfall in Florida as a hurricane that could bring the season total to 4, unprecedented in the historic database. Furthermore, no season has ever had 3 major hurricane landfalls in Florida so that's a statistic that could theoretically also still be broken. Below are the seasons with the most hurricane landfalls in Florida.

3 hurricane landfalls
2024 so far (2 MH)
2005 (2 MH)
2004 (2 MH)
1964 (0 MH)
1871 (1 MH)

2 hurricane landfalls
2022 (1 MH)
1995 (1 MH)
1953 (0 MH)
1950 (2 MH)
1948 (1 MH)
1947 (1 MH)
1945 (1 MH)
1935 (1 MH)
1933 (1 MH)
1928 (1 MH)
1926 (1 MH)
1924 (1 MH)
1916 (1 MH)
1915 (0 MH)
1906 (1 MH)
1894 (1 MH)
1888 (1 MH)
1886 (0 MH)
1882 (1 MH)
1880 (0 MH)
1877 (1 MH)
1873 (1 MH)
1870 (0 MH)
1859 (0 MH)
1852 (0 MH)

Correction to my post, Kevin is geographically correct in his assessment. Three hurricanes and two majors made direct landfall:



This tied 1886 with the most hurricane strikes in on year (four in Texas):

[toad strangler]

With Debby, Helene and Milton, 2024 now already has 3 hurricane landfalls in Florida. Only 5 years since 1851 have had this many direct hurricane landfalls in Florida, so not counting hurricanes passing over Florida after having made landfall in another state. If the GFS model storm would also make landfall in Florida as a hurricane that could bring the season total to 4, unprecedented in the historic database. Furthermore, no season has ever had 3 major hurricane landfalls in Florida so that's a statistic that could theoretically also still be broken. Below are the seasons with the most hurricane landfalls in Florida.



Awesome analysis as usual. Slight appendage to this though, as 2004 had four major hurricanes strike Florida (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne):
https://i.imgur.com/EzBDJj1.png
https://i.imgur.com/x0dvbPU.png

This tied 1886 with the most hurricane strikes in on year (four in Texas):
https://i.imgur.com/7CoKs76.png
https://i.imgur.com/wp2Ahyc.png

Frances was a Cat 2 when landfall occurred in Martin County, FL.

[kevin]

With Debby, Helene and Milton, 2024 now already has 3 hurricane landfalls in Florida. Only 5 years since 1851 have had this many direct hurricane landfalls in Florida, so not counting hurricanes passing over Florida after having made landfall in another state. If the GFS model storm would also make landfall in Florida as a hurricane that could bring the season total to 4, unprecedented in the historic database. Furthermore, no season has ever had 3 major hurricane landfalls in Florida so that's a statistic that could theoretically also still be broken. Below are the seasons with the most hurricane landfalls in Florida.

3 hurricane landfalls
2024 so far (2 MH)
2005 (2 MH)
2004 (2 MH)
1964 (0 MH)
1871 (1 MH)

2 hurricane landfalls
2022 (1 MH)
1995 (1 MH)
1953 (0 MH)
1950 (2 MH)
1948 (1 MH)
1947 (1 MH)
1945 (1 MH)
1935 (1 MH)
1933 (1 MH)
1928 (1 MH)
1926 (1 MH)
1924 (1 MH)
1916 (1 MH)
1915 (0 MH)
1906 (1 MH)
1894 (1 MH)
1888 (1 MH)
1886 (0 MH)
1882 (1 MH)
1880 (0 MH)
1877 (1 MH)
1873 (1 MH)
1870 (0 MH)
1859 (0 MH)
1852 (0 MH)

Awesome analysis as usual. Slight appendage to this though, as 2004 had four major hurricanes strike Florida (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne):
https://i.imgur.com/EzBDJj1.png
https://i.imgur.com/x0dvbPU.png

This tied 1886 with the most hurricane strikes in on year (four in Texas):
https://i.imgur.com/7CoKs76.png
https://i.imgur.com/wp2Ahyc.png

Thanks for the additional information. In the 2004 image you posted, hurricane Ivan made landfall in Gulf Shores, Alabama instead of Florida. I know it's a bit silly since we're talking about a distance of about 20 miles to the Florida border so in terms of Florida impacts it doesn't really change anything. But I used a hard filter for the Florida border so even hurricanes 1 mile west of the border wouldn't count. That's the reason my overview has 3 hurricanes for 2004. And Frances was a cat 2 when it made landfall in Florida, thus leaving 3 hurricane landfalls in 2004 of which 2 were major hurricanes. But these details aside, 2004 was indeed a crazy year.

[USTropics]

With Debby, Helene and Milton, 2024 now already has 3 hurricane landfalls in Florida. Only 5 years since 1851 have had this many direct hurricane landfalls in Florida, so not counting hurricanes passing over Florida after having made landfall in another state. If the GFS model storm would also make landfall in Florida as a hurricane that could bring the season total to 4, unprecedented in the historic database. Furthermore, no season has ever had 3 major hurricane landfalls in Florida so that's a statistic that could theoretically also still be broken. Below are the seasons with the most hurricane landfalls in Florida.



Awesome analysis as usual. Slight appendage to this though, as 2004 had four major hurricanes strike Florida (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne):
https://i.imgur.com/EzBDJj1.png
https://i.imgur.com/x0dvbPU.png

This tied 1886 with the most hurricane strikes in on year (four in Texas):
https://i.imgur.com/7CoKs76.png
https://i.imgur.com/wp2Ahyc.png

Frances was a Cat 2 when landfall occurred in Martin County, FL.

With Debby, Helene and Milton, 2024 now already has 3 hurricane landfalls in Florida. Only 5 years since 1851 have had this many direct hurricane landfalls in Florida, so not counting hurricanes passing over Florida after having made landfall in another state. If the GFS model storm would also make landfall in Florida as a hurricane that could bring the season total to 4, unprecedented in the historic database. Furthermore, no season has ever had 3 major hurricane landfalls in Florida so that's a statistic that could theoretically also still be broken. Below are the seasons with the most hurricane landfalls in Florida.

3 hurricane landfalls
2024 so far (2 MH)
2005 (2 MH)
2004 (2 MH)
1964 (0 MH)
1871 (1 MH)

2 hurricane landfalls
2022 (1 MH)
1995 (1 MH)
1953 (0 MH)
1950 (2 MH)
1948 (1 MH)
1947 (1 MH)
1945 (1 MH)
1935 (1 MH)
1933 (1 MH)
1928 (1 MH)
1926 (1 MH)
1924 (1 MH)
1916 (1 MH)
1915 (0 MH)
1906 (1 MH)
1894 (1 MH)
1888 (1 MH)
1886 (0 MH)
1882 (1 MH)
1880 (0 MH)
1877 (1 MH)
1873 (1 MH)
1870 (0 MH)
1859 (0 MH)
1852 (0 MH)

Awesome analysis as usual. Slight appendage to this though, as 2004 had four major hurricanes strike Florida (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne):
https://i.imgur.com/EzBDJj1.png
https://i.imgur.com/x0dvbPU.png

This tied 1886 with the most hurricane strikes in on year (four in Texas):
https://i.imgur.com/7CoKs76.png
https://i.imgur.com/wp2Ahyc.png

Thanks for the additional information. In the 2004 image you posted, hurricane Ivan made landfall in Gulf Shores, Alabama instead of Florida. I know it's a bit silly since we're talking about a distance of about 20 miles to the Florida border so in terms of Florida impacts it doesn't really change anything. But I used a hard filter for the Florida border so even hurricanes 1 mile west of the border wouldn't count. That's the reason my overview has 3 hurricanes for 2004. And Frances was a cat 2 when it made landfall in Florida, thus leaving 3 hurricane landfalls in 2004 of which 2 were major hurricanes. But these details aside, 2004 was indeed a crazy year.

I stand corrected, three hurricanes and 2 majors made direct landfall in 2004 fully geographically based (even if the bulk of Ivan's damage was over Florida). Definitely a historic season, and hopefully not one 2024 is trying to out do 20 years later.