2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[emeraldislenc]

I don't think that is a true fact there have been several hurricanes in November that originated in November that hit Miami. Some even came from the west coast.

[HurricaneBelle]

I don't think that is a true fact there have been several hurricanes in November that originated in November that hit Miami. Some even came from the west coast.

There have only been 3 hurricanes to hit Florida in November - The "Yankee Hurricane" in 1935 which came from NE, Kate in 1985 which came from the Atlantic and moved through the Straits before hitting the panhandle, and Nicole in 2022 which came from the east. None of them came from the Caribbean. Now there have been several tropical storms to strike, some of which originated in the Caribbean, but not a hurricane.

[Jr0d]

I don't think that is a true fact there have been several hurricanes in November that originated in November that hit Miami. Some even came from the west coast.

No storm on record originated in the Carribean and hit Florida as a hurricane in November. As the previous poster said only 3 hurricanes on record have hit Florida in the month of November...so even a hurricane is rare after Halloween.

As I posted earlier, Michelle 2001 was close and brought tropical storm conditions to the Florida Keys.

This is still a phantom storm, but with pretty good model support. Upper Air forecast 10 days + out are not reliable. I am confident there will be an area of disturbed weather and broad low that develops by Halloween, anything more than that us anyone's guess at this point. Even in the Carribean, November hurricanes rarely develop.

[Steve]

I don't think that is a true fact there have been several hurricanes in November that originated in November that hit Miami. Some even came from the west coast.

No storm on record originated in the Carribean and hit Florida as a hurricane in November. As the previous poster said only 3 hurricanes on record have hit Florida in the month of November...so even a hurricane is rare after Halloween.

As I posted earlier, Michelle 2001 was close and brought tropical storm conditions to the Florida Keys.

This is still a phantom storm, but with pretty good model support. Upper Air forecast 10 days + out are not reliable. I am confident there will be an area of disturbed weather and broad low that develops by Halloween, anything more than that us anyone's guess at this point. Even in the Carribean, November hurricanes rarely develop.

I agree that around Halloween there ought to be something at least broad. Beyond that is ? Some of the MJO models are now wanting to cut back into the circle at 8/1 which would likely negate anything beyond that. However, if by the 5th or 6th we're still in 8/1/2/3 we have to consider that the peak of the season was delayed this year so something a couple weeks later than we'd expect isn't out of the question. Also there were a few occurrences this year that rarely or haven't happened within our dataset of knowledge.

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS not giving the Florida west coast/big bend a break (note this is fantasy range)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

12z GFS not giving the Florida west coast/big bend a break (note this is fantasy range)
https://i.imgur.com/BmfVTGJ.gif

my knee jerk opinion: WTF?!

Florida is officially closed for the remainder of season. Will someone please let the tropics know that?

[TallyTracker]

12z GFS not giving the Florida west coast/big bend a break (note this is fantasy range)
https://i.imgur.com/BmfVTGJ.gif

The GFS is like a record stuck on repeat. That would make me have to consider evacuating for a third time this year. Thankfully it’s fantasy land but still disturbing.

[blp]

I think as usual in that neck of the woods the GFS is jumping the gun. I don't doubt something is going to form down there but I am going to wait for the ICON, which has done quite well this year with cyclogenesis, to show us the way.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS not giving the Florida west coast/big bend a break (note this is fantasy range)
https://i.imgur.com/BmfVTGJ.gif

That is highly unlikely with a fall like jet stream pattern in place now across the gulf. North i see this get is keys/SFL a good analog is Hurricane Michelle 2001.

GFS thinks its 8/25

[SFLcane]

Pretty certain something will develop the GFS continues to move up in time and the ECMWF is just playing catchup as usual.

[HurricaneBelle]

12z GFS not giving the Florida west coast/big bend a break (note this is fantasy range)
https://i.imgur.com/BmfVTGJ.gif

Another Perrycane!

[Travorum]

12z GFS also has a much smaller TS/Hurricane near the greater Antilles out in fantasy land. Its the first I've seen it on operational models but ensembles have had a very small signal for a few runs now. GFS is hitting happy hour a bit too early today.

[toad strangler]

12z GEFS has a good size cluster in the vicinity of Jamaica at 240 hours. That's about as far as I'll look for a signal. Need the Euro to show something similar to really raise an eyebrow.

[chaser1]

12z GEFS has a good size cluster in the vicinity of Jamaica at 240 hours. That's about as far as I'll look for a signal. Need the Euro to show something similar to really raise an eyebrow.

Agreed. That would certainly be an alarm bell to me if either the EURO or the ICON were to chime in with a similar GFS solution. The other thing that I was just about to post (but SFLcane beat me to it LOL), is the fact that the GFS continues to show genesis as we move closer in time. No moving of the goal posts thus far.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles are really active, 144-240 hour animation below:

[xironman]

12z GEFS has a good size cluster in the vicinity of Jamaica at 240 hours. That's about as far as I'll look for a signal. Need the Euro to show something similar to really raise an eyebrow.

Agreed. That would certainly be an alarm bell to me if either the EURO or the ICON were to chime in with a similar GFS solution. The other thing that I was just about to post (but SFLcane beat me to it LOL), is the fact that the GFS continues to show genesis as we move closer in time. No moving of the goal posts thus far.

EC-AIFS definitely has a signal

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS has a good size cluster in the vicinity of Jamaica at 240 hours. That's about as far as I'll look for a signal. Need the Euro to show something similar to really raise an eyebrow.

Meh euro playing catchup! Not 1 gefs esemble in the gom.

[chaser1]

12z GEFS has a good size cluster in the vicinity of Jamaica at 240 hours. That's about as far as I'll look for a signal. Need the Euro to show something similar to really raise an eyebrow.

Agreed. That would certainly be an alarm bell to me if either the EURO or the ICON were to chime in with a similar GFS solution. The other thing that I was just about to post (but SFLcane beat me to it LOL), is the fact that the GFS continues to show genesis as we move closer in time. No moving of the goal posts thus far.

EC-AIFS definitely has a signal

Wow, sure does?! In fact, both show a similar pattern with a sharp cold front diving south as well (GFS about 2 days earlier). I didn't originally bother to check the AIFS primarily due to its resolution being so poor. Regardless, it clearly is picking up on low pressure forming south of Cuba in the overall time frame.

[SFLcane]

[Jr0d]

https://i.postimg.cc/yYR3BDsD/bbb.png

No thanks! Someone needs to tell the models the season is closed.

At least this still a model storm and at least a week away before we could see anything start to organize. Of course a lot can change but the ensembles are making the case that we will need to watch whatever tries to develop next week.