WPAC: INVEST 99W

[Subtrop]

99W INVEST 241024 0600 13.4N 148.6E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low. Talking about which is going to be the dominant

ABPW10 PGTW 240630
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240630Z-250600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240251ZOCT2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24OCT24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (TRAMI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 121.2E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.0N 151.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
232303Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION, WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, AND AN
AREA OF STRONG WINDS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL GENERALLY
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4N
148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, WITH A
POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITH A MUCH LARGER
ROTATION THAT EXTENDS FAR TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE AT
THE MOMENT THAT FULLY CLOSED CIRCULATION IS PRESENT, HOWEVER, THERE IS
NO DOUBT THAT THERE IS A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON THE INSIDE EDGE
OF A BROAD ENHANCED WIND FIELD EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99W IS IN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
MIXED, WITH THE GFS SHOWING THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS,
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS INVEST 98W TO THE SOUTHWEST BEING THE MAIN
CIRCULATION THAT DEVELOPS. REGARDLESS, THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
99W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND BRING
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS TO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

Jma upgraded to Kong-rey but don't know which invest is it

[Pasmorade]

Jma upgraded to Kong-rey but don't know which invest is it

Seems like it's 98W.

[Hayabusa]

Jma upgraded to Kong-rey but don't know which invest is it

Seems like it's 98W.

99W it is...

23W KONG-REY 241025 0000 13.5N 145.4E WPAC 25 1000
98W INVEST 241025 0000 11.3N 148.3E WPAC 15 100