2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

Like always.... timing is EVERYTHING and would cause a variety of different outcomes. One such scenario that I find worrisome would be a similar track but one which might occur just north of Cuba, then resulting in a potential extreme S. Florida/Keys (first) landfall, followed by a second Florida W. Coast impact. Hopefully thereafter, any storm track would then continue NE rather than NNE where Georgia and the Carolina have already had their share of flooding.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS forms a low as early as next Wed and develops it into a significant hurricane with another track into the EGOM. We have seen those “S” tracks before and it’s no bueno (Sandy)

[WaveBreaking]

12Z GFS forms a low as early as next Wed and develops it into a significant hurricane with another track into the EGOM. We have seen those “S” tracks before and it’s no bueno (Sandy)

https://i.postimg.cc/XNdNWVjR/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-312.gif

Also an added bonus with that WPAC-style additional development down-shear of the storm that you usually see at the peak of typhoon season.

[chaser1]

I'd have to verify but I think that's 6 straight GFS run Florida hurricane landfalls. For obvious reasons, GFS is having difficulties with the downstream steering pattern and continues to show differing solutions for the strong short wave dropping into the CONUS mid-section. Hopefully the EURO will have a better handle on this as we get closer into it's wheelhouse range.

[chaser1]

12Z GFS forms a low as early as next Wed and develops it into a significant hurricane with another track into the EGOM. We have seen those “S” tracks before and it’s no bueno (Sandy)

https://i.postimg.cc/XNdNWVjR/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-312.gif

Also an added bonus with that WPAC-style additional development down-shear of the storm that you usually see at the peak of typhoon season.

Yeah, that alone seemed really weird to see. Not sure if this would also find itself to continue to deepen while moving west through most of the Caribbean? I question that southward motion given the overall steering flow.

[CFLHurricane]

I was relieved once the first autumnal front moved through the Florida peninsula, but we’ve seen this song and dance from the GFS before and I also expect the NHC to throw up a lemon with genesis consistently predicted by next Wednesday. It appears the high that’s given us this wonderful break isn’t doing it for free and will draw up a witches brew in time for the holidays.

[gatorcane]

The GFS ensembles are very active yet again

[toad strangler]

Hmmmm… GFS bias?
 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1849475905694961669

[psyclone]

Well at least broad swaths of the FL coast are pre destroyed. Whatever happens...happens. at this point I'm climo humpin' over cliff jumpin'...

[SFLcane]

GEFS heading north...

[gatorcane]

The entire GFS ensemble suite has jumped west in the 12Z and closely follows the GFS op through the long-range of 270 hours.

[WaveBreaking]

12Z GFS forms a low as early as next Wed and develops it into a significant hurricane with another track into the EGOM. We have seen those “S” tracks before and it’s no bueno (Sandy)

https://i.postimg.cc/XNdNWVjR/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-312.gif

Also an added bonus with that WPAC-style additional development down-shear of the storm that you usually see at the peak of typhoon season.

Yeah, that alone seemed really weird to see. Not sure if this would also find itself to continue to deepen while moving west through most of the Caribbean? I question that southward motion given the overall steering flow.

The GFS has this oddly move due south towards Venezuela and then do a 180 while bombing out past 240h and well into fantasy range. And judging by the wind barbs, the entire monsoon trough connected to the storms also moves south before bouncing north. Definitely a pretty wild GFS run especially for a non-happy hour one.

[tomatkins]

12Z GFS forms a low as early as next Wed and develops it into a significant hurricane with another track into the EGOM. We have seen those “S” tracks before and it’s no bueno (Sandy)

https://i.postimg.cc/XNdNWVjR/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-312.gif

It also births a baby storm that drifts down by Trinidad.

[blp]

12z Euro continues to show development but still slower than the GFS. Although aligns with the GFS with genesis track close to Jamaica. CMC is the slowest now of the three.

[jlauderdal]

GEFS heading north...

https://i.postimg.cc/bwcXLRT6/bbb.png

Inside of 240, I'm becoming interested. Today is the anniversary of Wilma, a game-changing storm for SE Florida.

[SFLcane]

GEFS heading north...

https://i.postimg.cc/bwcXLRT6/bbb.png

Inside of 240, I'm becoming interested. Today is the anniversary of Wilma, a game-changing storm for SE Florida.

more like a little over 100hrs in terms of formation. For now NHC ignoring

[SFLcane]

EPS now developing in 7-8 day window. Almost time for the NHC to mention in the TWO.

[Pasmorade]

Hmmmm… GFS bias?
https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1849475905694961669?s=46

Ah yes, a multi-model modelcane.

[Cachondo23]

Also an added bonus with that WPAC-style additional development down-shear of the storm that you usually see at the peak of typhoon season.

Yeah, that alone seemed really weird to see. Not sure if this would also find itself to continue to deepen while moving west through most of the Caribbean? I question that southward motion given the overall steering flow.

The GFS has this oddly move due south towards Venezuela and then does a 180 while bombing out past 240h and well into fantasy range. And judging by the wind barbs, the entire monsoon trough connected to the storms also moves south before bouncing north. Definitely a pretty wild GFS run especially for a non-happy hour one.

https://i.imgur.com/u40QiU6.gif

What a unique run for that “fantasy” storm in the NE Caribbean, from north to south then back north… what is going on here…

[Gums]

Where is that fall cold front that could help us in Florida?

Gums wonders....