WPAC: KONG-REY - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

98W.INVEST

WP, 98, 2024102106, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1544E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium while 97W downgraded

ABPW10 PGTW 230330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/230330Z-230600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23OCT24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (TRAMI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 124.4E, APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 230300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.0N 141.7E HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO INVEST ONLY AND IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.2N 150.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES
C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AND MERGE
WITH A WIDE SWATH OF ELEVATED WINDS THAT WILL WRAP INTO THE LLC FROM
THE W-SW THEN TRACK GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD, REACHING GUAM
AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS IN 2-3 DAYS, AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
98W WILL THEN TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIL A LONG
SWATH OF WIND SURGE IN AND AROUND THE MARIANAS FOR A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) IS NO LONGER
SUSPECTED FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z

[underthwx]

Getting very active there Hayabusa!....whats your thoughts on this Invest?...

[Hayabusa]

Getting very active there Hayabusa!....whats your thoughts on this Invest?...

We have to watch out for model trends, latest GFS 06z instead of recurving has it tracking now towards Taiwan... early runs for the would be Trami the GFS wanted it to track poleward then recurve...

[Hayabusa]

Jma tc warning and jtwc tcfa

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS wants to hit the Philippines

[Hayabusa]

It's hard to tell if this is the JMA showing as TD, or they see two vortices as one and using a centroid... anyway 00z eps

HFSA makes it near cat 4 at the end of the run and looks like following the GFS route...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This def is gonna be our biggest ACE producer this year

[ChrisH-UK]

And this is a tropical storm. I think the models are going to be under performing on this one.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like it will be fully wrapped around shortly

[underthwx]

98W.INVEST

WP, 98, 2024102106, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1544E, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

WPAC remains active Hayabusa.....I haven't looked at JTWC as of yet.....what are your thoughts on this system?...

[underthwx]

Looks like it will be fully wrapped around shortly

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/6869/u1PN5W.gif [/url]

That's a great image of Kong-Rey....

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/squirtleinhk/status/1851058344535953742

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades.

2421(Kong-rey)
Issued at 2024/10/29 00:45 UTC
Analysis at 10/29 00 UTC
Grade TY
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N17°50′ (17.8°)
E127°20′ (127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of 50-kt wind area 150 km (80 NM)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 560 km (300 NM)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1851079857918050536

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1851215452086645018

[Travorum]

That escalated quickly:

Platform: RCM-2
Acquisition Date: 2024-10-29 09:44:18 UTC
Storm Name: WP232024 / KONG-REY
Storm ID: WP23
Storm Center Longitude: 126.343
Storm Center Latitude: 18.014
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 43.660
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 102.06
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 104.43
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 108.55
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 108.07
RMax (nmi): 22.00 - 37.00

24 hours ago SAR barely had 65kt+ winds.

[cycloneye]

Now cat 4.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1851284187879256478