EPAC: KRISTY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RadarOmega/status/1849508539766575429

[Travorum]

SAR pass from 14z, near when Kristy was at its ADT peak.

[Travorum]

T7.0 SAB fix, we might have a Cat 5 in a few minutes when BT comes out

A. 12E (KRISTY)

B. 24/1800Z

C. 14.0N

D. 121.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T7.0/7.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED IN W AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF
7.0 AFTER +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 7.0 DUE TO A SLOW DEVELOPING TREND
OVER LAST 24 HOURS. PT AGREES WITH DT AND MET. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

EDIT: This was corrected to T6.5

TXPZ29 KNES 241834
TCSENP
CCA

A. 12E (KRISTY)

B. 24/1800Z

C. 14.0N

D. 121.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR REANALYSIS. WMG EYE SURROUNDED IN B AND
EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF 6.5 AFTER +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 6.5
DUE TO A STEADY TREND IN SYSTEM. PT AGREES WITH MET AND DT. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...NGUYEN

[Sciencerocks]

145 knts in my estimates.

[WaveBreaking]

[Travorum]

Third time's the charm, Cat 5:

EP, 12, 2024102418, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1210W, 140, 926

[Yellow Evan]

SAB made an erroneous 7.0 fix. They’ve downed to 6.5.


TAFB did come through with 7.0 though.

[aspen]

SAB made an erroneous 7.0 fix. They’ve downed to 6.5.


TAFB did come through with 7.0 though.

Has SAB ever had a T7.0 fix they didn’t walk back on this year? Kirk was the most clear-cut T7.0 and they still went with T6.5.

The slightly breaking W ring is probably why SAB corrected to T6.5.

[Travorum]

SAB made an erroneous 7.0 fix. They’ve downed to 6.5.


TAFB did come through with 7.0 though.

Has SAB ever had a T7.0 fix they didn’t walk back on this year? Kirk was the most clear-cut T7.0 and they still went with T6.5.

The slightly breaking W ring is probably why SAB corrected to T6.5.

Yep, it was changed from WMG eye surrounded in W to surrounded in B

Original (erroneous): WMG EYE SURROUNDED IN W AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 7.0 AFTER +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT.



Corrected: CORRECTED FOR REANALYSIS. WMG EYE SURROUNDED IN B AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF 6.5 AFTER +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT.

[Teban54]

[WaveBreaking]

Without a doubt one of the prettiest hurricanes of the EPAC season so far. And it’s nice to finally see such a strong storm that’s not threatening land

[Kingarabian]

Not sure how SAB corrected to surrounded by B and embedded in B when the W ring was intact prior to 1730z.Then at 1730Z the ring briefly breaks and they redo the analysis only for the W ring to remain in place since 1735z. Seems deliberate unless they have a time window to sit and monitor each frame.

[Kingarabian]

Cat.5 is a great feat considering how slow of a season it has been for the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

SAB made an erroneous 7.0 fix. They’ve downed to 6.5.


TAFB did come through with 7.0 though.

Has SAB ever had a T7.0 fix they didn’t walk back on this year? Kirk was the most clear-cut T7.0 and they still went with T6.5.

The slightly breaking W ring is probably why SAB corrected to T6.5.

Kirk was never a T7.0. Every little break counts.

[aspen]

SAB made an erroneous 7.0 fix. They’ve downed to 6.5.


TAFB did come through with 7.0 though.

Has SAB ever had a T7.0 fix they didn’t walk back on this year? Kirk was the most clear-cut T7.0 and they still went with T6.5.

The slightly breaking W ring is probably why SAB corrected to T6.5.

Kirk was never a T7.0. Every little break counts.

Kirk got a T7.0 from ADT, SAB was T6.5, which I don’t get because it had a perfect W ring and a ~20C eye. It looked better on the Dvorak filter than Kristy does now, with a more solid W ring.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure how SAB corrected to surrounded by B and embedded in B when the W ring was intact prior to 1730z.Then at 1730Z the ring briefly breaks and they redo the analysis only for the W ring to remain in place since 1735z. Seems deliberate unless they have a time window to sit and monitor each frame.

SAB fixed at 18z anyway.

[cycloneye]

Is oficial now. Cat 5.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

...KRISTY BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Satellite imagery continues to show a circular eye that has been
warming through the afternoon, with varying degrees of clearing.
While the inner eye has not been as clear over the past few hours,
subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have
either increased or held steady, with a data-T value of T/7.0 and
T/6.5, from TAFB and SAB respectively. UW-CIMSS objective intensity
estimates have increased as well. Using an average of these
intensity estimates and latest trends in satellite images, the
initial intensity is set to 140 kt for this advisory. Therefore,
Kristy has strengthened into a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Kristy's forward motion remains steady, estimated at 270/14 kt while
being steered by a ridge over the northeastern Pacific. The
hurricane will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge
over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest and then the
north-northwest occurring through this weekend as a trough to the
west begins to influence Kristy's motion. The system will
rapidly weaken by the end of this weekend, with the remnants then
turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow. The
latest NHC track forecast has once again shifted slightly to the
right, closer to the consensus aids, but remains on the southwest
side of the guidance envelope.

For about the next 24 hours, Kristy looks to remain in a favorable
environment characterized by warm sea surface temperatures and light
vertical wind shear. Some slight fluctuations are possible in the
short term, especially if the system has another eyewall replacement
cycle. The environment then rapidly becomes hostile as the hurricane
enters an area of stronger vertical wind shear, drier air, and
cooler sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance remains
insistent on rapid weakening occurring through the end of the
forecast period. Model-simulated satellite imagery also mirrors this
trend, suggesting that Kristy will lose convection and become
post-tropical by 72 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, and open
into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast also follows
these trends with only minor adjustments made this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 14.2N 121.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.1N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.8N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 21.7N 130.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 22.2N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 28/1800Z 21.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/B. Adams

[Hurricane2022]

I would go with 150 kts now. Hopefully Kristy is able to cool down her cloud tops even more tonight so we could see the NHC waking up with 145 - 155 kts in the next advisories.

[CrazyC83]

Kristy has one more DMAX opportunity with good conditions. I could certainly see it strengthening a bit more if it takes advantage of that tonight assuming an ERC does not happen.

Most likely, the bottom will fall out of it by late tomorrow and it will be falling completely apart this weekend.

[Teban54]

Wow.