Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward
or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

[floridasun]

hope dont come toward south fl i going out town and mom will be here south fl dont need tropical weather hit south fl i hope best to all islands in paths if this form

[WeatherBoy2000]

Important to keep in mind about the recent weaker gfs runs:

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1851052390138724538




 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1851052393120584073

[chaser1]

I've been away from here for the past week as I vacationed in Florida. However, I was monitoring models from there. It does seem that this potential system will not be impacting Florida. It may not even develop. Predicted flow pattern next week would favor either a track west into Central America or northeast, passing well south of Florida. Personally, I'm all for no developing, as I'm in the lead in the office hurricane contest and any development after October 30th, breaks the tie and causes me to lose to a tiebreaker for the second year in a row. I need to pick a later date for the last named storm formation. I have the 28th, my tied coworker has Nov. 2.

Even better than picking a later date might be to wait out everyone else's entry/selection, and pounce on a date immediately after all other chosen "last named storm entries" have been submitted

[cycloneye]

We expect a lot of rain in PR in the next few days with a combination of remnant fronts, a trough and the caribbean low pressure. This from the NWS San Juan:

A broad surface high-pressure building over the western Atlantic is
promoting moderate to fresh east-to-northeast winds across the
northeastern Caribbean. Under these northeasterly steering winds, a
meandering frontal boundary to our north will move over the islands
today through early Wednesday. As shower and cloud coverage
increases over the islands, daytime temperatures will decrease by a
few degrees across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Furthermore, another front will arrive across the area on Thursday
as the surface high centers near Bermuda. Therefore, a wetter
pattern is expected to unfold across the area, with showers and
thunderstorms increasing in areal coverage. In addition, a polar
trough is forecast to move over the region by Thursday, providing
more instability and favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development. Meanwhile, over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, a broad
area of low pressure is forecast to develop, and this will continue
to promote the pooling of tropical moisture under southerly winds
across the Caribbean. Urban and small stream flooding is expected
each day across the islands, with localized flash flooding and
mudslides in areas of steep terrain.


&&

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

The most recent guidance continues to suggest a deep mid-to
upper-level trough across the forecast area by the end of the
workweek. This weather feature will create favorable conditions
for thunderstorm development. A broad area of low pressure at the
surface is expected to develop under the influence of the trough,
and a southerly wind flow is expected to prevail from Friday
onwards. This pattern usually favors the pooling of tropical
moisture over the islands.

A wet and unstable period could unfold during the end of the
month/beginning of November as the National Hurricane Center is
monitoring an area of low pressure that is likely to develop over
the southwestern Caribbean Sea. They anticipate a gradual
development late this week or over the weekend as the system
begins to drift northward or northeastward and potentially
approach the forecast area. This area of low pressure continues to
have a 40 percent chance of development in the next 7 days.

[wxman57]

I've been away from here for the past week as I vacationed in Florida. However, I was monitoring models from there. It does seem that this potential system will not be impacting Florida. It may not even develop. Predicted flow pattern next week would favor either a track west into Central America or northeast, passing well south of Florida. Personally, I'm all for no developing, as I'm in the lead in the office hurricane contest and any development after October 30th, breaks the tie and causes me to lose to a tiebreaker for the second year in a row. I need to pick a later date for the last named storm formation. I have the 28th, my tied coworker has Nov. 2.

Even better than picking a later date might be to wait out everyone else's entry/selection, and pounce on a date immediately after all other chosen "last named storm entries" have been submitted

Entries are sent in blind - you don't know what anyone else has selected for numbers and last named date.

[xironman]

Its pretty bad when the CMC seems like the most sane model running

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift
northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

[ronjon]

Global models both operational and ensembles are converging on low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in 5 to 7 days. 00z Euro has a broad 1005 mb low in NW Caribbean, 00z ICON has 999 mb low south of JAM, CMC has 998 mb low in NW Caribbean with the GFS, EPS, and Canadian emsembles all on board too. It's still a long way out but the signal is getting stronger for development in the NW Caribbean with the system moving slowly NW or N into the GOM.

[canes92]

Seems like the deadline for this storm keeps getting pushed off.

[CourierPR]

Global models both operational and ensembles are converging on low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in 5 to 7 days. 00z Euro has a broad 1005 mb low in NW Caribbean, 00z ICON has 999 mb low south of JAM, CMC has 998 mb low in NW Caribbean with the GFS, EPS, and Canadian emsembles all on board too. It's still a long way out but the signal is getting stronger for development in the NW Caribbean with the system moving slowly NW or N into the GOM.

The NHC says it will move NE or N into the Central Carribbean.

[AnnularCane]

Global models both operational and ensembles are converging on low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in 5 to 7 days. 00z Euro has a broad 1005 mb low in NW Caribbean, 00z ICON has 999 mb low south of JAM, CMC has 998 mb low in NW Caribbean with the GFS, EPS, and Canadian emsembles all on board too. It's still a long way out but the signal is getting stronger for development in the NW Caribbean with the system moving slowly NW or N into the GOM.

Wasn't it supposed to develop this week?

[SFLcane]

Global models both operational and ensembles are converging on low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in 5 to 7 days. 00z Euro has a broad 1005 mb low in NW Caribbean, 00z ICON has 999 mb low south of JAM, CMC has 998 mb low in NW Caribbean with the GFS, EPS, and Canadian emsembles all on board too. It's still a long way out but the signal is getting stronger for development in the NW Caribbean with the system moving slowly NW or N into the GOM.

The NHC says it will move NE or N into the Central Carribbean.

Majority if not all the EPS, GEFS and GEPS ensembles are in the NW caribbean.

[wzrgirl1]

Global models both operational and ensembles are converging on low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in 5 to 7 days. 00z Euro has a broad 1005 mb low in NW Caribbean, 00z ICON has 999 mb low south of JAM, CMC has 998 mb low in NW Caribbean with the GFS, EPS, and Canadian emsembles all on board too. It's still a long way out but the signal is getting stronger for development in the NW Caribbean with the system moving slowly NW or N into the GOM.

The NHC says it will move NE or N into the Central Carribbean.

Majority if not all the EPS, GEFS and GEPS ensembles are in the NW caribbean.

That is not good for south florida right? Isn't a cold front supposed to swing down in the middle to end of next week?

[toad strangler]

A snippet from Michael Lowry's most recent update. Regarding the long term...

Since the system could still fester for the next 7 to 10 days, we’ll check back on the trends, but for now this isn’t a worry for us stateside. Even if the system outlasts the high pressure steering to its north, reinforcing wind shear along the shorelines of the continental U.S. will be a stiff impediment to overcome once November rolls in.

[SFLcane]

The NHC says it will move NE or N into the Central Carribbean.

Majority if not all the EPS, GEFS and GEPS ensembles are in the NW caribbean.

That is not good for south florida right? Isn't a cold front supposed to swing down in the middle to end of next week?

Florida hurricane strikes are quite rare as we get into Nov not impossible. If your looking for any cool down in SFL or FL for that matter you will not enjoy the next 3-4 months. Expecting above normal temps with desert like conditions developing.

[SFLcane]

[WeatherBoy2000]

Global models both operational and ensembles are converging on low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in 5 to 7 days. 00z Euro has a broad 1005 mb low in NW Caribbean, 00z ICON has 999 mb low south of JAM, CMC has 998 mb low in NW Caribbean with the GFS, EPS, and Canadian emsembles all on board too. It's still a long way out but the signal is getting stronger for development in the NW Caribbean with the system moving slowly NW or N into the GOM.

Wasn't it supposed to develop this week?

It was really only the gfs/gefs that was showing development occurring this week, all the rest of the models were a few days into November. The gfs is known to being too trigger happy with this kind of development.

[hipshot]

The NHC says it will move NE or N into the Central Carribbean.

Majority if not all the EPS, GEFS and GEPS ensembles are in the NW caribbean.

That is not good for south florida right? Isn't a cold front supposed to swing down in the middle to end of next week?

I know there is a cold front moving through north Texas Wednesday/Thursday but I don't know how far south it gets.

[chaser1]

Global models both operational and ensembles are converging on low pressure developing in the SW Caribbean in 5 to 7 days. 00z Euro has a broad 1005 mb low in NW Caribbean, 00z ICON has 999 mb low south of JAM, CMC has 998 mb low in NW Caribbean with the GFS, EPS, and Canadian emsembles all on board too. It's still a long way out but the signal is getting stronger for development in the NW Caribbean with the system moving slowly NW or N into the GOM.

Wasn't it supposed to develop this week?

The GFS recently had gone on a pretty steady roll of consecutive forecasts depicting development of a TS on November 1st. I was subjectively basing that off the forecast time at the point when the model first depicted a 1000 mb low for this disturbance. The 0Z from last night went all the way out to Nov 5 however and then the 6Z this a.m. came back with development on Nov 2, so there is some variability here. Naturally, this is simply "one tool" and no individual model should ever be viewed literally. We'll see if the 12Z run rolling out now more or less reverts to forecasting a 1000 mb low in the Caribbean around the Nov 1/2 time frame, or whether the GFS and other Globals push back development a few days further out. The various ensembles are probably the best tool to determine whether the time frame seems to move closer or if the goal posts are indeed getting further pushed back. One thing I am beginning to see though is that both the GFS and EURO seem to be backing off on any near-term progression of any strong cold front/sharp trough down toward the N. GOM. Seems like the tropics are still trying to enforce its Easterlies pattern just a little bit longer. Whether this verifies will have a lot to do with near to mid-term storm track in the event something does form in the next 4-8 days. Beyond that, steering is just too hard to forecast during this seasonal transition.