EPAC: KRISTY - Remnants - Discussion

[Travorum]

ADT CI# is up to 6.0 now with a raw T# of 6.6, and eye temps are definitively positive (cyclonicwx has the eye temp at +13.5C). The eye is starting to get a really circular shape on IR as well.

Strange that ADT only has +1.6C. Bad positioning again?

Not in this case, ARCHER got a pretty good position. Its partly because the image used is from 1610z so 1hr out of date, the newest ADT from 1640z has an eye temp of +11.3C. Another thing I've noticed is GOES imagery from different sources show different cloud top and eye temps (see below). The images ADT uses consistently has the warmest tops out of any source I can find, and frequently has cooler eye temps than other sources. I'm not sure what the cause of this is off the top of my head (maybe they use different bands to build the dvorak imagery? IDK), if anyone does know feel free to chime in.

ADT GOES Image:	Cyclonicwx GOES Image:	NRL GOES Image

[WaveBreaking]

[Travorum]

CI# is up to 6.2/120kt and Raw T# is now at 7.0:

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 OCT 2024 Time : 171021 UTC
Lat : 14:15:28 N Lon : 114:31:14 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.1mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.8 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +14.2C Cloud Region Temp : -72.6C

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1849142485374685595

[aspen]

With how clear that eye is, Kristy is probably approaching upper-end Cat 4 status now. Starting to get a buzzsaw look too. Quite an over-achiever.

[WaveBreaking]

Kristy is tracking into some 28-29°C waters per the GeoSST product and will eventually run into some waters too cold to support a major

[aspen]

I’d go with at least 125-130 kt right now. Thick but slightly asymmetrical W ring, stadium effect showing up, eye temps in the mid-upper teens C, ADT supporting T>6.2 (and we know it can sometimes underestimate high-end systems like this).

I think the NHC will go with 120 kt at 5pm (so probably 115 kt for the 18z BT with +5 kt like the last 2 advisories), in line with ADT and perhaps blending some lower satellite estimates. The upcoming manual fix will probably be T#6.0.

[Travorum]

T#6.5 manual fix:

TXPZ29 KNES 231828
TCSENP

A. 12E (KRISTY)

B. 23/1800Z

C. 14.1N

D. 114.7W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 5.5 AND AN EADJ OF +1.0 RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.5. THE MET
IS 5.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 6.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[Travorum]

130kt(!) Cat 4 at 18z best track:

EP, 12, 2024102318, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1147W, 130, 932, HU

Kristy is officially the strongest EPac Hurricane of the season

[Hurricane2022]

130kt(!) Cat 4 at 18z best track:

EP, 12, 2024102318, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1147W, 130, 932, HU

Kristy is officially the strongest EPac Hurricane of the season

Honestly surprised they did it but anyway this is likely going to be our next C5 of 2024. Congrats Kristie Nadine.

[aspen]

130kt(!) Cat 4 at 18z best track:

EP, 12, 2024102318, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1147W, 130, 932, HU

Kristy is officially the strongest EPac Hurricane of the season

I stand corrected lol. Didn’t expect them to go that high on the 18z BT.

[Category5Kaiju]

130kt(!) Cat 4 at 18z best track:

EP, 12, 2024102318, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1147W, 130, 932, HU

Kristy is officially the strongest EPac Hurricane of the season

Honestly surprised they did it but anyway this is likely going to be our next C5 of 2024. Congrats Kristie Nadine.

I dare Kristy to try beating the 180/897 of Milton though.

[Hurricane2022]

130kt(!) Cat 4 at 18z best track:

EP, 12, 2024102318, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1147W, 130, 932, HU

Kristy is officially the strongest EPac Hurricane of the season

Honestly surprised they did it but anyway this is likely going to be our next C5 of 2024. Congrats Kristie Nadine.

I dare Kristy to try beating the 180/897 of Milton though.

That's an impossible feat without recon sorry.

[Kingarabian]

SAB came in clutch. This leaves a 7.0 on the table.

[CrazyC83]

Honestly, I see T7.0 as well. I'd go up to 140 kt personally...

To beat Milton, we'd need to start getting close to T8.0. No EPAC storm not named Patricia has ever approached that.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

...KRISTY CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 115.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES



Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Kristy continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. The eye has
cleared over the past few hours, and surrounding very deep
convection prevails with infrared cloud tops as cold as -75 to -80
deg C. Satellite data suggests continued strengthening since SAB
provided a T6.5 Dvorak classification at 18z, and the initial
intensity is set to 135 kt, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS
ADT estimates.

Major Hurricane Kristy is moving westward around 17 kt along the
southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the Eastern Pacific
and Western United States. This fast westward motion is forecast to
continue over the next 24-30 h before turning to the west-northwest
this weekend as an upper-level trough impinges on the western extent
of the ridge. Kristy is forecast to encounter a highly sheared
environment this weekend and the system will become decoupled, with
the vertically shallow vortex steered by the low-level ridge late in
the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the latest
NHC track forecast.

Kristy remains a small hurricane in a weak shear environment over
warm SSTs. The satellite presentation shows persistent convection,
showing the potential for additional near-term strengthening as long
as an eyewall replacement cycle does not commence soon. The latest
NHC forecast remains near the top of the guidance envelope and has
max winds around 140 kt, peaking at Category 5 strength. Slow
weakening will begin on Friday as Kristy encounters increasing
shear, and more rapid weakening will set in this weekend as the
storm moves into an increasingly hostile environment with high shear
and cooler SSTs. The storm is forecast to weaken to a post-tropical
low by 96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.1N 115.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.0N 118.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 14.1N 121.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.4N 128.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 19.5N 130.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/1800Z 20.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Adams

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Looks like we'll have a run at Cat 5 tonight. Beautiful storm.

[CrazyC83]

After it peaks though, it's a fast elevator ride down! Within 72 hours we may have Bones.

[Hurricane2022]

As per NHC official data, Kristy deepened...
...60 mbars in 24 hours (988 at 21z yesterday to 928 at 21z today),
...44 mbars in 12 hours (972 at 09z to 928 at 21z today),
...and 28 mbars in 6 hours (954 at 15z to 928 at 21z today).

Wow.

[galaxy401]

Some of the past Category 5s in the Pacific have all been within the same week of October: Patricia, Willa, and Otis. That seems to be the time to spawn a Cat 5 over there.