Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[WaveBreaking]

If this has already been asked....my apologies....but is this broad low...that is forecast to form in the NW Caribbean....a result of the Central America Gyre?.....this seems to be some sort of a pattern this particular season?....

Yeah, the Caribbean disturbance’s vorticity comes from a CAG that’ll spin up in a few days, but the other system that some models show forming near the Greater Antilles comes from a trough dipping down and interacting with the monsoon trough.

Thanks for your reply....also....I am mistaken when I said the Northwest Carribean....the area of interest is the Southwest Carribean?...my apologies....

Yes it is

[SFLcane]

Sure..

[tropicwatch]

Sure..

https://i.imgur.com/fpnRht0.gif

That would be amazing if it occurred

[SFLcane]

Nothing has formed yet but a possible analog could be 1950 hurricane king.

Really tricky to predict all this zig zagging!

[AutoPenalti]

Sure..

https://i.imgur.com/fpnRht0.gif

Florida would be shielded by the incoming trough.

[SFLcane]

Sure..

https://i.imgur.com/fpnRht0.gif

Florida would be shielded by the incoming trough.

You're banking on a 10 day trof? Really tricky to predict all this zig zagging! GEFS/ECM ensembles show something diffirent. Id place a bet on the cmc is been pretty consistent rather then the island tour gfs.

[Pasmorade]

Sure..

https://i.imgur.com/fpnRht0.gif

That would be amazing if it occurred

Not for the people in Hispaniola or the Bahamas, who'd get in that run, a Cat 2/3

[Jr0d]

Still plenty of heat near S. Florida and the Bahama to support a string hurricane...the Caribbean has enough heat for a strong major. While its is concerning that the long range models are hinting at a favorable upper air environment in 10 days or so over south Florida, it is too far out to be reliable.

[AutoPenalti]

Sure..

https://i.imgur.com/fpnRht0.gif

Florida would be shielded by the incoming trough.

You're banking on a 10 day trof? Really tricky to predict all this zig zagging! GEFS/ECM ensembles show something diffirent. Id place a bet on the cmc is been pretty consistent rather then the island tour gfs.

Using Climatology, the odds are high.

[Zonacane]

Florida would be shielded by the incoming trough.

You're banking on a 10 day trof? Really tricky to predict all this zig zagging! GEFS/ECM ensembles show something diffirent. Id place a bet on the cmc is been pretty consistent rather then the island tour gfs.

Using Climatology, the odds are high.

It is November, we don't know what the track will be.

[emeraldislenc]

I think this year has proven climatology is not too important. Let's wait until something forms!

[FireRat]

Yep, we now have an Orange down there in the Caribbean. Something to keep a close eye on, we'll surely get better idea as to where it will likely head once it gets a well-defined low pressure center and named an Invest or even Depression as we end October. Nov Climo favors a Cuba / Jamaica threat and then NE out to the ATL, or even a "Wrong Way Lenny" type event.

[psyclone]

A true November hurricane hit for FL would be rare although Nicole and Eta are both recent impactful November events. A northeast track up an out east of FL is a possibility or even a wrong way Lenny event...there is a ton of ocean heat down there.

[ThunderForce]

00z GEFS...

[xironman]

Canadian very consistent on a large storm

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Euro and ICON still don’t develop this.

[xironman]

Euro and ICON still don’t develop this.

The Euro spins out a low level vort out of the gyre which dies hitting Cuba, the gyre is still there at the end of the run.



The ICON has almost the same location as the Canadian, at the same time, but much much weaker

[tropicwatch]

Might be low pressure setting up with this disturbed weather just north of Panama. Metar and buoy reports currently indicate a possible circulation and pressures are lower in that region.

[wzrgirl1]

Canadian very consistent on a large storm

https://i.imgur.com/jgFEbzz.png

Just watched Cantore who said, IF something forms it would be very large and if the high pressure begins to erode it would force the system north to then northwest towards the east coast. Please do not read into this anymore than what it is. It is still 7-10 days away.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward
or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Adams