WPAC: KONG-REY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane2022]

Gosh.....

[kevin]

This is one of the most incredible IR presentations I've ever seen. ADT is now at T6.5 and the CI of 6.6 supports 130 kt. ADT was consistent with SAR which showed 109 kt at 09:44 UTC, ADT had 110 kt at that timestamp. As such I think Kong-Rey's current intensity is indeed 120 - 130 kt (DPRINT and AiDT support 116 kt and 124 kt, respectively, but slightly underestimated the system earlier today by 5 kt).

[WaveBreaking]

And I was just about to accuse this system of being a Bebinca repeat yesterday

[SconnieCane]

Interesting that although the WPAC naming does not operate on six-year cycles like the other main Northern Hemisphere basins, seems we are seeing all the big names from 2018 crop up again this year. Even Krathon, the replacement for Mangkhut, showed up.

[underthwx]

This is one of the most incredible IR presentations I've ever seen. ADT is now at T6.5 and the CI of 6.6 supports 130 kt. ADT was consistent with SAR which showed 109 kt at 09:44 UTC, ADT had 110 kt at that timestamp. As such I think Kong-Rey's current intensity is indeed 120 - 130 kt (DPRINT and AiDT support 116 kt and 124 kt, respectively, but slightly underestimated the system earlier today by 5 kt).

https://i.imgur.com/xgvcsBW.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/mhwu9tL.jpeg

Absolutely a monster cyclone....

[Ed_2001]

After a 7 year storm drought, Taiwan is about to have its 4th MH landfall in the span of 14 months. (plus Krathon’s very unusual west coast strike)

[Hurricane2022]

This is AURA.

So it looks like that we're going to see our 3rd C5 TC in Oct 2024 in the next few hours. Expect this to intensify to atleast 155 kt tomorrow. Pray for Taiwan!

[Hurricane2022]

Holy mesovortices!  https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1851373977958052290


 https://x.com/xoriwx/status/1851366467582701764

[aspen]

This is AURA.
https://imageshack.com/i/pocZX8bfp https://imageshack.com/i/pnfGRHArp
So it looks like that we're going to see our 3rd C5 TC in Oct 2024 in the next few hours. Expect this to intensify to atleast 155 kt tomorrow. Pray for Taiwan!

155 kt is likely impossible with this structure. The pressure gradient and wind field are both far too broad to get to upper echelon intensifies. However, it’s gonna make this a very rough storm for Taiwan.

[Hurricane2022]

[WaveBreaking]

This is AURA.
https://imageshack.com/i/pocZX8bfp https://imageshack.com/i/pnfGRHArp
So it looks like that we're going to see our 3rd C5 TC in Oct 2024 in the next few hours. Expect this to intensify to atleast 155 kt tomorrow. Pray for Taiwan!

155 kt is likely impossible with this structure. The pressure gradient and wind field are both far too broad to get to upper echelon intensifies. However, it’s gonna make this a very rough storm for Taiwan.

I could see a scenario like Typhoon Nabi from 2005 (140kt/898mbar) where the pressure gets very low, but due to the large eye (Nabi’s was 59mi wide), the winds don’t match up.

[WaveBreaking]

[StormChaser75]

[Hurricane2022]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 OCT 2024 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 19:02:24 N Lon : 125:03:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 926.6mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Looks like we're not going to see Kong-Rey becoming a C5 very soon

[kevin]

A blend of the recent intensity estimates (within the last 6 hours) gives a current intensity estimate of 130 - 135 kt.

ADT = 927 mb / 127 kt (CI 6.5)
AiDT = 136 kt
DPRINT = 139 kt
SATCON = 924 mb / 129 kt

Blend = 926 mb / 133 kt

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow. Actual donut looking typhoon.

[Teban54]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1851420669642236270

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1851450699365638311