Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/30)

#61 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 27, 2024 11:12 am

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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/30)

#62 Postby sasha_B » Sun Oct 27, 2024 11:47 am

Today's 12z GFS shows a much weaker solution than the two preceding runs, so I think it's still too soon to say that model-forecast intensity is trending back up, but regardless, the EPS is coming closer to agreement with the GEFS re:number of ensemble members that take this somewhere, and the 10/31~11/01 timeframe that the GFS has been set on is getting closer, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the development chances on the TWO hold steady or even go up this evening. Notably, the CMC now seems to be on board with the GFS's insistence on the disturbance eventually becoming a strong TC, although it does show the initial low-pressure area taking longer to get organised.
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/30)

#63 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sun Oct 27, 2024 11:52 am

12Z Canadian still bullish
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/30)

#64 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Sun Oct 27, 2024 11:58 am

sasha_B wrote:Today's 12z GFS shows a much weaker solution than the two preceding runs, so I think it's still too soon to say that model-forecast intensity is trending back up, but regardless, the EPS is coming closer to agreement with the GEFS re:number of ensemble members that take this somewhere, and the 10/31~11/01 timeframe that the GFS has been set on is getting closer, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the development chances on the TWO hold steady or even go up this evening. Notably, the CMC now seems to be on board with the GFS's insistence on the disturbance eventually becoming a strong TC, although it does show the initial low-pressure area taking longer to get organised.


I don't think the gfs is trending in any direction outside development occurring, it's been and still remains all over the place in regard to track and intensity.
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#65 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 27, 2024 12:28 pm

Up to 40%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward
or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi


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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#66 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 27, 2024 12:54 pm

WeatherBoy2000 wrote:
sasha_B wrote:Today's 12z GFS shows a much weaker solution than the two preceding runs, so I think it's still too soon to say that model-forecast intensity is trending back up, but regardless, the EPS is coming closer to agreement with the GEFS re:number of ensemble members that take this somewhere, and the 10/31~11/01 timeframe that the GFS has been set on is getting closer, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the development chances on the TWO hold steady or even go up this evening. Notably, the CMC now seems to be on board with the GFS's insistence on the disturbance eventually becoming a strong TC, although it does show the initial low-pressure area taking longer to get organised.


I don't think the gfs is trending in any direction outside development occurring, it's been and still remains all over the place in regard to track and intensity.

The GFS’ intensity is very dependent on how much this disturbance interacts with another disturbance just north of the Greater Antilles. It could be overdoing the interaction, like it did with pre-Milton and the eastern Gulf low.
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#67 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 27, 2024 12:57 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:12Z Canadian still bullish


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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#68 Postby WaveBreaking » Sun Oct 27, 2024 1:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:12Z Canadian still bullish


https://i.postimg.cc/WbCkfCQ8/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh120-240.gif


Never seen the Canadian get that low before in terms of pressure
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#69 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Sun Oct 27, 2024 1:35 pm

aspen wrote:
WeatherBoy2000 wrote:
sasha_B wrote:Today's 12z GFS shows a much weaker solution than the two preceding runs, so I think it's still too soon to say that model-forecast intensity is trending back up, but regardless, the EPS is coming closer to agreement with the GEFS re:number of ensemble members that take this somewhere, and the 10/31~11/01 timeframe that the GFS has been set on is getting closer, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the development chances on the TWO hold steady or even go up this evening. Notably, the CMC now seems to be on board with the GFS's insistence on the disturbance eventually becoming a strong TC, although it does show the initial low-pressure area taking longer to get organised.


I don't think the gfs is trending in any direction outside development occurring, it's been and still remains all over the place in regard to track and intensity.

The GFS’ intensity is very dependent on how much this disturbance interacts with another disturbance just north of the Greater Antilles. It could be overdoing the interaction, like it did with pre-Milton and the eastern Gulf low.


Yeah I've noticed on the weaker runs it interacts more with this secondary system. There's also the question if this secondary system will even be notable, the nhc doesn't have anything marked there. The cmc shows a straightforward solution where it's a non-factor and we end up with a typical late season Caribbean monster.
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#70 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 27, 2024 1:49 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Seems likely the season has one more punch to it. Let's just hope it doesn't target Florida again.

I agree....I hope our friends in Florida do not have to suffer thru another cyclone....I do not trust systems this season that have repeatedly formed in the NW Caribbean...the NHC outlook states this system will track northward or northeastward...I realize it's early in the evolution of this system...to say one way or another if Florida will be impacted or not...I have no idea what players are in action that control the steering of what eventually may become a cyclone....but if I live in Florida...I am watching the progress of this system....again....I hope this stays only a rainmaker....wherever it goes...
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#71 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 27, 2024 1:59 pm

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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#72 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 27, 2024 2:12 pm

12Z Euro doesn't really consolidate it but brings in NE then turns it NW towards the NW Caribbean, similar to the CMC, with the CMC being much stronger. I think the 12Z GFS is way too far east since the Euro and CMC show a similar upper air pattern.

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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#73 Postby jconsor » Sun Oct 27, 2024 2:28 pm

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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#74 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 27, 2024 2:53 pm

Oh oh... :eek:

Image

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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#75 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 27, 2024 2:55 pm


Can you please describe this illustration?.....what does this show?....thanks!...
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#76 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 27, 2024 2:59 pm

underthwx wrote:

Can you please describe this illustration?.....what does this show?....thanks!...


Its the 12z EPS ensembles showing a bend back westward similar to the CMC and GEFS which would certainly makes things rather interesting and the intensity ceiling could also be very high potentially.
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#77 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 27, 2024 3:27 pm

SFLcane wrote:
underthwx wrote:

Can you please describe this illustration?.....what does this show?....thanks!...


Its the 12z EPS ensembles showing a bend back westward similar to the CMC and GEFS which would certainly makes things rather interesting and the intensity ceiling could also be very high potentially.

That is troubling to say the least....Floridians need to remain updated and vigilant with this system....and I am trying not to be an alarmist....but as you indicate with your illustration....this may potentially impact the region in the coming days....the NHC updates will be important....and need to be paid attention to....this particular area of the Carribean has been the origin of weather woes for many this season....I am interested in what the environment will be like....as far as steering patterns....shear....etc....will there be inhibiting conditions aloft...thar will either aid....or limit any potential development?.....alot to consider here.....and I know yall will provide clarity and answers to the many questions on everyone's minds.....thankyou for your reply!....
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#78 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 27, 2024 3:36 pm

If this has already been asked....my apologies....but is this broad low...that is forecast to form in the NW Caribbean....a result of the Central America Gyre?.....this seems to be some sort of a pattern this particular season?....
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#79 Postby WaveBreaking » Sun Oct 27, 2024 3:57 pm

underthwx wrote:If this has already been asked....my apologies....but is this broad low...that is forecast to form in the NW Caribbean....a result of the Central America Gyre?.....this seems to be some sort of a pattern this particular season?....


Yeah, the Caribbean disturbance’s vorticity comes from a CAG that’ll spin up in a few days, but the other system that some models show forming near the Greater Antilles comes from a trough dipping down and interacting with the monsoon trough.
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Re: Low Pressure to develop in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (0/40)

#80 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 27, 2024 4:07 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:
underthwx wrote:If this has already been asked....my apologies....but is this broad low...that is forecast to form in the NW Caribbean....a result of the Central America Gyre?.....this seems to be some sort of a pattern this particular season?....


Yeah, the Caribbean disturbance’s vorticity comes from a CAG that’ll spin up in a few days, but the other system that some models show forming near the Greater Antilles comes from a trough dipping down and interacting with the monsoon trough.

Thanks for your reply....also....I am mistaken when I said the Northwest Carribean....the area of interest is the Southwest Carribean?...my apologies....
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