Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[WeatherBoy2000]

I think the issue is that it's still really only the gfs/gefs that's developing it within the 7-day timeframe, the model has well known over development bias in that area. There also seems to be a potential secondary development area in a similar location to Oscar, most notably highlighted by the eps, but still shows up on the gfs/gefs that is throwing a wrench into all of this. With that said I think something will be highlighted shortly.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the disturbance has moved to off the coast of Yucatan overnight.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Three consecutive runs showing Bermuda threats. Long range but consistent.

[tropicwatch]

Thread should be northwest Caribbean now. The vorticity at the 925mb level has seen an increase this morning.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

[caneman]

Thread should be northwest Caribbean now. The vorticity at the 925mb level has seen an increase this morning.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

And all of the models have it originating well Southeast. If I'm in the Keys and Miami, I'm still closely watching.

[chaser1]

What a convoluted mess A disturbance in the far W Caribbean with zero model support for immediate development in spite of Climotogogy. Meanwhile, it's window for development in that location looks to be a few days at most given increasingly volatile upper level westerlies across the N GOM seemingly forecast to sink further south with time. Meanwhile, recent runs of the GFS suggest development further east that potentially could impact Haiti but I have to believe that would suggest development of an altogether seperate area of disturbed weather yet to be identified. There's no strong signal from ICON or EURO of that playing out either. As I see it, either the increasingly favorable MJO signal results in a somewhat unexpected development of a small compact TC east of Yucatan this weekend.... OR perhaps the Caribbean might escape any foreseeable development altogether. Seems to me that the NHC is hedging toward the latter solution.

[Nimbus]

If the LLC is forming off Belize it may not track into Mexico.
The former low looks like it did get too close to Nicaragua and dried out.
Until the models see something off Belize you really can't expect anybody at the NHC to jump.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ever since the timing of development got into the 144-168hr timeframe, it’s largely been stuck there and if anything has moved back. I’m not convinced nothing will come of this eventually, but I’m a lot less bullish on the prospect of another notable storm than I was a few days ago. Guess we’ll see.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Ever since the timing of development got into the 144-168hr timeframe, it’s largely been stuck there and if anything has moved back. I’m not convinced nothing will come of this eventually, but I’m a lot less bullish on the prospect of another notable storm than I was a few days ago. Guess we’ll see

I think we’ll see something but not from this disturbance. The models push this one ashore then spin up the next burst of moisture.

[aspen]

The broadening of the disturbance due to another low to the east (in this case, to the NE around the Greater Antilles) reminds me a lot of the GFS runs for pre-Milton in the short to medium range. That eastern low confused the GFS in regards to the actual size and structure of the precursor disturbance, and then Milton formed far faster and ended up far more compact than the model anticipated. Wonder if we may get a similar situation here. Hard to tell.

[Ubuntwo]

The areas of showers and scattered vorticity over the western Caribbean appear unrelated to potential development here in the 7-14 day range.

[aspen]

12z GFS shows development occurring in the very SW Caribbean on Oct 30-31. So far it doesn’t seem to get tangled up in a broader disturbance like on the last day or two of runs.

[tropicwatch]

I think it will probably go inland before anything develops but there has been a flare up of convection where the vorticity seems to be. Not seeing any pressure drops in that area.

[aspen]

Fairly strong GFS run, doesn’t interact as much with that other low.

CMC shows a potential hurricane, though it develops a few days later than the GFS.

ICON tries to develop something weak in between the timeframes of the GFS and CMC.

[TomballEd]

I don't blame NHC for not biting on it. Euro ensemble support from mid week runs is almost completely gone. The blowup off Belize doesn't have any surface reflection best I can tell looking at vis satellite, and even if it did, it should soon go inland.

By the time the 12Z GFS develops it, mean flow in the Caribbean is from the West, shear is quite strong in the Caribbean although GFS thinks the system develops an anticyclone quickly enough to protect the low it forecasts. I'm not sure about that at all. Not a complete write off, the Canadian is still on board.

[xironman]

To anyone thinking this is being constantly pushed back here is 18z on Wed the 30th from the Tuesday 12z run



Here is today's 12z for the same time



Probably about 12hrs slower....

[WeatherBoy2000]

Just want to point out that the CMC now has hurricane development and there's still a lot of GEFS/GEPS ensemble support for something at the very end of this month into the first week of October.

[Jr0d]

Well the GFS Ensemble members have been consistent. Almost exactly what it was showing 60 hours ago.

Recent run:


60 hours ago:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Some
gradual development of this system will be possible through the end
of next week while it meanders or drifts northeastward over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[AnnularCane]

A lemon drop.