Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024
Satellite images indicate that Kristy has continued to gradually
become better organized during the overnight hours. A convective
burst has been occurring over the low-level center, an indication
that a central core could be forming. The cyclone also has some
impressive curved banding to the north and west, although these
bands are a bit far from the center. A pair of ASCAT passes from
22/0346 UTC and 22/0441 UTC showed tropical storm force winds in
the northern semi-circle, with vectors in the 35 to 38 kt range.
Since the time of the ASCAT passes, Kristy's convection has become
better organized, with latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB at a consensus T-3.0/45 kt. The initial intensity
is nudged upward to 45 kt for this advisory.
Kristy is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone will steer
it westward for the next 3 days or so. Friday into the weekend, a
turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected as Kristy rounds
the western periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge, and a
mid-latitude upper-level trough approaches from the west. The track
forecast is largely unchanged from the previous official forecast
and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted
that there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance at days 4
and 5, so confidence in this part of the forecast is a bit below
average.
Environmental conditions are favorable for steady strengthening,
and rapid intensification cannot be ruled out. For the next
72 h, Kristy will remain within an environment of warm ocean
temperatures, relatively weak vertical wind shear, and a moist
troposphere. Beyond 72 h, southerly or southwesterly vertical wind
shear will begin to increase over the cyclone, becoming strong in 4
to 5 days. Kristy should also cross the 26C isotherm in about 4
days and move into a much more stable environment. Therefore,
weakening should begin in 3 to 4 days, with the potential for rapid
weakening in 4 to 5 days. The intensity forecast is largely
unchanged from the previous prediction, which calls for Kristy to
peak at 100 kt in a few days, and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 14.2N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024
Satellite images indicate that Kristy has continued to gradually
become better organized during the overnight hours. A convective
burst has been occurring over the low-level center, an indication
that a central core could be forming. The cyclone also has some
impressive curved banding to the north and west, although these
bands are a bit far from the center. A pair of ASCAT passes from
22/0346 UTC and 22/0441 UTC showed tropical storm force winds in
the northern semi-circle, with vectors in the 35 to 38 kt range.
Since the time of the ASCAT passes, Kristy's convection has become
better organized, with latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB at a consensus T-3.0/45 kt. The initial intensity
is nudged upward to 45 kt for this advisory.
Kristy is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone will steer
it westward for the next 3 days or so. Friday into the weekend, a
turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected as Kristy rounds
the western periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge, and a
mid-latitude upper-level trough approaches from the west. The track
forecast is largely unchanged from the previous official forecast
and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted
that there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance at days 4
and 5, so confidence in this part of the forecast is a bit below
average.
Environmental conditions are favorable for steady strengthening,
and rapid intensification cannot be ruled out. For the next
72 h, Kristy will remain within an environment of warm ocean
temperatures, relatively weak vertical wind shear, and a moist
troposphere. Beyond 72 h, southerly or southwesterly vertical wind
shear will begin to increase over the cyclone, becoming strong in 4
to 5 days. Kristy should also cross the 26C isotherm in about 4
days and move into a much more stable environment. Therefore,
weakening should begin in 3 to 4 days, with the potential for rapid
weakening in 4 to 5 days. The intensity forecast is largely
unchanged from the previous prediction, which calls for Kristy to
peak at 100 kt in a few days, and lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 14.2N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hagen
