Texas Fall 2024

[bubba hotep]

[Brent]

Finally some fall weather showing up

Of course our average high is about to be in the 60s so it's nothing unusual for this time of year. We've already had hard freezes by now in other years

Im just glad it might finally rain for real. This has been a ridiculous stretch

[Stratton23]

GFS and CMC keep things on the wetter side through the end if their runs respectively, hopefully this is a long term pattern change

[Ntxw]

This is a good sign.

[Stratton23]

Looks like the unsettled weather could stick around through the beginning of the 2nd week of november according to noaa, sub tropical jet stream looks to be active, very good sign

[Brent]

Looks like the unsettled weather could stick around through the beginning of the 2nd week of november according to noaa, sub tropical jet stream looks to be active, very good sign

At least through election day it appears and temps are finally much closer to normal consistently(again 40s for lows is normal now)

[Stratton23]

Man if the 18z GFS is to be believed, we could be in for unsettled and much cooler weather for the next couple of weeks starting next week

[ravyrn]

I was visiting my mom in Maydelle this afternoon and was surprised to have a brief downpour for about five minutes around 6pm. I was surprised as I hadn't seen any rain forecast for today. I am looking forward to the rain next week and hopefully some cooler temperatures.

[Brent]

GFS has highs in the 40s here on Election Day

That's gonna be a shock to the system if that verifies

[Ntxw]

The last day of October, Halloween, will save us in what could have been a complete shutout of measurable rain. On average October is the second wettest month of the year for us.

[wxman22]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central
Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level
jet translates eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move east-southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected along and ahead of the front during the
afternoon. Sufficient instability combined with strong low-level
flow, and lift associated with the upper-level trough will be
favorable for severe storms across parts of the region.

The most favorable area for severe storms appears to be from north
Texas and Oklahoma northeastward into western and northern Missouri.
GFS forecast soundings along this corridor during the late afternoon
suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots, with 700-500 mb
lapse in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. If this environement can
materialize, supercell development with large hail and severe wind
gusts could occur. A chance for very large hail will be possible
with the more intense cells. An isolated tornado threat also appears
possible.

[wxman22]

WPC QPF amounts. At least at this time things are looking good for north Texas and points north.

[Stratton23]

Looking ahead, ensembles are definitely trending towards cooler/ chillier weather during the first week of november and beyond, with the GFS/ CMC models showing a very impressive high latitude blocking pattern, overall i do think the first couple weeks of november look to stay unsettled with possibly colder conditions going forward

[Ntxw]

WPC QPF amounts. At least at this time things are looking good for north Texas and points north.

https://i.postimg.cc/nLkvDM7C/Screenshot-2024-10-27-at-10-52-56-WPC-Forecasts-Pivotal-Weather.png

It's a sign the upper levels are cooling. Eventually with seasonal gradient it will traverse southward with each passing front. It's so late this year due to excessive warmth/stability above.

[Brent]

Wouldn't be 2024 without one last run at a record high tomorrow

That high of 65 on Halloween is gonna feel amazing

[Ntxw]

Wouldn't be 2024 without one last run at a record high tomorrow

That high of 65 on Halloween is gonna feel amazing

Even average right now feels amazing, we're that desperate.

Ensembles shows some better PNA heading towards mid November, that alongside the MJO moving through more favorable phases. Still ??? on air quality but at least there's that../

[Stratton23]

GFS 18z has an extended stretch of 50’s and 60’s for highs all across texas with another front in about 10 days , man that would be amazing

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 357 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024/
/Wednesday through Sunday/

An amplified longwave trough will be well established across the
Rockies and Intermountain West by Wednesday morning, with a fast
southwesterly upper level flow regime in place across North
Central Texas. Concurrently, pronounced surface to 850 mb
troughing in the lee of the Rockies will be facilitating strong
southerly flow and robust moisture advection from the Gulf. In
response, precipitable values will climb toward the 90th
climatological percentile through the morning hours. The
combination of this favorable moisture environment with the
arrival of strong upward vertical motion ahead of the mean trough
will lead to the development of scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity across the entire area from midday onward. Instability
and forcing for ascent will be favored generally north of I-20
through the afternoon, and the highest PoPs are reflected in these
zones, trending to lower values southward into Central Texas.

As the mean trough ejects from the Rockies late Wednesday and
early Thursday, a cold front will drop southward across the Red
River into North Texas. Convergence ahead of this boundary, aided
by the favorable placement of the right entrance region of the
upper jet, should lead to a focused axis of convection across the
northernmost counties from around dusk Wednesday to midnight.
Instability and shear as advertised by the GFS and NAM solutions
appear sufficient to support the development of some strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms across this general area in the
evening, with some discrete supercells even briefly possible. At
this time, large hail and strong wind gusts would be the primary
threat. The last convective warnings in the Fort Worth forecast
area occurred on September 25th, so it`s prudent for partners and
the public to refresh themselves on their severe weather action
plans as we transition to a more active weather pattern.

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across
most of the forecast area through the pre dawn hours Thursday,
with precipitation ending from west to east as the day
progresses. As the lead upper trough lifts into the Midwest, subsidence
and drying will lead to a brief cessation of rain across most of the
region late Thursday into Thursday night. However, synoptic scale
conditions will again become favorable for scattered shower
activity by Friday, as a new upper trough evolves over the
Southwest U.S. A plentiful moisture regime, coupled with
persistent isentropic ascent, will promote recurrent periods of
light to moderate rainfall from late Friday on through Sunday. The
net effect of this wet pattern from Wednesday onward should lead
to the accumulation of at least 1 to 2 inches of rain across most
of North Central Texas. Some isolated spots will likely approach 3
inch totals by Sunday, though the combination of dry soils and
(mostly) slow rainfall rates should minimize the potential for any
flooding issues.

In addition to the promising news about the rainfall, our
daytime temperatures will also take a pleasant turn toward levels
that are at least a bit closer to those we should be witnessing at
this point in the fall. Widespread highs in the 70s will be the
rule from Thursday into Sunday, though a few lower 80s will creep
back into the picture by the end of the weekend. The combination
of cloud cover, south winds, and an absence of renewed cold air
intrusions will limit our overnight lows to the 60s predominately.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Wouldn't be 2024 without one last run at a record high tomorrow

That high of 65 on Halloween is gonna feel amazing

Even average right now feels amazing, we're that desperate.

Ensembles shows some better PNA heading towards mid November, that alongside the MJO moving through more favorable phases. Still ??? on air quality but at least there's that../

I think if we can get periods of -epo/wpo this winter, we will have opportunities at winter events. A -ao/nao on its own isn't enough with a unfavorable pacific. A +pna is better east of us than here correct?

[Stratton23]

We would want the PNA to go more negative ( not overly negative though) a +PNA would shove alot of the cold air east of texas