Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[wzrgirl1]

I am not comfortable with this set up. Could it still go OTS?

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally
northward over the west-central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Blake

[mantis83]

Latest euro seems to have dropped development all together. Hopefully other models will follow suit…..

[xironman]

First time I have seen something interesting at the mid levels, never an ascat when you want one

[Nimbus]

First time I have seen something interesting at the mid levels, never an ascat when you want one

https://i.imgur.com/WOT8mSn.gif

The "Gyre" monsoonal low over Panama has been spontaneously producing these convection bursts off Nicaragua.
Upper level winds haven't been favorable and most just drifted inland and dried out.
Probably shear from the NNE will blow this storm cluster apart.

[xironman]

First time I have seen something interesting at the mid levels, never an ascat when you want one

https://i.imgur.com/WOT8mSn.gif

The "Gyre" monsoonal low over Panama has been spontaneously producing these convection bursts off Nicaragua.
Upper level winds haven't been favorable and most just drifted inland and dried out.
Probably shear from the NNE will blow this storm cluster apart.

Shear is not bad near the coast an has generally been moving east. Convergence and divergence are there, but no vorticity to speak off. Hence the wish for ascat

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally
northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I am not comfortable with this set up. Could it still go OTS?

Most likely it doesn't develop at all

[TomballEd]

Ensemble Euro still has a moderately strong signal for development, most weak, but not all, and a few have NW movement into the Gulf before a curve back towards Florida. Most members miss Florida, and Euro ensembles not suggesting anything *too* strong.

NHC 40% may be a smidge conservative, maybe 50% is a better number, but they have college degrees in this stuff, many have doctorates, and this is what they do for a living. NHC thinks there is a 60% chance this doesn't become a tropical cyclone

[psyclone]

We haven't budged from 40 development odds for awhile...getting stuck like that is a fork in the road that often leads to decreasing odds and ultimately nothing happening at all.

[cycloneye]

We haven't budged from 40 development odds for awhile...getting stuck like that is a fork in the road that often leads to decreasing odds and ultimately nothing happening at all.

Not saying it will happen the same way with this area but the aoi that NHC had as the precursor of Milton was between 30% and 40% for a few days and that thread got 613 replies and 31 pages. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=124360

[blp]

Icon really ramps this up.

[xironman]

Looking at ICON, GFS and CMC we generally finally have agreement on a storm in the southern gulf next week. Kudos to the CMC which has been pretty steady on its runs.

[MetroMike]

Icon really ramps this up.

https://i.ibb.co/dGLf7Ct/sfcwind-mslp-caribbean.png

12Z GFs is showing a similar outcome in the Gulf for a change.

[SFLcane]

Wilma 2.0...

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Wilma 2.0...

https://i.postimg.cc/hvc2WqRZ/vvvv.gif

969 mbar. I recall Wilma being a little more intense.

[SFLcane]

Wilma 2.0...

https://i.postimg.cc/hvc2WqRZ/vvvv.gif

969 mbar. I recall Wilma being a little more intense.

Lol who mentioned intensity? Was reffering to track mostly many days out but its something to keep an eye on it seems like finally some consensus this afternoon on something developing in the carib. Conditions look favorable and ssts near sfl and the caribbean are still plenty warm.

[cycloneye]

No change.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of the week. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[xironman]

Definite trough, yeah ascat

[Jr0d]

ICON has a very similar solution to the CMC. Given how the ICON has performed this year, this is not good for the Florida Keys... 10 days out though so currently not worried about it.

We shall see if this becomes a trend.

Next week we have the Powerboat Races in Key West, that is scheduled to run through November 10th. This is one of the busiest times of the year for the area, with all the extra people a scenerio like the CMC is showing would be very bad.