2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[blp]

12z Euro Ens.

[chris_fit]

Still there on the 18z GFS... Same time of genesis so time frame moving up. Let's see if how much this run ends.

[floridasun]

this nut i leaving south sfl on nov 1dont need mom be her self with bf in her house me worry in LA BAD timing for this be close south fl if get in cone by nov 1 or after i been looking mofels runs their been all over place

[HurricaneBelle]

Still there on the 18z GFS... Same time of genesis so time frame moving up. Let's see if how much this run ends.

This one hits Haiti going through the Windward Passage, the Bahamas, heads back west and south to hit central Cuba, moves back NE through the Bahamas again and then OTS, nearly clipping Berumuda before being absorbed by a front.

[mantis83]

Still there on the 18z GFS... Same time of genesis so time frame moving up. Let's see if how much this run ends.

This one hits Haiti going through the Windward Passage, the Bahamas, heads back west and south to hit central Cuba, moves back NE through the Bahamas again and then OTS, nearly clipping Berumuda before being absorbed by a front.

Misses florida also with the ensembles trending east!

[USTropics]

A quick roundup of the 00z models and some thoughts. Genesis increasingly likely, with all of the models showing various levels of development. The CMC and ICON have a dipole setup—typical CAG style development associated with the positive MJO pulse phase (i.e., where we have two areas of low pressure that form, but in this instance the axis is displaced more northeastward):

00z CMC


00z Icon (only goes out to hour 180)


Track still remains largely uncertain, as we can see drastic differences in the upper-level pattern at 240 hours in this animation of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC:

[xironman]

I like how the GFS keeps hinting at a Fujiwhara solution, reminds me of the Canadian 10 years ago

[AJC3]

Subsequent posts about the system forecast to develop in the SW Caribbean Sea can be posted in the thread started by Luis (cycloneye). Thanks.

[Steve]

You already know I been talking about the MJO since before Oscar. Climate Forecast System model has us in Phases 2 and 3 from the 9th to the 23rd and 1 and 8 beginning on the 3rd. If so expect at least 2 named systems to probably finish off the western basin 2024.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ncfs.shtml

Euro is not quite as aggressive.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... emon.shtml

Bias corrected Australian is similar to CFS but more in the bottom of the circle rather than phases 2-3

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... bomm.shtml

CFS has occasionally been predictive this season. Keep an eye on the 200 velocity potential forecasts after you run surface models in the coming days and you’ll see if it got it right or was an outlier. Regardless, we are getting at least 1 named system after Halloween which I think you can take to the bank.

[Teban54]

Drunk Hour GFS

[MarioProtVI]

Drunk Hour GFS

https://i.postimg.cc/SRYPcMzj/image.png

That run is probably the only way 2024 would brute force itself to 200 ACE, given the 0/30 probably produces 20-30 here, the cutoff system becoming a TC (and regenerating actually!) and then meandering around the subtropics while eventually becoming another major probably another 20 and the third system (a hurricane but probably not long lived), another 5 or so, which would be a total of 45-55 additional ACE on top of the 145 right now. That run would put us at 18-13-6 and around 185-200 ACE, which would miraculously be in range of the original predicted forecasts. I don’t think we’ll get 3 hurricanes, but with the 2020-like MJO pulse coming (and what 2020 did there) and what this season has done since late September, I’m not ruling anything out.

[WaveBreaking]

Main models showing some subtropical/tropical development due to instant-occlusion cyclogenesis over adequate (~21°C) SSTs.









Source: Bader, et al.

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like this guy will steal the name "Patsy" from that future Carib big one.

[ConvergenceZone]

Lots of folks were saying that this would be a back loaded season compared to a normal season. I guess we will have to wait and see if that's true. I mean October is normally fairly active anyway, since it's not that far from the September Peak. So I guess when they say backloaded they mean late October and November. I guess we will see if that's true.

[sasha_B]

Lots of folks were saying that this would be a back loaded season compared to a normal season. I guess we will have to wait and see if that's true. I mean October is normally fairly active anyway, since it's not that far from the September Peak. So I guess when they say backloaded they mean late October and November. I guess we will see if that's true.

I mean, it's already fair to call it backloaded just on the basis of how much more active October has been this year relative to the typical peak months of August and September, even if Beryl is a pretty substantial 'counterweight' on the front end. In terms of ACE (not the best metric, but i think it works here), October 2024 was as active as August 2024 and September 2024 combined, and generated more than 3x the 1991-2020 climatological norm for the month; anything we see from here on out will just be pushing the load further back.

[ConvergenceZone]

Lots of folks were saying that this would be a back loaded season compared to a normal season. I guess we will have to wait and see if that's true. I mean October is normally fairly active anyway, since it's not that far from the September Peak. So I guess when they say backloaded they mean late October and November. I guess we will see if that's true.

I mean, it's already fair to call it backloaded just on the basis of how much more active October has been this year relative to the typical peak months of August and September, even if Beryl is a pretty substantial 'counterweight' on the front end. In terms of ACE (not the best metric, but i think it works here), October 2024 was as active as August 2024 and September 2024 combined, and generated more than 3x the 1991-2020 climatological norm for the month; anything we see from here on out will just be pushing the load further back.

Fair enough. Then I think it's fair to say that just the first half of October would be backloaded since it's been relatively quiet since then. We might be one or two more out to sea storms the rest of the season and that's pretty normal as we do often get a storm or two form in late October and November.

[zzzh]

In addition to the west Caribbean AOI, EC, GFS and CMC all have signals on a low latitude wave just east of the Caribbean at day 10 frame.

[Steve]

GFS 18z is nuts. I’m not much following Caribbean thread yet because there is plenty of time. Caribbean system gets in the Gulf, stalls briefly, weakens and then gets picked up by a low latitude conus trough only to merge and fujiwara with the low crossing Cuba. It all looks too weak because that’s almost sandy to the south but a low eating two tropical systems? Some MJO models have us in 2/3 until mid November. While MJO in November isn’t the same thing as June-October, you still get low pressures and storms in 2/3.

[chaser1]

Just as a reminder, exactly "which" particular models were forecasting the MJO to be enhancing 8 & 1 for the last few days of October and first week of November? Looking at Satellite, Caribbean basin conditions look rather volatile with nothing suggestive of impending development. Furthermore, model support for the SW Caribbean development has really dropped off. I wouldn't right-off November altogether but I'm beginning to think that the Atlantic's last "best shot" to produce an impactfull TC may have passed. My guess is that NHC may lower its TWO for the Southwest Caribbean to 0/20 at 8:00 am.

I just wish we had a Florida sweeping cold front to celebrate the season end.

[Steve]

Just as a reminder, exactly "which" particular models were forecasting the MJO to be enhancing 8 & 1 for the last few days of October and first week of November? Looking at Satellite, Caribbean basin conditions look rather volatile with nothing suggestive of impending development. Furthermore, model support for the SW Caribbean development has really dropped off. I wouldn't right-off November altogether but I'm beginning to think that the Atlantic's last "best shot" to produce an impactfull TC may have passed. My guess is that NHC may lower its TWO for the Southwest Caribbean to 0/20 at 8:00 am.

I just wish we had a Florida sweeping cold front to celebrate the season end.

Primarily the CFS and Australian, but almost all of them got to the edge of 7/8 today or tomorrow. This is what we have as of now:

GEFS Bias Corrected


CFSv2


EC Bias Corrected


Australian Bias Corrected

^^ 2 days ago